08/19/2025
For most would-be buyers or refinancers, waiting is historically the gamble with worse odds.
1. Inflation surprises — such as new tariffs, oil shocks, artificial intelligence (AI) investment outweighing AI job losses, loonie depreciation or a combination — could potentially yank rates higher with little warning.
2. Even if rates don’t climb, they could easily go sideways. Canada’s policy rate has done that at least two-thirds of the time since the global financial crisis, as measured by consecutive three-month periods of no rate changes. Indeed, rates could tread water for years — like they did from 2010 to 2014 — putting qualified borrowers who wait no further ahead.
3. Interest rates can fall, but home prices may adjust, wiping out any affordability gains.
4. If rates fall after you buy, you can lock in lower rates later. But if prices rise and you wait to buy, you can’t go back in time and pay less. Like they say, you can refinance rates; you can’t refinance prices.
5. Sellers may get bolder in a lower-rate environment, pulling listings until prices climb.
6. Waiting risks losing the home you love to a less patient buyer.
If your cash flow is tight, a sudden rate spike could make it harder to qualify for the mortgage you need.
7. Locking in a rate today lets you budget with certainty instead of riding the market’s mood swings. Longer-term rate holds range from 90 days to 130 days at the Bank of Montreal and 150 days at Nesto Inc. And if rates drop, you can reset your rate lower before closing.
8. If you’ve got a fixed-rate mortgage that you want to break and refinance before maturity, falling rates mean rising mortgage prepayment penalties.
9. Depending on your lender and mortgage type, such penalties could easily offset most or all of the rate savings.
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For most would-be buyers or refinancers, waiting is historically the gamble with worse odds.