04/30/2026
Here’s a simple forecast for the next 6 months: the **most likely outcome is no hike**, with a smaller chance of a 0.25% hike later in 2026 if inflation stays sticky. At the April 29, 2026 decision, the Bank of Canada kept the policy rate at 2.25%, and Reuters reported that all 41 economists in its April poll expected no change at that meeting
6-month outlook
- **Base case: hold** — the BoC is still describing the economy as adjusting to US tariffs, with moderate growth and lingering uncertainty [2][3].
- **Hike case: possible but not dominant** — Reuters reported that markets had assigned more than a 20% chance of a hike as of March, and Scotiabank sees tightening emerging in 2026H2 [4][5].
- **Timing** — the next scheduled decisions are June 10, July 15, September 2, October 28, and December 9, 2026
Probability-style read
- **No change:** about 70% to 80%.
- **One 0.25% hike:** about 20% to 30%.
- **More than one hike:** low probability in the next 6 months
What would push a hike
A hike becomes more likely if inflation rises faster than expected, oil and tariff-related price pressures persist, or growth proves stronger than the BoC currently expects [2][3]. If those pressures fade, the BoC is more likely to stay on hold through the next few meetings
