04/29/2026
Rates have come down… but it doesn’t feel like it. Here’s why.
The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% today, which was expected.
They’re essentially in a wait-and-see mode right now. Inflation ticked up in March, mostly due to higher energy costs, so instead of moving rates, they’re waiting to see if that continues or settles back down.
If things settle in the Middle East, we could see mortgage rates start to ease later this year or into early next year. If not, ongoing pressure on energy prices could keep inflation elevated, which makes it harder for fixed mortgage rates to come down in the near term.
From a mortgage standpoint, this is where things get confusing.
Variable rates have come down quite a bit over the past year. The Bank of Canada rate was around 5% in April 2024, dropped to 2.75% by April 2025, and now sits at 2.25%, so payments today are noticeably lower than they were.
Fixed rates have not dropped nearly as much because they are based on bond yields. That is why they still feel relatively high compared to variable rates.
Over the past couple of months, we have also seen fixed rates edge up slightly. With the conflict in the Middle East pushing energy prices higher, bond yields have risen, which has added upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.
When you look at the housing market, it tells a similar story.
Across Canada, the average home price has gone from about $679,866 in April 2025 to around $673,084 today, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Even with lower rates, prices have softened slightly, indicating that borrowing costs are still affecting demand.
Alberta has been a bit different. Prices have gone from about $524,755 in April 2025 to $533,201 today, based on provincial real estate board data across Alberta. A big reason is affordability. Alberta is still one of the more accessible markets in Canada, so we are continuing to see strong demand, including people moving here from higher-priced provinces.
The big takeaway is this. Even though the Bank of Canada has lowered rates, fixed mortgage rates have not come down nearly as much and have even ticked up slightly since the Middle East turbulence started.
If you are buying, renewing, or refinancing, it is less about timing the market and more about choosing the right strategy for your situation.
If you want to talk through your options, feel free to reach out.