The Financial Collective - Stephen Green

09/03/2026

Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate just passed the national average for the first time since 2010.

Here’s the part that gets left out. Ontario is at 0.32%. Canada is at 0.29%. In May, 14,061 mortgages out of 4.93 million were more than 90 days behind. That means 99.7% of Canadians are current on their mortgage.

Yes, the line is climbing fast. Ontario bottomed at about 0.06% in 2022, the lowest reading in thirty years of data. Coming off a floor that low makes any increase look violent on a chart.

The real story is renewal. Ontario carries the biggest balances in the country, so when a 2020 mortgage renews at a higher payment, this is the province that feels it first. That is a math problem with a solution, and it is worth solving before the renewal date, not after it.

If you are renewing in the next 12 months and you are not sure what the payment looks like, send me a message and I will run the numbers with you. If the answer is that you should stay where you are, I will tell you that too.

Source: Canadian Bankers Association, May 2026

09/03/2026

A trade story is also a housing story, and it is not landing on every province the same way.

New 50 per cent US tariffs took effect on August 19. Measured against each province's exports to the United States, British Columbia is the most exposed at close to 14 per cent. Quebec sits near 11 per cent and Ontario around 9 per cent. Alberta, Saskatchewan, PEI and Newfoundland are near 1 per cent or below. Nationally it is about 5 per cent.

The lists cover building materials, furniture, machinery, plastics, apparel and some agri-food. Energy, potash and critical minerals are excluded, so most exports still cross duty free.

Why a mortgage broker watches this: tariffs land on jobs first, and they land unevenly. One economist puts roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk. Employment and income stability are what lenders actually underwrite.

If your income is tied to an exposed sector, the steps are ordinary. Know your renewal date. Know what you would qualify for today. Leave room in the budget rather than assuming this year looks like last year.

This is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker - The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

09/02/2026

Bad Mortgages or Bad Mortgage Advice?

09/02/2026

Housing affordability just improved for the 10th quarter in a row. That's the longest uninterrupted stretch National Bank has on record.

The mortgage payment on a representative home now takes 51.1% of median household income, the lowest in about four years, down from a 62.5% peak in late 2023.

What's driving it has changed. Through 2024 it was cheaper financing. In Q2 2026, the benchmark five-year mortgage cost actually rose seven basis points. The gain came from a 2.1% drop in home prices and rising household incomes.

Ontario is leading it. Toronto improved 2.5 points to 68.3% of median income as its representative price fell 3.6%. Hamilton sits at 57.5%. Over the past four months, national sales gains came almost entirely from Ontario.

The catch: every major market National Bank tracks is still less affordable than its own long-run average, nationally by 10.4 points. And a softer market doesn't relax the stress test. Qualifying math is unchanged. Your options just got wider.

Full article: https://www.thefinancialcollective.ca/post/ontario-housing-affordability-tenth-straight-quarter-2026

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker - The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

Housing affordability improved for a record 10th straight quarter in Q2 2026. What's driving it and what it means for Ontario buyers.

09/01/2026

Getting a hold in place is step one. Step two is the part most people never get.

On the broker side, we hold your pricing and then keep watching it. If the market improves before you close, we go back in and request the improvement for you.

A lot of banks will hold it and leave it there. You have to ask. Most people don't know to ask.

Buying, renewing, or just thinking about it? Get pre-approved and get a hold in place. That's the message in Season 6, Episode 18 of The Green Effect Podcast.

Watch on YouTube, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Subscribe and leave a five-star review if this was useful — it helps more Canadians find the show.

DM me HOLD and I'll explain how the monitoring works.

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

09/01/2026

Most people watch their savings account and ignore their mortgage.

You’ll shop for a better rate on $20,000 in a savings account. Meanwhile there’s $500,000 sitting on the other side of the balance sheet that nobody has looked at since closing day.

That’s the part that doesn’t make sense to me. The mortgage is the biggest financial position most families will ever hold, and for most people it goes unmonitored for five years at a time.

We send our clients monthly mortgage statements and monthly reports on their property value. Not to sell them something. So they actually know where they stand, and so we can flag it if something changes that’s worth acting on. Sometimes the answer is do nothing. That’s a real answer too.

If nobody has looked at your mortgage since the day you signed, that’s worth a conversation. Reach out and we’ll walk through where you’re at.

09/01/2026

The national number says flat. The city numbers say otherwise.

From April to July 2026, seasonally adjusted, Canadian home prices were essentially unchanged. Underneath that, the spread between cities was about two and a half percentage points.

Ottawa led at roughly 1.2 per cent, with Windsor, Regina, Hamilton and Toronto also positive. Quebec City fell about 1.5 per cent, and London, Vancouver, Halifax and Kitchener were down as well.

A national average is not a market you can buy or sell in. Your equity, your appraisal and your renewal options are set by what your city did, not by the headline.

For context, CREA reported national sales up for a fourth straight month in July, with inventory at 4.7 months, the lowest of 2026 and slightly below the long-term average. Markets are drifting back toward balance rather than moving in one direction.

So if you are renewing within the year or thinking about a move, the useful question is not where Canadian prices are headed. It is what your own market has already done, and what that means for your options.

This is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker - The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

08/31/2026

Stop Losing Hundreds of Thousands to Mortgage Interest

Most homeowners know their Canadian mortgage costs far more than what they initially borrowed. Over a standard amortization, mortgage interest can easily eat up hundreds of thousands of dollars. With a traditional mortgage, that money goes straight to the lender and never comes back.

But what if you could offset those costs?

Enter The Smith Manoeuvre™. Instead of just paying down debt, this strategy allows you to build a tax-deductible investment portfolio alongside your mortgage. As your interest costs you money, your investments grow at the same time—with the long-term design goal of the portfolio completely offsetting your interest costs.

It changes the entire way you think about the biggest monthly payment of your life.

Ready to make your mortgage work for you?

👇 Click below to schedule a consultation and see what this strategy looks like for you!

https://stephengreen.smithman.ca/

08/31/2026

The people with the biggest mortgages are the ones falling behind.

Four years ago, they were the safest borrowers in the country. Lowest delinquency rate of any group. Today they have the highest, by a wide margin. Everyone with a mortgage under $600k? Basically unchanged.

Same economy. Same rates. Completely different outcomes. The one thing that separated them was how much they borrowed on day one.

Nobody talks about this part when you’re getting approved. The number you qualify for is a ceiling, not a target, and the gap between those two things is where renewal stress lives.

If you’ve got a renewal coming, or you’re about to sign something near your maximum, get a second set of eyes on it. I’ve told people to wait. I’ve told people to borrow less than they were approved for. I’d rather do that than put you in a chart like this one.

What would you do if your payment jumped 30% at renewal? Curious what people are actually planning for.

08/31/2026

Canada’s biggest banks just posted earnings, and the mortgage numbers tell two stories at once.
CIBC’s 90+ day mortgage delinquencies rose to 0.51% this quarter (up from 0.47% last quarter, 0.36% a year ago), concentrated in the GTA and Greater Vancouver. Meanwhile RBC posted its fastest quarterly mortgage growth since acquiring HSBC Canada — even as RBC’s own delinquencies ticked up too.
Translation: banks are still competing hard for your mortgage business, even as more borrowers show stress. Good news if you’re shopping a renewal — but also a reason to get ahead of things before you’re the one falling behind.
Send this to anyone renewing or refinancing in the next few months.
DM “RENEW” and I’ll walk through what this means for your file.
Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. 13496