08/15/2017
• Canadian existing home sales fell 2.1% m/m in July, a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Existing home sales are now 15.3% below the peak reached in March 2017.
• The decline was fairly broad based with sales down in two thirds of all markets across Canada. However, the biggest declines remained in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, led by a further 5.4% contraction in the Toronto market – where sales have now fallen 44% from the March peak. The only major markets to post an increase in July were Quebec City (+4.5%), Winnipeg (+4%), Montreal (+2.9%), Hamilton (+1.5%), Edmonton (+0.6%) and Regina (+1.1%).
• New listings also fell, but by a lesser 1.8% helping to keep the market well balanced. The sales-to-new listings ratio held at 53.6 or near the midpoint of where CREA suggests indicates a balanced market. New listings in Toronto have fallen back to historically normal levels following a massive spike between April and June, but the market has remained relatively soft with many of the homes listed during that period still lingering on the market. By the sales-to-new listings measure, Toronto (40.1) is now one of the softest markets in Canada. Saskatoon and Newfoundland are two other markets where supply-demand balances are tilted more in favour of buyers.
• The average home price fell 0.8% y/y, mostly as demand is shifting away from the more expensive Toronto and Vancouver markets. Home prices are still growing moderately in most regions along with balanced conditions. The quality adjusted MLS home price index was still rising at the fastest pace in markets across the Greater Golden Horseshoe with home prices still up 18.1% y/y in the Greater Toronto Area, but the pace of growth is moderating quickly. Home prices continued to rise in markets in BC, with prices up 17.8% y/y in Victoria and 8.7% in Greater Vancouver Area. Home price growth is also picking up in Ottawa (+5.8%) and the Greater Montreal Area (+4.9%), following a sustained period of below 2% growth.
Key Implications
• The overall Canadian housing market is now in its fourth month of what we expect to be a soft landing, with rising mortgage rates and more stringent mortgage regulation holding demand back broadly across Canada. Mortgage rates are expected to continue climbing with the Bank of Canada likely to hike its policy rate three times in the next year and a half. As such, housing affordability is likely to deteriorate broadly across Canada. Moreover, there is very little signs that foreign investment and/or speculation has shifted into any other market following the implementation of the nonresident's buyers tax in Ontario.
• Despite the rise in supply in the GTA that has seen the market rebalance sharply, we expect the market to undergo a soft landing going forward. On the whole, we believe that the Greater Toronto Area could sustain a moderate decline in home prices of about 6% on an annual basis as of next year, with most of the price decline already baked in. Elsewhere, more balanced conditions are likely to keep prices growing between 2% and 4% per year. While this is below the 6% average it has experienced in the last decade in a half, it is a pace consistent with income growth and rising mortgage rates.