Nick Holloway - The Mortgage Advisors

12/10/2025

The Bank of Canada has held the overnight rate at 2.25%, marking the final scheduled rate decision for 2025.

After a year of uncertainty — from U.S. trade tensions to shifting global markets — Canada’s economy is showing signs of resilience.

Key highlights include:

✅ Overnight rate & Bank Prime Lending: The Bank’s policy rate remains at 2.25%, at the lower end of its “neutral” range of 2.25%–3.25%. Bank Prime Lending rates, which affect variable rate mortgages and lines of credit, remain unchanged at 4.45%.
✅ Inflation: CPI inflation remains close to the 2% target, with October registering 2.2%. Core inflation is steady, and overall price growth is expected to stay near target into 2026.
✅ Labour market: Employment has improved in recent months, with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5% in November. While trade-sensitive sectors face challenges, overall job gains show the economy adjusting.
✅ GDP growth: Canada’s economy rebounded in Q3 with 2.6% growth, following a 1.8% decline in Q2 due to lower exports. This volatility largely reflects swings in net trade, while final domestic demand remained flat. Growth is expected to pick up in 2026, though quarterly fluctuations may continue.
✅ Policy stance: The Bank sees today’s rate as “about the right level” to keep inflation near target while supporting the economy through structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated, and the Bank is ready to respond if economic conditions or inflation deviate from expectations.

The Bank’s next overnight rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for January 28, 2026.

09/17/2025

📢 Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates to 2.5%

The Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight policy rate by 0.25%, moving it from 2.75% to 2.5% at today’s scheduled announcement. This is the first rate cut since March 2025, following three straight meetings with no change. As a result, Canada’s prime lending rate is expected to fall from 4.95% to 4.70%, offering welcome relief to borrowers with variable-rate mortgages and other floating-rate loans.

🌎 Global backdrop:

Economic growth worldwide is showing signs of slowing.

In the U.S., business investment remains strong, but consumer spending and job gains have weakened.

Trade tensions and tariffs are weighing on Europe and China, while global oil prices remain steady.

Financial conditions have eased, with stronger equity markets and lower bond yields.

🇨🇦 Canada’s economy:

GDP declined by about 1.5% in Q2, largely due to trade uncertainty and tariffs.

Exports fell 27%, reversing early-year gains, and business investment weakened.

On the positive side, consumer spending and housing activity continued to grow.

Employment has softened, especially in trade-sensitive sectors, pushing unemployment to 7.1% in August.

💰 Inflation:

Headline CPI inflation held steady at 1.9%, while core inflation is around 2.5–3%, though momentum has slowed.

The removal of many retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods should help ease some price pressures in the months ahead.

🏡 What this means for Canadians:
The rate cut reflects the Bank’s efforts to support growth while keeping inflation in check. For homeowners and buyers, this could mean lower borrowing costs—making now an important time to review your mortgage strategy and financing options.

🔎 The next Bank of Canada rate decision is scheduled for October 29, 2025.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/

04/16/2025

The Bank of Canada have released latest scheduled interest rate decision and monetary policy report. Following the past 7 meetings of interest rate cuts, the Bank have taken a pause and held their overnight lending rate at 2.75%, with lender prime rates expected to remain at 4.95% as a result.

A summary of the main points as follows:

• Global Trade Challenges: A major shift in US trade policy and uncertainty over US tariffs is diminishing prospects for economic growth and raises inflation expectations.

• Global Economic Outlook: Economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation easing towards the 2% target. The US economy is slowing amid rising policy uncertainty with inflation expectations have risen. The Euro zone growth is modest in 2025. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024, but recent data shows it slowing modestly.

• Market Turmoil: Volatile financial markets & falling oil prices weigh on global prospects. Canadian dollar appreciates amid US dollar weakness.

• Canadian Economy: Slowing growth due to tariffs and uncertainty. Declining consumer and business confidence is resulting in weakened spending. Labour market recovery stalls with March employment down, wage growth continues to moderate.

• Inflation Insights: CPI inflation for March at 2.3%, however is higher than the 1.8% December 2024 number, which is partly impacted by goods price rebound & GST/HST reinstatement. Short-term inflation expectations have moved up as businesses and consumers anticipate higher costs from ongoing trade conflict and supply disruptions. Longer term inflation expectation is little changed.

The Governing Council continue to assess downward pressure on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressure on inflation from higher costs which is creating a lot of uncertainty in forward projections. Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 4, 2025.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/fad-press-release-2025-04-16/

04/15/2025

Well deserved and congratulations to the best mortgage brokerage around!

It’s great to be part of the TMA family!

We’re thrilled to share that The Mortgage Advisors has been named a finalist for Brokerage of the Year (25 Employees or More) at the !

What makes this honour even more special is that we were nominated by our amazing agents — your trust, dedication, and belief in our mission means the world.

🏆 Winners will be announced May 1st at the Mortgage Awards Gala — fingers crossed!

03/12/2025

The Bank of Canada’s releases their latest interest rate decision with a further 0.25% interest rate cut, lowering the overnight policy rate to 2.75%.

This brings the 7th consecutive cut in the Banks policy rate, with main prime lending rates expected to lower from 5.20% to 4.95%. This reduction will help to reduce variable rate lending products.

A summary of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

• The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position with inflation close to 2% target and 2024 Q4 GDP growth of 2.6%, following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in Q3. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada.

• After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months while US inflation has remained slightly above target. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth.

• Inflation in Canada remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2.5% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.

• Canadian employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.

• The Bank highlighted that monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, however it must ensure that higher prices as a result of tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation. The Banks Governing Council will need to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will be closely monitoring inflation expectations and remains committed to its mandate of maintaining price stability for Canadians.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target and release of the Monetary Policy Report is April 16, 2025.

01/21/2025

The latest headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 was released today by StatsCan. The annual inflation change increased by 1.8%, down from 1.9% in November. The one month change from November to December was -0.4%, following a zero change in November. Part of the decline was as a result of the GST/HST sales tax break starting on December 14 2024, with approximately 10% of the "All-Items" CPI basket being affected by the tax exemption.

The shelter component grew at a slightly slower pace in December, rising 4.5% year over year following a 4.6% increase in November, which continues to contribute the biggest gains to the overall index. Included within shelter, rent decelerated on a year-over-year basis in December (+7.1%) compared with November (+7.7%), with a monthly change of 0.3%. Additionally, mortgage interest cost index decelerated for the 16th consecutive month, reaching 11.7% year over year in December 2024, with a monthly change of 0.4%.

Removing the shelter component weighting from the all-items index, the annual rate of change decreases from 1.8% to 0.8%.

Further details can be found here:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250121/dq250121a-eng.htm?HPA=1

12/11/2024

Today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a second consecutive 0.50% rate cut, lowering the overnight policy rate to 3.25%. This marks the fifth consecutive meeting in which the BoC has reduced its key interest rate as part of its monetary policy strategy. It is expected that lenders will follow suit, adjusting their prime lending rates to 5.45%, down from the current 5.95%.

The BoC’s decision brings the overnight rate to the upper end of the neutral rate range, estimated to be between 2.25% and 3.25%. The neutral rate is broadly defined as the interest rate that maintains the economy operating at its full potential, neither stimulating nor constraining economic growth.

A summary of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

• Global Economic Conditions: The global economy is evolving broadly as expected in the banks last Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy continues to show broad based strength and inflation which is holding steady. Global financial conditions have eased, and the Canadian dollar has depreciated against the broad strength in the US dollar.
• Canadian Economic Performance: The Canadian economy grew by 1% in the third quarter and somewhat below the Banks October projection. The fourth quarter is also expected to show weaker growth. Lower interest rates have started to support household spending, particularly in consumer spending and housing, but business investment, inventories, and exports have remained weak.
• Labour Market: The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, as employment growth has slowed compared to the growth in the labour force. Wage growth, while still elevated, has shown signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.
• Inflation: CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: The Bank’s Governing Council (GC) has reduced the policy rate by a total of 1.75% (175 basis points) since June. Despite the recent rate cuts, the GC believes that the economy still operates in excess supply and below full potential. Going forward, GC will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time, guided by incoming information and assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook.

The next scheduled rate announcement is on January 29, 2025. The BoC will also publish its next full economic outlook at that time, which will include updated projections for growth, inflation, and risks to the economic forecast.

10/23/2024

The Bank of Canada at its latest scheduled announcement have made a “super-sized” cut of 0.50% to their overnight policy rate, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%. This is the fourth meeting in a row the Bank has reduced the policy rate, with the previous three meetings having a quarter percent cut each. The bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

A summary of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

• The Bank expect global economy to expand at a rate of around 3% over the next two years. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months to around central banks target levels. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report.

• The Canadian economy grew around 2% in the first half of the year, while the Bank expect growth of 1.75% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.

• GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations.

• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.

• CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized. The bank expects inflation to remain close to target as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.

• With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, the Bank expects to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.

The next scheduled announcement is due on December 11, 2024.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/10/fad-press-release-2024-10-23/

09/17/2024

The latest headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024 was released today by StatsCan. The annual inflation change is 2%, compared to 2.5% in July. The one month change from July to August was -0.2%, after a 0.4% increase in July. Lower gasoline prices and base year effects contributed most to the deceleration, while mortgage interest costs and rents remained the largest contributor of the index. Excluding mortgage interest costs, the CPI rose by 1.2% year over year.

Further details can be found here:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240917/dq240917a-eng.htm

09/04/2024

The Bank of Canada have announced a cut of 0.25% to their overnight policy rate, bringing the rate to 4.25%. This is the third scheduled meeting in a row the Bank has made a quarter point cut, having started 2024 at 5%. The bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

A summary of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

• The global economy expanded by around 2.5% in the second quarter, consistent with July’s projections. The US economic growth was stronger than expected, but the labour market has slowed. Inflation in Europe and US has continued to moderate. Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields.

• The Canadian economy grew by 2.1% in Q2, led by government spending and business investment. Slightly stronger than forecasted, however primarily indicators suggest economic activity was soft through June and July. The labour market continues to slow. Wage growth remained elevated relative to productivity.

• Inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July as expected. The Banks preferred measures of core inflation averaged 2.5%. High shelter price inflation remains the biggest contributor to total inflation but is beginning to slow.

• Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increase in shelter and some other services are holding up inflation. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation, and monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of implications for the inflation outlook.

The next scheduled announcement and release of an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is due on October 23, 2024.

07/24/2024

The Bank of Canada announced a further rate cut of 0.25% to their overnight policy rate, bringing the rate to 4.50%, accompanied by the release of their latest Monetary Policy Report. The bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

A summary of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

• The global economy is expected to expand at about 3% through 2026. Inflation is above central bank targets in most advanced economies; however it is forecasted to ease gradually. In the United States, the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating. US inflation looks to have resumed its downward path.

• In Canada, economic growth likely picked up to around 1.5% through first half of this year. However, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased. GDP growth is forecast to increase in second half of 2024 and 2025, reflecting stronger exports and recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease. Residential investment is expected to grow robustly, with new government limits on non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025.

• CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May. Broad inflationary pressures are easing. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm. Shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and remains the biggest contributor to total inflation.

• The banks preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to around 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025. The bank expects CPI inflation to come down below core inflation in the second half of the year, largely as a result of base year effects on gasoline prices.

• Ongoing excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures, while price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Governing Council is assessing these opposing forces on inflation, and future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and their implications for the inflation outlook.

The next scheduled announcement is due on September 4, 2024.

Full announcement and Monetary Policy Report can be accessed from here:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/07/fad-press-release-2024-07-24/

06/05/2024

Bank of Canada have today announced a reduction to their overnight policy rate by 0.25% to 4.75%.

This has been the first loosening of monetary policy since the tightening cycle began 27 months ago.

Some of the key points of todays announcement as follows:

* Global economy grew by about 3% in Q1 2024. US economy expanded but more slowly than expected.
* In Canada, economic growth resumed in Q1 2024 at 1.7%, slower than forecasted in the last Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Overall, recent data suggest economy is still operating in excess supply.
* Canadian CPI inflation eased in April to 2.7% annually, with core inflation (the banks preferred measure) also slowed and three-month measures suggest continued downward momentum.
* With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, Governing Council (GC) agreed monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive.
* Recent data has increased confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target.
* GC is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
* The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

The next scheduled announcement is due on July 24, 2024.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/fad-press-release-2024-06-05/