02/17/2026
Is 2026 the Rebound Year for Commercial Real Estate?
The February numbers are in, and the data points to a major shift. After a period of "wait and see," investors are moving off the sidelines.
Here is the Kingswell Capital Group market pulse for February 2026:
📊 The Big Picture: $56 Billion Forecast New reports from CBRE project Canadian commercial real estate investment will climb to $56B this year—an 8% jump from 2025. The days of hesitation are fading as pricing clarity returns to the market.
🏢 Office Sector: The "Flight to Quality" is Real While national vacancy rates have stabilized, the real story is in the details. In major hubs like Montreal, we are seeing a massive divergence. "Trophy" assets (Class A/AAA) are seeing vacancy rates as low as 6%, while older stock lags behind. Tenants aren't just looking for space; they are looking for amenities, tech, and transit.
🏭 Industrial: The 2026 Inflection Point Industrial remains the backbone of the portfolio, but it’s evolving. The forecast predicts small-to-mid-bay properties will outperform large distribution centers this year. Note: Keep an eye on the CUSMA review in July—trade stability will be key for this sector.
💸 Interest Rates & Financing With the Bank of Canada holding the policy rate at 2.25% in late January, we are entering a period of rate stability. This predictability is exactly what borrowers needed to start underwriting deals with confidence again.
💡 The Kingswell Takeaway: The window of opportunity is opening before competition fully heats up. Whether you are looking to refinance a multi-family portfolio or acquire a Class A industrial asset, the math is starting to pencil out differently than it did six months ago.
Let's run the numbers on your next deal.
📩 DM or contact Kingswell Capital Group to discuss your 2026 financing strategy.