10/16/2026
Economics expects a hold on October 28. RBC’s October forecast doesn’t anticipate its first rate hike until 2027. The September inflation report, scheduled for October 19, will be especially important. What this means for mortgage holders
Variable-rate mortgages: A hold means no immediate Bank of Canada-driven change to prime.
Fixed-rate mortgages: Fixed rates can still rise because they’re influenced by bond yields, not directly by the overnight rate.
Renewals: Don’t assume a Bank of Canada hold means lenders will stop increasing fixed rates.
Homebuyers: Focus on affordability, qualifying and mortgage structure rather than trying to predict one announcement.
October 28 may be less about whether rates change and more about what Tiff Macklem signals for December 9 and 2027. Renewal is a reset. Don’t waste it.