06/10/2026
The Bank of Canada held rates again today, the fifth time in a row. No surprise there.
But "the Bank held" does not mean your mortgage rate is safe. The rate they froze drives variable mortgages. Fixed rates are set in the bond market, and those have quietly been creeping higher.
So I put together the full picture of what is really happening in the Canadian economy right now: a recession that has lasted longer than they admit, a savings rate quietly falling, an economy that may be bottoming, and why the bond market matters more than today's headline.
Worth a read if you own a home, are renewing soon, or just want to understand where this is heading.
The Bank of Canada makes its rate call this Wednesday, and I will post a short note that day on what it means for your mortgage. This is not that note. Before the headline lands and everyone spends five minutes arguing about the merit of no change (hopefully), I want to step back and lay out what is...