08/20/2026
Why are mortgage rates moving when the Bank of Canada hasn't raised its rate?
This is one of the most important things for Canadian homebuyers and homeowners to understand right now.
You may have seen headlines about volatility in the bond market. It sounds complicated, but it actually has a very direct connection to mortgages.
Here is what is happening:
The Bank of Canada currently has its overnight policy rate at 2.25% and has held it steady.
But the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is around 3.35% today, close to its highest level of the past year.
Why does that matter?
Because fixed mortgage rates don't simply follow the Bank of Canada's overnight rate.
Fixed mortgage pricing is heavily influenced by the bond market, particularly government bond yields.
Think of it this way:
Bank of Canada rate → more important for variable-rate mortgages
Bond yields → a major influence on fixed mortgage rates
And right now, bond yields are facing pressure.
Globally, investors have been demanding higher yields on longer-term government debt. Concerns around inflation, energy prices, government deficits and the enormous amount of government borrowing are all contributing to volatility.
We've even seen the U.S. Treasury step in with larger bond buybacks after the recent surge in long-term yields.
So what does this mean for Canadians?
It does NOT automatically mean mortgage rates are about to skyrocket.
But it does mean we shouldn't assume that a future Bank of Canada rate cut will automatically produce a large drop in 3-, 4- or 5-year fixed mortgage rates.
Fixed mortgage rates can move independently of the Bank of Canada's overnight rate.
The other important point:
Bond yields move every day. Mortgage pricing can change with them.
That is why watching only the Bank of Canada announcement isn't enough when you're trying to understand where fixed mortgage rates are heading.
For anyone buying, renewing or refinancing, the best strategy isn't necessarily to try to perfectly predict the market.
It is to understand your options, compare the available rates and structure your mortgage around what makes sense for your own situation.
If you're wondering what today's bond market means for your mortgage or upcoming renewal, feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to walk through the numbers and explain what is actually happening in plain English.
Kai Laporte
Mortgage Agent Level 2
613-281-8465
[email protected]
www.laportelending.ca
FSRA 10575
*Market conditions and mortgage rates change frequently. Information provided for general educational purposes and is not financial advice. Mortgage rates and qualification depend on the lender, borrower and individual circumstances.*
Kai Laporte - Capital Mortgages Inc. is an accredited professional mortgage brokerage with The Mortgage Centre