07/15/2026
Today, the Bank of Canada left the policy rate unchanged, so Prime doesn't change.
There is a decent bit of analysis in their press release. The take-home message is:
-Economic activity is picking up a bit (so no pressure to reduce the rate)
-Core inflation remains in the target range, and while CPI inflation and uncertainty is very high mostly due to war related issues the current forecast cals for CPI inflation (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi/) to return to near the target range in early 2027, meaning that they don't see an immediate reason to increase the rate.
IF the war-related inflation (currently mediated by low economic growth) pushes inflation higher, the BOC will have reason to increase rates.
Next meeting September 2.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/fad-press-release-2026-07-15/
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.