03/12/2026
The conflict in Iran has thrown a curveball at the Bank of Canada. If you’re wondering how this affects your wallet, here’s the quick breakdown:
🛑 The "Rate Relief" is on hold. While we were hoping for more cuts in 2026, the BoC is now expected to keep the policy rate steady at 2.25% to see how the conflict impacts the global economy.
⛽ The Oil Effect. War often means higher gas prices. If energy costs stay high, it fuels inflation—which makes it much harder for the Bank to lower rates anytime soon.
🏠 Fixed Rates are already moving. Even if the official rate stays the same, bond yields are jumping. This means fixed mortgage rates are already starting to tick upward.
The Bottom Line: We’re in a "wait-and-see" period. Canada’s economy is resilient because we export energy, but your cost of living (and borrowing) might stay higher for longer.