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AT Financial Group Inc.

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Richmond Hill, ON
AT Financial Group Inc.

A.T. Based out of Richmond Hill, Ontario, A.T.

Financial Group helps clients and industry professionals navigate complex financial decisions by executing a unified strategy incorporating investments, insurance, retirement, estate preservation, tax optimization, and corporate planning. Financial Group is driven by a team of professionals dedicated to safeguarding clients' financial well-being across insurance, investment, and tax planning. Led by President Amy Tong since 1990, the firm combines financial guidance with tailored products to meet every client's need. The management team includes talented individuals from a diverse number of backgrounds and expertise to support our valued clients, including insurance, mergers and acquisitions, banking, and operations.

11/01/2026

Can the US Stock Market's Year-End Rally in a Midterm Election Year Repeat This Year?

Looking at the annual cyclical performance of the S&P 500 from 1928 to 2025, the index has often begun a new upswing around the end of October, whether or not it was a midterm election year. We refer to the phenomenon below as the "year-end rally." Notably, in midterm election years this year-end rally has usually been stronger than in non-election years (Figure 1). In other words, going by nearly a century of historical cycles, the S&P 500 should in theory still have room to climb further between now and the end of the year.

That said, cyclical analysis rests on historical statistics. It can serve only as a reference and does not mean past patterns will repeat this year. More importantly, the average path of the S&P 500 across midterm election years over the past century shows the index moving broadly sideways in a choppy range for the first ten months (light blue line in Figure). Its average maximum drawdown in the second half of those years reached double digits, at 13.8%, with a median of 12.0%.

This year, US stocks have departed clearly from that traditional pattern. Instead of falling, the S&P 500 has risen 10.5% year-to-date. Its maximum drawdown in the second half of this year has been just 4.1% so far. That is the second lowest of the past 16 midterm election years, above only the 3.6% recorded in 2006.

Against this backdrop, the absence of a deeper correction so far this year raises considerable uncertainty over whether the final year-end rally will be as strong as those seen in previous midterm election years. More importantly, investors should perhaps focus on whether the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom that has been driving the US market higher is approaching a turning point, potentially altering the market’s trajectory towards year-end.

10/27/2026

Thank you to everyone who showed up at our event last weekend! It was a pleasure to host Michael as our special guest to share his insights to help dentists looking to incorporate and open up their own practice. It was amazing connecting with dedicated professionals on building wealth strategies.

We look forward to seeing you at our upcoming sessions as we continue to navigate financial growth together!

10/26/2026

🎉 We’re Excited to Be at Spectrum Day Toronto 2026! 🦷

Join A.T. Financial Group Inc. at Booth 323! We look forward to connecting with dental professionals and sharing valuable financial and tax planning insights.

🎤 Don‘t Miss Our Speaking Session!

📌 Topic: Tax Sheltering & Building a $3M Tax-Free CDA in Your Dental Professional Corporation

🕓 Time: 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM

We can‘t wait to see you there! 🤝

10/25/2026

Rethinking the 60/40 Portfolio: The Case for a 15% Gold Allocation

As bond yields have risen repeatedly in recent years, the correlation between US bond prices and the S&P 500 Index has increasingly turned positive. In other words, stocks and bonds have tended to move in tandem, weakening the diversification benefits of traditional portfolios. This raises questions about whether the 60/40 portfolio, a strategy widely used for more than three decades, can continue to deliver attractive and relatively stable returns. Against this backdrop, adding gold has emerged as a potential way to improve diversification and enhance portfolio performance.

Does this strategy work, and what gold allocation offers the best balance between risk and return?

Backtesting over the period from 1970 to 2024 shows that a traditional 60/40 portfolio, with no gold allocation, delivered an average annual total return of 9.37%, a maximum drawdown of 27%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.54 [Figure]. Introducing gold while proportionately reducing allocations to the S&P 500 and bonds lifted the average annual total return to a peak of 9.75%. Although the improvement was modest, portfolio risk measures, including volatility and maximum drawdown, generally declined as the gold allocation increased. This suggests that gold’s main benefit lies not only in enhancing returns but also in mitigating portfolio risk.

Measured by the Sharpe ratio, portfolios allocating approximately 14% to 18% to gold achieved the highest readings, at around 0.6. The portfolio with a 14% gold allocation also recorded the lowest annualized volatility. A gold allocation of around 15% could therefore offer a more favorable balance between returns and risk.

Overall, historical backtesting suggests that adding approximately 15% gold to a traditional 60/40 portfolio could improve risk-adjusted performance while reducing portfolio risk. This offers an alternative approach as rising stock–bond correlations undermine conventional diversification. However, historical results do not guarantee future performance, which will depend on asset price movements and changing correlations. If gold continues to gain traction as a strategic component of multi-asset portfolios over the next decade or two, demand could strengthen further, potentially supporting gold prices over the longer term.

10/18/2026

US Twin Deficits Raise Prospect of 6% Treasury Yields

Persistently elevated fiscal deficits require governments to issue substantial amounts of debt to finance public spending and refinance maturing obligations. A surge in sovereign bond supply, in turn, puts upward pressure on yields. Meanwhile, a prolonged current account deficit indicates that an economy’s overall spending exceeds its income, leaving it reliant on foreign capital to bridge the gap. As external liabilities accumulate, investors may demand higher risk premiums to compensate for currency depreciation, rising inflation, and deteriorating debt-servicing capacity, adding further upward pressure on long-term bond yields.

In theory, therefore, the larger a country’s twin deficits, the greater the upward pressure on its long-term bond yields, and vice versa.

A scatter plot comparing the combined fiscal and current account balances as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), hereafter referred to as the “twin deficit ratio," with 10-year government bond yields across 10 major advanced economies reveals a general tendency for countries with lower ratios, indicating larger combined deficits, to have higher yields (see chart). Regression analysis shows that the twin-deficit ratio accounts for 72% of the variation in 10-year yields, indicating a relatively strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

Notably, the latest scatter plot shows that observations for most countries fall within approximately one standard deviation of the regression line. US Treasury yields, however, remain around 1.7 standard deviations below the level implied by the model.

Assuming the US twin-deficit position remains unchanged, the model estimates a 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 5.75%, with a one-standard-deviation range of 5.35% to 6.14%. The lower bound is already broadly in line with this month’s peak. If the twin deficits deteriorate further or investors demand a higher risk premium, Treasury yields could potentially climb above 6%. Should the US fiscal and current account imbalances widen further next year, the risk of a sustained rise in long-term yields warrants close attention.

10/11/2026

Can the S&P 500 Rally Last Without Broader Participation?

On Tuesday, October 6, the S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93, setting its 28th record closing high of the year. Yet strength at the index level does not necessarily imply broad-based participation. The percentages of constituents trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages—measures of medium- and long-term market breadth, respectively—reveal a pronounced divergence beneath the surface of the US equity market.

On the day of the record close, medium- and long-term breadth stood at just 29.5% and 46.8%, respectively—the weakest readings on record for a day when the index reached a new high. In other words, the index’s advance to fresh highs was not accompanied by a corresponding improvement across its constituents. This lack of broad participation marks a clear bearish divergence between the index and market breadth.

What does this extreme divergence suggest for the market outlook? Over the past 20 years, only 30 trading days met all three conditions: the S&P 500 was within 1% of its all-time high, including days when it set a record, while medium- and long-term breadth were below 50% and 60%, respectively. Notably, all 30 observations occurred within the past two years, forming four “Near-High, Weak-Breadth Clusters”: late 2024 to early 2025; the fourth quarter of 2025; the second quarter of 2026; and late September 2026 to the present (Figure).

Across the three earlier episodes, the signals were followed either by a relatively sharp near-term pullback, as in early 2025, or by a more prolonged period of sideways trading, as in June 2026. These precedents suggest that when the index approaches or breaks above its all-time high while breadth remains unusually weak, the sustainability of the rally warrants closer scrutiny. The market may then need time to digest its previous gains via a price correction, or a long period of consolidation near the highs.

10/05/2026

Top 10 Best-Performing ETFs in the First Three Quarters: Semiconductors Maintain Their Lead

The ranking identifies the ten ETFs with the highest cumulative returns over the first three quarters of this year, drawn from nearly 1,000 eligible funds with assets under management exceeding USD 1 billion and at least one year of trading history. Inverse, leveraged, and single-stock ETFs are excluded.

Following their strong showing in the second quarter, semiconductor and related investment themes once again dominated the leaderboard, accounting for seven of the top ten ETFs. These include the First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (FTXL), Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) and iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). From a geographical perspective, four ETFs tracking South Korean and Taiwanese equities also made the list: the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR), Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF (FLTW) and iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT). Their presence underscores the importance of these two markets to the global semiconductor supply chain.

Fund flows tell a similarly positive story. Except for FTXL, all semiconductor and related thematic ETFs on the list recorded substantial net inflows. For some funds, year-to-date net inflows exceeded 60% of their assets under management. Rising prices alongside net inflows suggest sustained investor appetite for these themes. However, the ranking’s high sector concentration also highlights the need to monitor overlapping holdings and concentration risk across ETFs.

07/12/2026

Robust ETF Inflows Underpin the U.S. Equity Rally

Since the beginning of the second quarter, capital inflows into U.S. equities have accelerated at an exceptional pace, reaching seasonal highs not seen in more than a decade. An analysis of the 20 largest U.S. equity ETFs by assets under management shows a sharp acceleration in fund inflows following the start of Q2. Combined cumulative net inflows into these ETFs surged from approximately USD 6 billion at the end of the first quarter to around USD 224 billion as of earlier this month.

In other words, nearly USD 220 billion of net new capital has flowed into these funds in just three months, marking the strongest inflow for the same period in more than a decade (Figure). From a historical perspective, the current year-to-date total already ranks as the fourth-largest annual inflow on record, surpassed only by the full-year totals of 2024, 2025, and 2021. Should the current pace persist, 2026 is on track to set a new all-time record for annual ETF inflows. The data suggest that the second-quarter rally in U.S. equities—particularly in the technology sector—has been underpinned by exceptionally strong institutional and retail capital inflows, creating a market environment in which liquidity, price appreciation, and investor participation have reinforced one another.

06/29/2026

Shifting Tides in Southbound Capital and the Key Support Level for the HSI

During the 2024–2025 period, Southbound Stock Connect flows saw exponential growth, recording historic net inflows of HKD 800 billion and HKD 1.4 trillion—representing YoY increases of 1.5x and 3.4x. This immense influx of capital was the primary catalyst behind the Hang Seng Index’s (HSI) strong downside protection and upward momentum.

However, the current year tells a different story. The rhythm of mainland inflows has decelerated significantly. Year-to-date net Southbound inflows total roughly HKD 300 billion, effectively halved compared to the same period last year and trailing the YTD figures of 2024, 2021, and 2020. This suggests a distinct moderation in risk appetite for new capital deployments.

Analyzing the capital cost structure provides a clear technical roadmap. Based on flow data from 2024 to the present, and assuming full allocation to the HSI or the Tracker Fund (02800.HK), the weighted average cost basis for these positions is currently estimated at the 23,000 level [Figure].

Should the index fall meaningfully below this watermark, the mainland capital accumulated over the last two years will slip into unrealized losses. Consequently, capital flow dynamics dictate that the 23,000 mark will trigger intense market friction, likely providing substantial structural support for the HSI in the near term.

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9140 Leslie Street
Richmond Hill, ON
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Monday	9am - 5:30am
Tuesday	9am - 5:30am
Wednesday	9am - 5:30pm
Thursday	9am - 5:30pm
Friday	9am - 5:30pm

Website

http://www.atfinancialgroup.com/

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