Casey Scobie - Mobile Mortgage Agent

10/15/2026

Thoughts for the week of October 12th 2026

Most people waiting on the Bank of Canada’s next announcement are watching the wrong number. The Bank sets its overnight rate again on October 28. It’s the biggest financial headline of the month, and plenty of buyers and homeowners are holding off on decisions until they hear it. But here’s what often gets lost: the Bank’s rate directly moves variable-rate mortgages through prime. Fixed rates mostly follow bond markets, which tend to react to where the economy is heading, often well before the Bank says anything. By announcement day, a lot of the news is already priced in. Meanwhile, the Ottawa picture is moving on its own. September brought a surge of new listings, a dip in the benchmark price, and flat sales. The Ottawa Real Estate Board was clear that one month isn’t a trend, and I agree. What stands out is how different the segments look. Condos have plenty of supply and negotiating room. Townhouses and detached homes are noticeably tighter. So what does this mean for you? If you’re buying, spend less energy guessing the Bank’s next move and more on what you can comfortably carry and which property type you’re actually targeting. If you’re renewing in the next several months, the time to compare options is before your lender’s offer arrives, not after. Many lenders will let you lock in a renewal rate well ahead of your date, and a broker can show you what the wider market is offering. If you’d like help sorting out what applies to your situation, I’m happy to talk it through.

Reach out to me at 613-447-1355 or at [email protected]

10/05/2026

Thoughts for Monday

A lot of people think the Bank of Canada sets their mortgage rate, so when the Bank holds steady, they assume nothing changes. This week is a good reminder that isn't how it works.

The Bank held its policy rate in early September, and yet over the past couple of weeks every one of the Big Six banks has moved its fixed rates higher. Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, and those have been climbing on global worries that high energy prices will keep inflation sticky. Variable rates follow the Bank directly, and markets are now genuinely split on whether it acts at its late-October meeting. So fixed and variable borrowers are watching two different clocks.

For Ottawa homeowners, the timing matters most if you're renewing. Roughly 1.15 million mortgages renew across Canada this year, and plenty of them were set back in 2020 and 2021. Locally, home prices held steady in August even as sales slowed, so the value side of your picture is stable. What's moving is the cost of the money itself.

If your renewal is within the next four months or so, two things are worth doing now. First, ask about a rate hold, which is usually free and protects you if rates keep climbing. Second, compare before your renewal letter arrives, not after. Your bank can only show you its own products; a broker can compare across lenders, and since straight switches on uninsured mortgages generally no longer require the stress test, you likely have more room to move than you used to.

If you'd like to talk through what this means for your renewal, I'm happy to walk through it with you.

Casey Scobie Mortgage Agent Level 2 M21003106
[email protected]
Mobile 613-447-1355

The Mortgage Advisors Lic #11947
500-2725 Queensview Dr, Ottawa, Ontario, K2B 0A1

09/28/2026

Monday morning Mortgage/Real Estate thoughts.

If you locked in a low rate back in 2020 or 2021 and you're coming up on renewal, you might be assuming your only real option is whatever your current lender offers — because for the last little while, that was often true.

That's changed, and it's worth knowing before your renewal letter shows up.

Until recently, switching lenders at renewal meant requalifying under the stress test, even if you'd made every single payment on time for five years. For homeowners renewing into a higher rate than they started with, that test was often the exact thing that made switching impossible — so people just accepted whatever number their existing bank sent them. That barrier has now been removed for straightforward switches and transfers. You'll still go through normal underwriting — credit check, appraisal, payment history — but the qualifying-rate hurdle that used to lock people in with their current lender is gone.

In practical terms, that means real leverage is back for anyone renewing this year. It's actually worth comparing what other lenders will offer instead of just signing whatever arrives in the mail.

Here at home, the backdrop supports patience rather than urgency either way: Ottawa sales pulled back sharply in August, but prices held steady and supply tightened rather than piling up. That's not a market falling apart — it's one where there's room to negotiate, on the mortgage side especially.

If your renewal is coming up in the next few months, it's worth a real conversation before you just sign what's mailed to you. Happy to walk through what your options actually look like.

📍 Ottawa | Mortgage Advisor | The Mortgage Advisors
Phone # 613-447-1355
[email protected]

09/21/2026

Monday Afternoon Market Update:

Most of the mortgage chatter this week centers on one number: Canadian home prices just posted their third straight monthly decline, and national sales hit their weakest August since 2012. Read the headlines and the conclusion looks obvious — it's a buyer's market, and if you wait, things will only get better.
Ottawa's numbers tell a different story, and it's worth understanding before you make a decision based on the national picture.
Sales here dropped sharply last month, but prices barely moved. That combination usually doesn't mean a flood of bargains — it means buyers and sellers are both hesitating, watching each other, waiting for the other side to blink. A lot of the "extra inventory" showing up in the stats is actually sellers pulling listings rather than accepting lower offers, not new homes hitting the market. That's a stalled market, not a clearance sale.
At the same time, the Bank of Canada held its rate steady again this month, and bond markets — which usually move ahead of mortgage rates — have started pricing in the chance of increases down the road rather than more cuts. That's a shift from where things stood earlier this year, and it matters if your plan has been "wait for rates to drop further before I do anything."
None of this means panic. It means the easy assumptions — prices will keep falling, rates will keep falling — deserve a second look before you build a plan around them, whether you're buying your first place, thinking about a move, or coming up on a renewal.
If you want to talk through what this actually means for your specific timeline, I'm happy to walk through it with you.

613-447-1355 or by email at [email protected]

09/01/2026

Good and Happy Tuesday to you all.

News This Week..

-The Bank of Canada is expected to hold for a 6th straight time. The Bank of Canada meets September 2 and is widely expected to keep the overnight rate at 2.25%. Rate cuts remain off the table for now.

-Iran conflict pushing bond yields — and fixed rates — higher. Oil price spikes from the conflict have raised inflation fears, which pushed bond yields up. Since fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields (not the BoC), this is applying upward pressure on fixed rates even while the policy rate sits still.
Ottawa July numbers: inventory up, prices flat. 1,325 homes sold in July — slightly above last July but down from June. Active listings are 11.2% higher year-over-year. Benchmark price ~$634K, essentially flat. More choice, less urgency.

Sources:
https://lnkd.in/g3CtsigP
https://lnkd.in/gZDx2izw
https://lnkd.in/gmBdqt8y
https://lnkd.in/gnRTsXuC

Your mortgage rate is being influenced by a war in the Middle East. That sounds strange, but it's actually how this works.
When conflict drives oil prices up, it raises inflation fears. When inflation fears rise, bond yields rise. And fixed mortgage rates in Canada are priced off bond yields — not the Bank of Canada's policy rate. So even though the BoC is widely expected to hold rates for the sixth consecutive time on Wednesday, fixed mortgage rates have been moving up on their own.
This is the part that trips people up: the Bank of Canada and your mortgage rate are related, but they're not the same thing. The BoC controls the overnight rate. The bond market — reacting to everything from domestic inflation to international conflict — controls fixed rates.
What does this mean in Ottawa right now? If you've been sitting on the fence waiting for things to "settle down" before buying, that's a reasonable instinct. But the factors moving rates aren't always predictable or local. Inventory is up over 11% compared to last year, prices are essentially flat, and there's more negotiating room in the market than there's been in a while — especially for condos. The rate environment is noisy, but the buying conditions in Ottawa are actually pretty reasonable.
The question isn't whether things will calm down. It's whether your situation makes sense today, given what's actually in front of you.
If you want to run through the numbers and see where you stand, I'm happy to talk it through.
📍 Ottawa | Mortgage Advisor | The Mortgage Advisors
613-447-1355
[email protected]

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08/24/2026

The Bank of Canada held rates again — sixth time in a row. 🟰

Sounds like nothing happened. Something did.

Ottawa inventory is up, prices have eased, and buyers finally have room to breathe and negotiate instead of racing the clock.

Renewing soon? Lot's to talk about in this ever changing rate environment.

Before you make any decisions PLEASE REACH OUT TO ME!

08/17/2026

News This Week
Thought about a little post today amidst all the news of course.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady on July 15 for a sixth straight decision, and economists at RBC now say the central bank may be done cutting for this cycle, with the next announcement not until September 2 (WOWA, RBC Economics). Nationally, CMHC's mid-year outlook says the housing market will "remain subdued" for the rest of 2026 due to slow population growth and continued affordability pressure (Greatest Boomever / CMHC summary). Locally, Ottawa's median home price sits at $659K, down 2.9% month-over-month, with inventory elevated at roughly 3.5 months of supply and sales still lagging last year's pace (Search Listings Online).
There’s a lot of stuff happening these days, but I’d like to focus on 2 things this morning.
1. The all important to the Bank of Canada, inflation data released today. Not great. Some good, some bad.
2. CUSMA trade agreement and 50% tariff implementation on Wednesday if no agreement reached. Anxiety lives here.
Inflation:
Some no so great news on the inflation front, early this morning in Canada.
Starting with the good news:
• Core measures, CPI median and CPI Trimmed-Mean, remain at and lower than 2%.
o However, they came in slightly higher than market expectations.
o The Bank of Canada keeps a close eye on the median and trimmed numbers.
 2% or less is good if sustainable long term.
Bad News:
• Headline inflation hit 3% and is at it’s second highest reading in the past 12 months.
• Over-all core inflation jumped to 2.3%. Core excludes volatile food and energy prices and an increase here is not good news.
Gasoline price inflation accelerated to 25.7% from 20.5% in the previous month, tracking wholesale oil and refined product markets globally as strikes between Iran and the US reignited in the period and triggered blockades on tankers in the key region.
In turn, core inflation rates tracked by the Bank of Canada inched slightly higher, with the median core rate up at 2% and the trimmed-mean rate at 1.9%. source: Statistics Canada
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi
Canada Inflation Rate
Canada’s 5 year bond yield is up about 3bps on the inflation news this morning.
Canada 5 Year Bond
Yield | 9:05 AM EDT
3.307%
+0.028
CA5Y-CA: Canada 5 Year Bond - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC
CUSMA:
When it comes to trade and tariffs look no further than the massive deficit spending the US is having to understand that the US needs tariffs to drive revenue to offset some of this unsustainable debt. Don’t get me wrong, Canada also suffers massive deficits, but the US sees tariffs as revenue to drive them down.
Here’s a snapshot of the US deficit/debt
• July’s $432 billion deficit was largest monthly deficit in over 5 years.
• $104 billion is what the US paid in interest on their debt in July alone.
• Fiscal YTD the US has paid over $850 billion in interest on its debt, well on their way to over $1 trillion in interest for the year.
• The US is soon to hit $40 trillion in total debt.
Cut spending and/or increase revenue (tariffs)
To summarize. In my opinion Canada is going to have to agree to have American importers and consumers pay some level of tariffs (import taxes) on the products we export to them. Typically, 15% seems to be the magic number negotiated with other trading partners.
• Will Canada agree to being tariffed at 10%/15% or so, or will we wait out this administration and wait to negotiate with the next one?
United States Government Budget
The US government posted a $432 billion budget deficit in July 2026. Government outlays rose to $766 billion in July 2025, led by Medicare spending of $174 billion. Social Security costs reached $141 billion, while net interest accounted for $104 billion and national defense for $91 billion. Meanwhile, government receipts fell to $334 billion, with individual income taxes contributing $173 billion. source: Financial Management Service, US Treasury
Some CUSMA Details:
• Expires in 2032
o Reviewed every year until an extension is negotiated.
• The deadline of August 19th is for 50% tariffs to be placed on some Canadian products if an agreement isn’t reached.
• However, the US could cancel it with a 6-month notice period.
Article with some more detail for your review:
Where do Canada-U.S. trade negotiations stand? Here's a sector-by-sector breakdown | CBC News
Regards,

Inflation Rate in Canada decreased to 2.80 percent in June from 3.20 percent in May of 2026. This page provides - Canada Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

06/05/2026

06/01/2026

05/31/2026

Some moon pics from first weekend at cottage 2026