10/07/2024
The radio is on at work, like it is every day. Today though...... radio guy goes on quite the discussion about mortgage rates and how much they are going to drop in the immediate future.
This weekend I speak to a realtor whom wonders how many people are on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop. Probably lots if they listen to the same radio station.
Last week I have a conversation with a client that is 100% convinced rates will be in the 2-2.5% range soon so he is going to ride out his higher rate until that occurs. FYI, that's about ½ of where they currently are at.
Here's what has happened in the past few days: Rates have increased! Why?
US jobs data was extremely good, 254,000 jobs created in September. This is inflationary by way of headline, as it introduces a bunch more money into the economy. The result: US 10 year treasury and Canadian 5 year bond yields are both up... so fixed rates go up. To be clear, Canada's job market is poor at best and lots of data from the US is either confusing or manipulated. Of the new September jobs 121,000 of them are already employed people taking 2nd jobs......yikes, that's a lot of people in financial duress. Small businesses have decreased work force for the past 5 straight months...yikes, that's a lot of small businesses potentially facing financial duress. And consumer confidence is way down, all across North America. Oh, and through the first half of this year the US jobs data per month has been adjusted (revised) after another month, when real jobs data is available. So far.... 800,000 jobs revision; downward, so jobs data at first release has been significantly inaccurate.
Cory, what does it all mean? 1) Get your information from someone whom analyzes the input factors. 2) Use a lender that has rate protection during the 120 days leading to your new mortgage advance. Rate increases are a real possibility as the USA chases inflation and Canada will then need to protect the value of currency by not decreasing rates as fast as many think they will.
Of note: The adjustable/variable rate in Canada is still a full 1% higher than it needs to be before it would return to favourable (or level) vs. current fixed rates.
And if you have read this far, a piece of valuable information, because many people simply don't know. If your mortgage is due for renewal next week it is far too late to shop around. 30-45 days minimum.......and see above....... 120 days prior is ideal so you have rate protection.
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