GeiserCorp

GeiserCorp Private Equity Investment / Specialized Asset Management / U.S. Small-Cap Stocks Our offices are located in Montreal, Canada and Geneva, Switzerland

Geiser offers advisory, financing and asset management services to emerging companies and institutional investors. We operate in two complementary business segments: Private Equity and Asset Management.

10/26/2011

Market's Bird View for Wednesday, October 26th

Benefiting from some upbeat economic data as well as optimism about the summit of European leaders later today, stocks moved sharply higher at the start of trading on Wednesday. The major averages showed notable moves to the upside after moving sharply lower Tuesday.

The initial strength on Wall Street was partly due to the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing a smaller than expected drop in durable goods orders for September, with the decrease largely due to weakness from the transportation sector.

The report showed that durable goods orders fell by 0.8% in September after edging down by 0.1% in August. Economists had been expecting orders to show a larger drop of 1%.

Excluding a 7.5% decrease in orders for transportation, durable goods orders actually jumped by 1.7% in September, far exceeding economist estimates for a 0.5% increase.

The markets are also benefiting from greater optimism that a meeting of European leaders in Brussels will result in an agreement on the steps needed to resolve the euro zone debt crisis. Ahead of the meeting, Germany's lower house of parliament approved a motion to strengthen the euro zone rescue fund.

Upbeat earnings news is also contributing to the strength on Wall Street, with aerospace giant Boeing (BA) jumping by 5.2% after reporting better than expected third quarter earnings and raising its full year earnings guidance.

Steel stocks are turning in some of the market's best performances in early trading after coming under pressure in the previous session. The NYSE Arca Steel Index is advancing by 2.3% after falling by 3.8% on Tuesday.

Health insurance, airline, housing, and gold stocks have also shown notable moves to the upside, with gold stocks benefiting from an increase by the price of the precious metal. On the other hand, some trucking and retail stocks are bucking the uptrend.

The price of crude oil was steady near its 3-month high Wednesday morning as traders await cues from the official inventories data, due out later during the session. Today during trading hours, the EIA will come out with its U.S. crude oil inventories report for the week ended October 21. Analysts expect crude oil inventories to rise by 1.48 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are seen dipping 1.75 million barrels. Crude for December edged down $0.24 to $92.93 a barrel.

In Europe, markets are marginally higher in afternoon trading. The DAX index is adding 0.13%, the CAC 40 is gaining 0.28% and the FTSE 100 index is advancing 0.16%. However, Switzerland's SMI is retreating 0.22%.

In Germany, SAP is losing 1.1% despite reporting stellar third-quarter results, while Merck is climbing 6% after reporting increases in third-quarter profit and revenue. In Paris, Renault is rising 2.6%and Peugeot is adding 1.1%. Peugeot said its revenues for the third quarter increased 3.5 percent from last year.

In economic news, France's manufacturing business leaders' expectations for domestic as well as export demand significantly declined, a quarterly survey by the statistical office INSEE showed. The October quarter survey showed that indicator reflecting the total demand outlook fell to -6 from 7 in the July survey.

Most Asian markets ended marginally higher amid cautious trade Wednesday as traders awaited cues from today's EU meeting, which is expected to come with a tangible solution for the euro zone debt crisis.

Chinese shares extended gains for a third session after Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will fine-tune its economic policies as needed, cementing speculation the central bank may pause interest-rate increases. Traders hoped for lower the reserve-requirement ratio for small-and medium-size banks before the year-end and cut interest rates in the second quarter next year

The Shanghai Composite index added 16.54 points or 0.69% to 2,426.22. China's biggest cement maker, Anhui Conch gained over 2% after recording a 125 percent jump in its third quarter net income. Developers China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. rose nearly 4% each on hopes of halt in further interest rate hikes.

In Japan market edged down, with the Nikkei average losing 13.84 points to 8,748.47. Game maker Nintendo Co. shed over 4% amid reports that the company will report a wider loss. Optical equipment company Olympus Corp. dropped over 7% amid allegations of wrongful conduct related to pricey acquisitions. Meanwhile, electronic parts maker TDK Corp. advanced over 8% after Nomura recommended the shares.

10/25/2011

Stocks continue to see significant weakness in late morning trading on Tuesday after moving sharply lower earlier in the session. While the major averages have moved off their worst levels of the day, they remain firmly in negative territory.

The weakness on Wall Street reflects renewed concerns about the situation in Europe after finance ministers canceled a Wednesday meeting. While European leaders still plan to hold their highly-anticipated summit, the reaction to the finance minister news reflects the continued focus on Europe.

The pullback by the markets also reflects disappointing earnings news from diversified manufacturer 3M Co. (MMM) as well as a report from the Conference Board showing an unexpected deterioration in consumer confidence in the month of October. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in October, falling from an upwardly revised 46.3 (from 45.4) in September to 39.8.

Brokerage, airline, natural gas and housing stocks are also under pressure, giving back some ground after trending higher in recent weeks.

While most of the other major sectors have also moved to the downside, gold stocks have shown a strong upward move amid a notable increase by the price of the precious metal.

European markets are out of step with each other today, with the German and UK markets firmer, while France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland take the low road, as markets wait for the next chapter of the Eurozone debt crisis management story.

In Paris, the CAC down 10 at 3,210 while in Madrid the IBEX is off 19 points at 8,938. The Swiss Market index is down 26 at 5,763 while in Milan the MIB is 42 points lower at 16,190.

A major reason for the CAC's decline is the reaction to chip-maker ST Microelectronics' third quarter trading update. Profits were down 64% from a year earlier at $71m, on sales that fell 4.9% from the year before to $2.44bn. Worst still, the company said it had seen a further falling off in the semi-conductor market in October.

In Frankfurt the strength of banks and car makers is contributing to a 49 point gain on the DAX at 6,104. The GFK consumer confidence index reading for November is also helping sentiment; the index rose to 5.3, up from 5.2 in October and ahead of expectations of a reading of 5.2.

German Deutsche Bank beat market expectations with its third quarter figures. Net income of €725m was more than double the €343m the market had forecast, and compared favourably with a loss of €1.21bn in the corresponding quarter of last year, when the company significant wrote down the value of its Deutsche Postbank acquisition.

Across the border in Switzerland, accident-prone bank UBS saw its third quarter post-tax profits decline 39% year-on-year to €1.02bn, but the fall was much less than expected, thanks to an accounting gain of €1.77bn, as its credit spreads widened. The market had pencilled in a net income figure of €318m.

10/25/2011

Texas Instruments (TXN) and STMicroelectronics (STM) reported a fall in earnings yesterday as the weakening economy continues to weigh on demand for chips. TI's Q3 results were better than expected but below the seasonal average, and EPS slumped to $0.51 from $0.71 and revenue slipped 7.3% to $3.47B. TI predicted a gloomy Q4, with weakness in almost every major market segment, although chips for smartphones remain a bright spot. STMicroelectronics' (STM) Q3 EPS fell to $0.09 from $0.23 as revenue slipped 8.1% to $2.44B, while it also warned that Q4 sales would fall short of analyst estimates.

10/25/2011

On Our Radar

Netflix (NFLX) shares plummeted 38% premarket as a profit warning and worse-than-expected subscriber losses overshadowed Q3 earnings that topped forecasts. Although EPS rose to $1.16 from $0.70 and revenue climbed 49% to nearly $822M, Netflix lost 800K customers compared with a projection of 600K, and warned that additional losses in subscribers would continue. It also forecast Q4 results well below Street estimates and quarterly losses next year due to its entry into the U.K. and Ireland.

Not a pretty story, and not the time to be on the long side. Pandora (P), an internet radio outfit with similar business model may be next. Pandora has done well over the past month with its stock price increasing by about 40%. When looking at how much Sirius has struggled over the years, it is hard to imagine that Pandora can ever post consistent positive earnings. Pandora has plenty of substitutes out there including Grooveshark, 8tracks, and fratmusic.com. Pandora's earnings have been dropping recently instead of increasing, and this may just be a company at one bad earnings report away from dropping 50%. Just beware.

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