01/28/2026
The Bank of Canada hit pause again.
At its January 2026 meeting, the Bank held the overnight rate at 2.25%, exactly as markets expected. Their message? Current rates still make sense based on today’s economic outlook.
That said, uncertainty is back in the conversation.
With renewed tariff threats from the U.S., the Bank acknowledged that trade disruptions could impact the economy, and that future rate moves could go either direction if conditions change.
What they’re watching:
• Canada’s GDP is expected to grow just over 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027
• Inflation is still expected to stay close to the 2% target
• Trade pressures may push costs up, but excess supply is helping keep inflation in check
What this means for borrowers:
Rates are stable for now, but the path forward isn’t guaranteed. Strategy matters more than ever, whether you’re renewing, buying, or deciding between fixed vs. variable.
If you’re wondering how this impacts your mortgage,
let’s talk. Staying informed beats guessing every time.