Matthew Valeriati, Investment Advisor of RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

03/16/2026

Markets and Headlines: What You Actually Need to Know

Recent geopolitical tensions have sparked plenty of conversation. If you’re wondering what this means for your investments, you’re not alone.

Here’s the reality: the economy remains resilient.

Strong earnings growth, healthy business activity, and solid consumer spending are creating a constructive backdrop for 2026. Geopolitical events, while headline-worthy, typically have short-lived market impacts. History shows us that energy shocks normalize relatively quickly.

Why Your Portfolio Can Weather This

Diversification isn’t just a buzzword—it’s your protection. When specific events spike energy prices, your balanced portfolio absorbs the impact across different asset classes, regions, and sectors. That’s exactly what it’s designed to do.

What’s Happening in Markets Right Now

Canada: Materials and energy are leading the way, with gold hitting all-time highs driven by safe-haven demand. Energy has emerged as the top-performing sector year-to-date following Middle East geopolitical developments. Strong first-quarter results from Canadian banks continue to support forward earnings expectations, with mid-teen percentage growth anticipated for 2026. The market trades at a reasonable valuation discount to the U.S., offering compelling value.

U.S.: Monetary policy remains accommodative and fiscal policy supportive, creating favorable conditions for growth. AI-related investment is accelerating, reinforcing economic momentum and earnings expansion. With expected earnings growth around 15% this year, current valuations are justified despite being elevated by historical standards.

International: Europe and Japan are attracting investors seeking diversification beyond concentrated U.S. technology exposure. Germany’s increased infrastructure and defense spending should provide economic tailwinds, while Japan’s new political mandate supports corporate reforms and stimulus. Valuations have risen, but if mid-double-digit earnings growth materializes, the premium is supportable.

The Bottom Line

We’re staying disciplined. No dramatic portfolio shifts based on headlines. Just focused ex*****on on our long-term strategy — one designed to handle volatility.

Markets will always have headlines. Your portfolio should be built for the long term.

Questions about your specific situation? Reach out to me at either [email protected] or give me a call at 905-849-4078.

07/31/2025

The U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday opted to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% where it has been since December of last year, resisting vocal calls from President Trump for sharp cuts. The backdrop behind this decision comes on the heels of solid GDP growth of 3% in Q2 and inflation remains above target at 2.70%.

Like all decisions made south of the 49th, there are implications for Canadians:
(1) Widening rate divergence
Canada's policy rate yesterday was also held, but at 2.75%, which is well below the Fed's rate. This risks further downward pressure on the CAD and maintains upward pressure on Canadian borrowing costs.

(2) Tariff-driven uncertainty
Heightened U.S.-Canada trade tensions and looming tariffs have escalated Canadian economic risk. The Bank of Canada has emphasized its need to strike a balance between shielding businesses and containing inflation.

(3) Rate path divergence
While the fed signaled that future cuts are data-dependent, the Bank of Canada yesterday refrained from offering baseline forecasts, instead mapping out multiple scenarios tied to trade outcomes.

For fixed income investors, diverging rate paths present opportunity, and risk. U.S. yields may remain elevated longer, offering attractive nominal returns but with heightened duration risk. In contrast, Canadian bonds, particularly medium term notes, could benefit from a steeper yield curve and earlier easing, providing potential for capital appreciation. In sum, for investors allocating funds in their portfolios to fixed income I continue to recommend focusing on medium term bonds, as you still generate an attractive yield and there remains potential capital gains growth.

If you're concerned about how your portfolio is positioned, especially as we move into August and the tariff-deadline of August 1st (yes, that's tomorrow!), feel free to message me, give me a call at 416-699-0183 or send me an email at [email protected].

https://bit.ly/4l2N6Op

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its key short-term interest rate unchanged for the fifth time this year, brushing off repeated calls from Trump for a cut.

07/24/2025

The evening of August 21, 2025, join us as we explore how life insurance fits into modern estate planning strategies. Whether you're a professional, business owner, or simply planning ahead, you'll learn how insurance can be used to:

- Cover final tax liabilities
- Fund inheritances efficiently
- Equalize estates among heirs
- Preserve assets for future generations

To RSVP, simply click on the "Register" button in the image below or email me at [email protected].

https://bit.ly/4f2onYY

Simple, modern video meetings for everyone on the world's most popular and trusted collaboration platform.

07/08/2025

There are two things markets do not like. That's uncertainty followed by more uncertainty.

You can be excused for feeling like you're Bill Murray in Ground Hog day as you're bombarded with messages, notes and commentary on U.S. foreign trade policy and tariffs. But the unfortunate reality is the will they, won't they game will only add to market volatility - however, for now it would appear that markets are genuinely shrugging it off as Q2 earnings seasons approaches and investor's focus on growth prospects for 2025 and into 2026.

My advice, ignore the noise as well but maintain cautious optimism. If you're putting money to work, do so gradually. You can never truly time the market, but spreading out your investment dollars over periods of uncertainty is the best way to ensure you're not left in the lurch should a market pull back occur.

As always, feel free to reach out to me at 416-699-0183 or via email at [email protected].

President Trump on Monday indicated there may be some wiggle room for nations to negotiate on trade despite his fresh threat of additional tariffs going into effect on Aug. 1 Trump spoke to reporte…

07/07/2025

Canada's financial landscape is navigating mixed currents right now, and opportunities abound for thoughtful positioning:

Equities
- The TSX has already surged to fresh highs, thanks in large part to a roughly 25% YTD rally in gold. The uptick in gold prices This has been driven by central-bank buying and its role as a hedge amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Consensus earnings growth for 2025 sits near 9%, which is healthy but with valuation just above the 10-year norm at 15.8x forward earnings, discipline matters!

Fixed Income
- With inflation trending near the Bank of Canada's target and 2.25% of cuts already delivered since mid-2024, the BoC appears ready to pause and assess.
- In this environment, we favour safer credit, such as Government of Canada bonds and high-quality investment-grade corporates.

Despite the improvement in sentiment, trade uncertainty remains a wildcard with tariffs still able to shake investor confidence (U.S. markets today were an excellent example of this).

Canada's markets are offering stability and potential upside, but only with the proper guardrails. Equities benefit from gold strength and solid earnings, but valuations are full. Meanwhile the fixed income landscape leans conservative, guided by economic data and policy restraint.

For more on this read our 2025 Midyear Outlook for Canada and as always if you have any questions or would like specific insight on your portfolio and financial plan, you can reach me at 416-699-0183.

Elevated gold prices should continue to support the TSX, while ongoing tariff uncertainties have us tilting toward perceived less risky categories within fixed income.

06/10/2025

The World Bank has just cut its global growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, and it's worth unpacking what that means for you and your investments.

Today's revision lowers 2024 growth expectations to 2.6%, with only a modest uptick to 2.7% in 2025. While this reflects a narrow avoidance of recession, it also signals a world economy that's still healing from rate hikes, inflation shocks, and now, rising trade tensions.

Another notable declaration from the World Bank is their expectation that global trade will grow just 2.5% this year, roughly half the pre-pandemic average. That weakness is being felt most acutely in manufacturing-heavy regions like Eats Asia and Europe.

So, what does this mean for your investment portfolio?
• Diversification remains essential - Slowing trade and weak growth across advanced economies reinforce the importance of multi-asset exposure, especially to regions or sectors more insulated from these global trends.
• Equity markets may face more volatility - With the World Bank forecasting only modest growth, forward-looking earnings may stay under pressure, particularly in cyclical sectors.
• Policy divergence matters - While the Fed and ECB weigh rate cuts, emerging markets face very different pressures. This is providing both opportunities, but also risks, for international equities and fixed income.

In short, this isn't a time for complacency. A slower growth environment changes the game: stable income, defensive positioning, and strategic tilts will continue to matter more than chasing last year's winners.

If you're wondering how this should influence your wealth and investment plan strategy, let's talk.



https://reut.rs/4jHpnCA

06/04/2025

As of today, the U.S. has raised tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, a move that directly impacts key sectors of our economy and could ripple through your investment portfolio.

It is no secret that Canada is the largest exporter of both steel and aluminum to the U.S. These industries may seem small in terms of size, but they punch well above their weight when looking at the broader economy:
• Steel production in Canada contributes approximately $2.8 billion to GDP (0.1%)
• Aluminum production in Canada adds about $4.2 billion to GDP (0.15%)
• Combined, they support over 34,000 direct jobs, primarily in Ontario and Quebec

Despite their small size, they have a critical impact in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, automotive and transportation.

So, what does this mean for investors?
• We expect continued volatility in materials, industrials, and manufacturing stocks.
• This will result in supply chain pressures and rising input costs for Canadian producers.
• There could be further potential headwinds for GDP growth in Canada and a deterioration of corporate earnings in sectors directly and indirectly impacted by these tariffs.
• On a positive note, opportunities could arise in non-correlated sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities, and financials.

If you are wondering how trade policy and global events may be affecting your wealth strategy, let's connect! I am here to help you position your portfolio to stay resilient, no matter what headlines come next!

06/02/2025

Our colleagues at expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady this week at 2.75%, following a year of significant cuts. While Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, domestic demand and job market trends are weakening, most notably in manufacturing. Inflation is still sticky, which has largely been driven by domestic services.

So what does this mean for investors?
- Firstly, fixed income could offer attractive opportunites as rates level off or decilne. An area of focus i continue to highlight to all my clients, regardless of risk tolerance.
- Second, your Canadian equity exposure should focus on resilient sectors with strong fundamentals. For example, life insurance companies as opposed to banks.
- Third, your currency strategy matters. Rate differentials could move the CAD/USD relationship.

In the end, staying diversified and nimble is key. Now is a great time to revisit your portfolio strategy, feel free to reach out to me for a complimentary assessment of your wealth plan and investment strategy.

You can read the full article from RBC Economics in the link below. https://bit.ly/43IAzZE

The balance of risk around the U.S.’s growth may be shifting, but government data still shows a strong economy

05/30/2025

Canada's Q1 GDP growth came in stronger than expected at +2.2% annualized, outperforming market expectations of 1.7%. Dig a little deeper though and the picture is more nuanced:
• Much of the Q1 boost came from one-time inventory builds ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs and a temporary surge in machinery investment.
• Household spending is holding up better than expected, even though consumer confidence is declining.
• Residential investment fell sharply, down 11%, while non-residential investment (think machinery and equipment) and trade remain key bright spots.
• Early signs suggest April growth continued modestly (+0.1%) with spending on services like dining and travel staying resilient.

So, what does this mean for investors?

Despite global uncertainty, the Canadian economy is showing signs of underlying strength - an important signal as we approach the Bank of Canada's next rate decision next Wednesday (June 4th). A rate hold now looks more likely than a cut, which could influence fixed income positioning and equity market sentiment.

If you're wondering how shifting economic conditions could affect your portfolio or financial goals, let's connect to discuss how we can help you position your wealth for resilience and opportunity! You can reach me via InMail, send me an email at [email protected] or give me a call at 416-699-0183.

05/29/2025

The U.S. Court of International Trade struck down the Trump administrations "Liberation Day" tariffs, citing the president overstepped his authority to impose tariffs in extraordinary situations given the tariffs imposed were across the board. While it may sound like a policy blip as the Trump administration has already said they will be appealing the ruling, the decision has already had a ripple effect through global markets this morning - and will undoubtedly impact your portfolio!

Why should this matter to you, the investor?
• Trade policy shifts often lead to market reactions – which we are seeing this morning. This ruling will specifically impact the manufacturing, technology and consumer goods sectors.
• Easing tariffs will lower input costs, potentially boosting profit margins for multinational companies – but will also impact mid- and small-cap equities.
• This opens the door for a shift in tone on trade with China, however this is less likely given the current U.S. administrations objectives. Regardless, this could be a boon for emerging markets.

We at RBC Dominion Securities continually monitor global legal and policy developments as they directly impact asset pricing, risk allocation and sector strategy. If you're working with an advisor who isn't connecting these dots, you may not be seeing the full picture in your investment plan.

If you're looking for a more integrated and proactive approach to wealth management, let's have a conversation. You can reach me via LinkedIn, send me an email at [email protected] or give me good old fashioned phone call at 416-699-0183.