08/26/2026
The case for a Bank of Canada rate hike is starting to weaken.
With Canada-U.S. trade tensions escalating again, economists are increasingly expecting the Bank of Canada to stay on hold rather than raise rates. Higher energy prices and tariffs can still create inflation pressure, but right now the bigger concern appears to be slower economic growth.
BMO is currently forecasting the overnight rate to remain at 2.25% through the rest of 2026, while other economists are also saying the likelihood of a hike has fallen significantly.
The next Bank of Canada announcement is September 2, with no change currently expected.
For mortgage holders, the takeaway is simple: the outlook has shifted fairly quickly, and the argument for higher rates is becoming much less convincing.
As always, things can change with inflation, oil prices and trade negotiations, but for now a prolonged hold looks increasingly likely.