http://www.linkedin.com/in/lloydsoftoronto

David Lloyd Private Wealth Advisor, Toronto, ON (2026)

04/19/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

Equity markets in Europe were closed yesterday for Easter, whilst in the US indices were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ both down -0.1% and the S&P 500 flat.

However, this follows a more volatile day last Thursday: European equity markets were higher, with the FTSE 100 up +0.5% and Eurostoxx 600 up +0.7%. That said, US markets sold off during the day, with the S&P 500 ending down -1.2%, led by the NASDAQ down -2.1% driven by higher bond yields.

Bond yields have moved higher over the past few days, with the US 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 12bps on Thursday and moving another 2bps higher yesterday to 2.86%. The UK 10-year yield is up to 1.94% this morning, approaching 2%. Oil has also ticked up over the past few days, whilst gold briefly traded above $2,000 before falling back to around $1,978 at the time of writing.

Overnight Asian markets were slightly higher, with the exception of the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) which was down -2.4%, partly a catch-up from yesterday when it was closed and also due to tech names which fell following news that Beijing had tightened regulations on the livestreaming industry. The Japanese yen also weakened past ¥128 to the US dollar for the first time in two decades as the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy has meant the currency is now -10% lower this year, making it by far the worst performing major currency this year in US dollar terms.

European equity markets are down -1% lower this morning with the UK outperforming, largely helped by rises in miners and oils.

In geopolitical news, Russian forces continue to escalate attacks on Kyiv, with missile strikes on the city in retaliation for the sinking of the Moskva in the Black Sea. In Mariupol, Ukrainian forces defied Moscow’s demands that they surrender the city ahead of a Sunday deadline. The capture of Mariupol would allow Russia to establish a land bridge between Crimea and mainland Russia to separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. President Zelensky told CNN that Ukraine is not willing to give up territory in the east and repeated a plea for more heavy weaponry from western allies. For its part, the EU is reported to be moving closer to a phased ban on Russian oil. Finland has also begun the process of applying for NATO membership and Sweden is reportedly considering the same and this is likely to frustrate Moscow further.

In economic news, the ECB’s April meeting last Thursday saw the Governing Council state it is weighing the downside risk to growth against the upside risk to inflation stemming from the recent conflict. While uncertainty pervades, the latter risks are more pressing, which drove their decision to signal they would end asset purchases in Q3 2022 and raise interest rates soon after that. Markets have +12bps of hikes priced by July, +36bps by September and +64bps of hikes through 2023.

Yesterday also saw the release of Chinese Q1 GDP which expanded by +4.8%, better than the +4.4% expected. Industrial production increased +5.0% YoY, a deceleration from the +7.5% YoY in January-February, but still ahead of consensus expectations of +4.0%. Conversely, retail sales declined -3.5%, worse than the -3.0% decline expected. However, this data was for March with doubts it fully reflected the COVID shutdowns and April data is expected to look worse.

China also rolled out more easing measures with the PBOC saying it will guide banks to boost lending, offer loan repayment holidays and acquire local government bonds to support infrastructure investment. This comes after last week's policy decisions (which included a 25bp RRR cut, but no change to its policy rate), which were less dovish than expected.

China authorities have also vowed no let-up in their zero-COVID approach as more cities enter lockdown (steel-making hub Tangshan the latest). However, Shanghai may see some reprieve with firms potentially able to restart operations this week under 'closed loop' systems.

In the US, April NAHB builder sentiment fell two points month-on-month to 77 yesterday, the lowest reading since September 2021 and the fourth straight decline, as ongoing home price increases and construction costs continue to impact confidence. Furthermore, the rapid rise in interest rates adds to affordability concerns, with NAHB economists stating that the market is at an inflection point, although Goldman Sachs said they still expect +10% growth in US house prices this year.

Last week also saw industrial production in March +0.9% compared to +0.4% consensus reflecting a sharp rebound in autos production, as well as another big increase in mining output, helped by easing supply constraints. Retail sales were +0.5% m/m in March, but this was flattered by a price-related surge in the nominal value of gasoline sales, with the details suggesting that consumption fell in real terms.

In the US, laggards yesterday included software, pharma, biotech and homebuilders, while energy, autos and semiconductors fared better. Twitter shares were higher (+7.5%) as the board announced the adoption of a poison pill last Friday, preventing an investor from acquiring more than 15% of the company’s stock.

Q1 results season begins to ramp up this week, with updates from a number of companies both in Europe and the US and we continue to monitor company announcements.

In terms of economic news, today we have US housing permits and starts. Tomorrow we have Eurozone Industrial Production and US existing home sales and Fed Beige Book. On Thursday there is Eurozone CPI and Consumer Confidence, US Philadelphia Fed, Leading Indicators and Initial Jobless & Continuing Claims. Finally, Friday is a busy day with UK retail sales for March but more importantly we have preliminary April PMI data for UK, Europe and the US.

We also have several central bank speakers, including Lagarde and Powell sitting on an IMF panel before the Federal Reserve May meeting blackout period and of course the final round of the French Presidential election at the weekend.

Kind regards

04/05/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

After an up and down day, US equity markets finished Friday trading in positive territory.

The key bit of news on the day was Non-farm payrolls data for March, which came in at 431k jobs added. This was slightly below consensus and significantly lower than the February reading of 678k. There was nevertheless an upward revision to both January and February data.

The headline unemployment rate was 3.6% and a bit better than expected, highlighting that the US labour market remains fairly tight.

This could also be seen in the average hourly earnings data, which is now up 5.6% on a year-on-year basis and is clearly a key data point for the Federal Reserve as it looks to keep inflation under control.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 4 bps to 2.38% for its first gain in a week after reaching a 12-month high the previous Friday.

US ISM Manufacturing data for March was softer than expected at 57.1 and below the February reading of 58.6. The keenly watched New Orders component dropped significantly to 53.8 compared to 61.7 in the previous month.

There was another inversion in the 2/10 year yield spread, typically seen as a recession signal. Movements in yields are clearly reflecting high inflation readings and Fed communications around tightening, coupled with fears of a policy mistake causing an economic slowdown or possibly even recession.

Many nevertheless point out that there can be a significant lag between inversion and a recession occurring, if at all and economists at Goldman Sachs commented they see no chance of recession over the next 12 months and if one was to happen, it would be mild, whilst Jefferies commented that the US economy looks more ‘mid-cycle’ with further room to run. The Fed also issued a paper arguing term spreads are not reliable measures for predicting recessions.

In terms of the key indices, the S&P and NASDAQ gained +0.3% while the Dow Jones was up +0.4%. Real Estate (+2%), Utilities (+1.5%) and Consumer Staples (+1.3%) were the best performing sectors whereas Tech (-0.2%), Financials (-0.2%) and Industrials (-0.7%) lagged.

Asian markets were up across the board overnight with India and Hong Kong leading. Mainland China is closed today and tomorrow for holiday.

Oil slightly higher this morning with WTI just over $100/bbl and Brent at $105/bbl. Precious metals are up modestly whilst industrial metals largely weaker. US bond yields firmer this morning with the 10-year now at 2.4% and the 2-year at 2.45%. UK and German yields inverting further with short term yields higher and 10-years down.

Friday’s Eurozone CPI inflation data indicated a sharp acceleration in March, hitting 7.5% versus consensus at 6.6%. Energy was the main contributor to the increase with a 44% year-on-year gain over the month.

Importantly, all categories were well above the ECB 2% target and will increase pressure on the central bank to normalise monetary policy. Official comments over the weekend suggested focus in the near-term will remain on combating inflation, despite Chief Economist Lane pointing out on Friday that the bank needs to be ready to move in either direction given the current backdrop.

Eurozone final manufacturing PMI for March was revised down to 56.5 from 57, taking the data point to its lowest reading in 14 months. The Ukraine conflict was a noticeable drag as it weighed on demand conditions as well as business confidence.

An article in The Times this morning highlights PWC survey data in the UK shows consumer confidence has fallen sharply as inflation ramps up. The latest reading fell to its lowest level since the first COVID lockdown two years ago. The article also suggested recessionary behaviour is likely to kick-in with many households prioritising low-cost goods and reducing discretionary spending.

Sanctions against Russia is likely to intensify following claims of war crimes with news over the weekend showing graphic images of civilian casualties in several villages on the outskirts of Kyiv previously controlled by Russian troops. The scope of new measures is not yet clear but it is likely to involve additional parts of the financial sector as well as mining and transportation. Rhetoric around a Russian energy embargo also strengthened over the weekend with Lithuania deciding to stop all imports of Russian natural gas.

Following encouraging signs of moving towards a cease fire agreement in Istanbul last week, Russia now says talks have not yet advanced to a stage to allow a face-to-face meeting between the respective leaders.

Kind regards

03/02/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

Where to start as risks and conflict escalate?

Markets are actually fairly resilient this morning, with Asian bourses stable and both the Nikkei (up +0.2%) and the Hang Seng (down -0.2%), broadly flat. In Europe both the STOXX600 and the FTSE350 are down only -1.5%, which is much less than the really ugly morning that futures markets were initially indicating. We also had US equity markets which were very strong on Friday with the S&P500 up +2.2%, but that does feel a world away after the weekend.

S&P500 futures are currently indicating the US will be down -1.7% this afternoon and bond yields are lower with the US 10Y Treasury down to 1.9%, UK 10Y Gilts yielding 1.4% and 10Y German Bunds 0.2%. Oil prices are up around +5% and Gold up +1% to $1900/oz.

Breaking the weekend down into key points:

On the ground in Ukraine obviously the situation is fluid. However it appears as if the Russian military advance is stalling amidst heavy Ukrainian resistance. Any hopes the Russians had of installing a quick regime change without inflicting massive collateral damage look lost. Western governments are moving to increase supplies of arms to Ukraine. UK government ministers are talking about the conflict lasting for months or even years. As a response to the situation Putin raises the alert level for Russian nuclear forces. Hard not to have an uneasy feeling in the stomach;

Increased sanctions against Russia as the West moves to cut off the Russian economy. The heavy toolbox has been opened with Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT. Exceptions have been made for energy but increased practical difficulties in trading mean commodity flows are expected to be impacted and further energy sanctions may be imposed later. Major Russian banks accounting for 70% of the Russian banking market have been excluded from SWIFT together with the possibly even more far-reaching attempt to limit the use of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves of $630bn. This will obviously cause massive problems for the Russian economy, but also raises the risks of a financial accident in the global banking system – which in turn, raises risks for Western banks. As such a run on the Russian banking system is highly possible and the Russian rouble drops c30% versus the US dollar. Russian interest rates have doubled to 20% and the Russian central bank restricts foreigners from selling Russian securities;

3) On the optimistic side, talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to start today. Russia has dropped pre-conditions for the talks;

Huge shifts in German foreign policy. Germany announced a massive increase in defence spending with a €100bn fund set-up this year to start revamping their military. Aim is to go above NATO target of 2% of GDP. The government has suspended its post-World War II policy and is sending arms to Ukraine and Germany will start the process of building LNG import terminals to help reduce dependence on Russian gas.

Within equity markets the Financials sector is bearing the brunt of weakness in Europe this morning given the increased risks to financial stability. Defence stocks are strong as are renewable energy stocks. The desire to lessen dependence on Russian energy is another factor to add to climate change as a driver on long-term demand growth.

So the weekend’s events seem to leave two potential outcomes on the table: the first would be Putin declaring victory and withdrawing troops to Ukraine’s Russian-speaking parts, thereby claiming he has destroyed the Ukraine’s military capacity and so removed a threat. In response, the West would likely pour military aid into the unoccupied majority of Ukraine, leaving an uneasy status quo, but at least the killing would stop, as would the destruction of property. This scenario would likely be cheered by investors, as energy prices would stabilise (if not pull back), the euro would bounce and treasury yields would rise.

Against this ‘hopeful’ scenario is a more worrying second possibility, which entails the Russian army getting bogged down in partisan warfare against a Ukrainian army that adopts guerrilla tactics – in short, another Afghanistan. Already, protests against the invasion have broken out all over Russia and should large numbers of young Russian men start to come home in body bags, whilst the foreign media show images of dead women and children, the domestic will to fight may fade fast. Also this will be the first major war started in the social media age, when shocking images can quickly go viral.

Clearly wars destroy both physical and human capital, they stop firms from operating smoothly and encourage everyone to hoard inventories (all inflationary) and against this certitude is the reality of fast-changing facts on the ground in the Ukraine. As such, I suspect markets will continue to trade the headlines for the next few weeks and we therefore navigate the environment we find ourselves in cautiously.

However, if you have any concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Kind regards

02/07/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

Wall Street was stronger again on Friday after the sharp sell-off on Thursday, making last week the strongest for US equity markets this year.

All three major indices rose around +1.5% over the course of the week, with notable gains on Friday by Amazon (+13.5%) on better than expected earnings announcements.

In terms of sectors, Consumer Discretionary led the way on Friday (driven by Amazon), followed by Financials and Energy, as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2020 at 1.92% and the price of oil (WTI) has not been as high as $92/bbl since 2014.

Materials, Real Estate and Consumer Staples were the laggards.

Much stronger than expected Non-farm payrolls for January (467k jobs added versus consensus at 150k) also caught the market by surprise on Friday. Large upward adjustments to the two previous months also signalled that the US labour market was in very good health in the final stages of 2021 despite Omicron. Hourly earnings jumped by +5.7% year/year as the Omicron surge did contribute to a shortening of the average working week to 34.5 hrs (from 34.7 hrs).

Bonds sold off across the curve after the payrolls report with the CME FedWatch tool now recording a 19% chance of a 0.50% interest rate hike in the US come March. This figure compares with 14% on Thursday and 27% immediately after the report. Subsequent comments from Fed officials steadied the nerves of market participants a bit throughout the afternoon on Friday as a 50bp hike next month now seems less likely.

On that same topic, the FT ran a story over the weekend suggesting the bond market is now signalling the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation without derailing growth in the US economy. It pointed out that break-evens now indicate inflation will fall to less than 3% in five years, which is a significant fall from the 7% rate recorded in December. Longer term break-even rates suggest the market is now expecting the Fed to succeed in pushing inflation back towards the 2% target.

Monetary policy shift is also part of the narrative across Europe where the rhetoric is becoming more hawkish. ECB president Lagarde voiced concern over the intensifying inflation data and suggested risks now tilted to the upside and tightening this year is a distinct possibility. The market now expects the ECB to hike interest rates twice this year, starting in September, to take the deposit rate to 0%.

The S&P 500 earnings season has now gone well past the halfway mark in terms of number of companies reported. So far, Q4 earnings growth has come in at 25% compared to expectations of 22% at the start. Just over 77% of reporters have beat consensus, which is well below the 84% four-quarter average for the year, but more in line with the five-year average. In aggregate, companies have beat expectations by 8.4% compared to the four-quarter average surprise rate of nearly 16%.

The softer beats are raising questions about peak margins, but companies continue to emphasise the strong demand backdrop. Supply chain and input price pressures continue to dominate the narrative and we should probably expect this to continue at least through the first half of the year. Company guidance is also coming under greater scrutiny and we have already seen that the current environment can be unforgiving in the event of softer announcements.

Other macro news saw German factory orders for December post a big beat with the reading up +2.8% month/month compared to consensus at +0.5%. This was also up +5.5% on a year/year basis and +9.3% higher than pre-COVID year 2019. Overall, the figures reflected better domestic demand despite high COVID infections, whereas orders from abroad were softer than the previous month.

This morning European and UK markets have opened flat, following mixed Asian trade overnight, although China saw positive gains after returning from the Lunar New Year holidays.

Sterling is modestly up against the euro, but softer versus the US dollar.

Kind regards

01/27/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

After a strong finish to 2021, it has been a difficult start to the new year for investors, with the global equity benchmarks falling into so-called ‘correction’ territory after suffering their worst drops since the pandemic took hold in March 2020.

We cannot say for sure then this pullback will stop, but for the reasons set out in the attached, we remain confident it will not become intolerable.

To summarise:

Corrections are a normal part of most years; bear markets are rare without a recession and there is little risk of one this year;

Company earnings also appear to be in good health – it is valuations that are falling;

Sentiment appears overdone and so-called ‘fear’ gauges have not been at such levels since March 2020 when COVID first struck;

Rising bond yields and interest rate hike fears are hurting sentiment toward ‘growth’ stocks, in particular;

We feel inflation will fade later this year, limiting the risk of even high interest rate expectations;

‘Quantitative tightening’ is also unlikely to disrupt markets as much as feared this year;

Equity markets have tended to rise sharply in anticipation of the first interest rate hike in the cycle;

We see a good chance of a bounce in equities, as long as profit growth holds up.

As ever, if you have any questions or concerns please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Kind regards

01/10/2022

Good Morning / Afternoon

The main news from Friday was the much anticipated US employment report for December.

October and November Non-farm payrolls were revised up by 141,000, but December disappointed at 199,000 – much less than consensus expectations for a print of 400,000+, possibly a function of Omicron limiting the supply of workers.

However, more importantly, average hourly earnings increased by more than expected, at +0.6% m/m and +4.7% y/y and the unemployment rate was 3.9%, below both the 4.2% reported in November and consensus at 4.1%, and is now close to the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%.

The report gave further validation to the tightening cycle the Federal Reserve has indicated it is embarking on and increased speculation that an interest rate increase could come as early as March.

Asian COVID trends continue to worsen with China's Henan province subject to more restrictions to contain a COVID flare-up. Japan are expected to place three prefectures back into a quasi-state of emergency and South Korea's case numbers remain elevated.

Australia cases continue to soar, prompting state governments to reintroduce restrictions, in particular for tennis players it seems.

While the market continues to largely look past the surge in COVID infections given the milder symptoms from the Omicron variant and the broader immunity implications, there has been a pickup in attention on another wave of supply chain constraints and labour shortages. In addition, the China policy shift theme that was seen as potentially softening the broader central bank policy pivot lost some momentum with the PBOC draining the most liquidity last week since early November.

In light of the employment report, US stocks continued their downward path on Friday. Although the Dow Jones was flat, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 shed -1.0% and -0.4%, bringing their weekly losses to -0.3%, -4.5% and -1.8%, respectively.

The NASDAQ recorded its worst week since at least February 2021, 10-year treasury yields jumped another 5 bps to 1.77%, taking the weekly rise to a huge 26 bps. Brent oil also increased from $78 to $82 per barrel last week in light of several supply disruptions including ongoing turmoil in Kazakhstan, a fall in Libyan output amid ongoing pipeline challenges and militia activity, while cold weather in North Dakota and Alberta led to slowing shipments earlier last week.

The modest headline decline of -1.8% for the S&P 500 since 31st December belies ongoing major rotation through both industry sectors and factors which has been the hallmark of the market so far this year.

Already the S&P 500 ‘value’ factor (+2.6%) is 5.7% ahead of ‘growth’ (-3.1%) and ‘dividend yield’ is up +4.1%, whilst ‘momentum’ is -2.2%. In sectors, the leaders, energy and financials are up +10.5% and +5.4% whilst healthcare and technology are both -4.6% negative, year-to-date.

On Friday energy and financials again performed strongest, with consumer discretionary and technology lagging the rest of the market. Bank stocks were notable outperformers in response to an increase in the 10-year yield and ‘go out’ shares from hotel groups, airlines and cruise ships also featured on the leader boards.

Among the biggest losers were homebuilders, vulnerable to rising mortgage rates.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 was also lower on Friday, falling by -0.4%. EU inflation (CPI) was +5.0% in December, up from +4.9% in November and another record high, although core remained stable at +2.6%.

Both were slightly higher than consensus expectations and put more pressure on the ECB who have committed to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for at least another year and remain notably more dovish than the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

The Financial Times also reported Isabel Schnadel, an ECB board member, as saying policies to tackle climate change are likely to keep energy prices higher for longer and this may in turn force the ECB to withdraw its stimulus more quickly than planned.

Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE 100 bucked the trend on Friday, increasing by +0.5% thanks to its bias towards financials, energy and miners.

UK Construction PMI fell to 54.3 in December, from 55.5 previously but was slightly ahead of expectations. Halifax reported that UK house prices rose by +9.8% last year, the fastest for any calendar year since 2004, but growth is expected to slow this year as household finances come under increasing pressure.

However, a negative for housebuilders were reports over the weekend that Michael Gove will this week ask developers to pay up to £4bn to remove dangerous cladding from tens of thousands of buildings between 11 and 18 metres in height, with the threat of legal compulsion if they refuse. This comes on top of the £2bn they are already being required to pay to remove cladding on taller buildings. Initial thoughts are that this could be up to an 8% hit on earnings, although housebuilders would look to mitigate this elsewhere, for example through their land buying. As a result, housebuilders are amongst the biggest fallers in the UK this morning.

Overnight Asia markets were mixed with Hong Kong and China higher, but other markets such as Australia and South Korea lower and Japan shut. The UK and Europe have opened slightly lower this morning and US futures are also slightly lower.

Kind regards

10/18/2021

Good Morning / Afternoon

Last week ended on a positive note, with markets posting their best performance across the week in a number of months.

The S&P 500 rose +1.8% over the five days, whilst the FTSE 100 was up +2% and in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +2.7% - although early in the week energy and materials stocks rallied strongly as commodity and oil prices continued to move higher and the rally broadened out as the US earnings season kicked off, led by the banks and good figures from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs drove the US market higher and generally buoyed sentiment.

The S&P 500 is now just 1.6% below its recent all-time high.

However, despite a strong performance from equity markets last week, investors remain jittery worried by central bank tightening of monetary policy, as supply chain disruption drives prices higher with labour shortages pushing up wages, leading to upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on company margins.

In the Michigan Consumer survey on Friday which fell back to 71.4 when a rise had been expected, rising prices were cited as a major concern and inflation expectations rose again to 4.8%.

This week sees the release of PMI data on Friday, which will be watched closely to see how economies are coping with ongoing supply chain disruption and higher energy costs. However with 584 container ships waiting outside ports around the world (double the number at the start of the year), it is clear to see that supply chain problems are unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Another trend investors need to monitor closely is that as labour shortages have been pushing up wages and jobs remain unfilled, this has seen an uptick in labour activism, particularly in the US.

Examples of this were seen last week when 10,000 John Deere workers went on strike over pay and benefits and over the weekend, 60,000 Hollywood production staff reached a deal on better pay and conditions. This undoubtedly emphasises that in certain industries power is switching from the employer to employee and this will have a knock on effect on both prices and margins, depending on whether increases can be passed through to the end consumer.

On Friday the US market rose 382 pts on the Dow Jones whilst the NASDAQ was +0.5% higher and good numbers from both Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs set a positive tone at the opening. Better than expected Retail Sales figures increasing +0.7% (when a -0.2% decline had been forecast), helped largely by a fall back in new virus cases and also rising prices was also a welcome tailwind. This saw a strong rally in Consumer Discretionary names led by Amazon (+3.3%), otherwise financials and industrials outperformed and defensive names lagged the market.

US President Biden’s social bill continues to make slow progress and an important element, the climate change agenda, is running into problems with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin demanding changes to the clean energy element, which requires power generators to switch to clean energy from fossil fuels. Clearly coming from a ‘coal state’ the senator is objecting to this, causing disharmony in the progressive section of the Democrat party.

In the UK ahead of this week’s UK CPI data on Wednesday, Governor Andrew Bailey struck a hawkish note at the G30 conference over the weekend indicating he is keen to raise interest rates shortly, whilst two moderate MPC members Catherine Mann and Silvana Tenreyro, emphasized in the media caution about doing so. Their concern remains that raising interest rates too soon could prove to be economically damaging, arguing energy prices would begin to fall next year and supply chain issues likely to ease. The bond market is therefore very nervous that the MPC may make a policy mistake by raising interest rates too soon and this remains a primary focus going forward.

This morning Asian markets are lower as China’s Q3 GDP data came in below expectations at +4.9% versus +5.2% consensus, with interruption to power generation to heavy industries and new virus cases in August hitting growth. The pressures on power generation in China continues with thermal coal futures hitting new highs this morning and speculators forcing oil futures ever skyward with talk the oil price (Brent) will hit $200 by December 2022. Looking ahead the important question remains how the Chinese government responds, i.e. what kind of balance does China’s leadership want to strike between short-term growth and their longer-term objectives?

This morning European and UK markets have opened modestly lower and GBP is lower versus the US dollar and edging higher against the euro.

Kind regards

David Lloyd Private Wealth Advisor

04/19/2022

04/05/2022

03/02/2022

02/07/2022

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