09/09/2026
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% (not exactly a huge surprise).
But something much more interesting is happening south of the border.
The U.S. Federal Reserve meets next on September 15–16.
And as of September 1, markets were pricing roughly a 65–70% chance of a 0.25% RATE HIKE.
Yes, a hike.
While Canada has spent the last couple of years cutting rates and has now moved into a holding pattern, the U.S. may be preparing to move rates higher again.
Inflation is still causing problems in the U.S., and rising energy prices have added another layer of uncertainty.
So what does any of this have to do with your Canadian mortgage?
Quite a bit, actually.
Here’s something important to understand:
➡️ The Bank of Canada directly influences variable mortgage rates through Prime.
➡️ Fixed mortgage rates are influenced much more by the bond market.
And bond markets are global.
If U.S. bond yields move higher, Canadian bond yields can feel that pressure too.
The Bank of Canada can HOLD rates while Canadian fixed mortgage rates still move.
Canada and the U.S. don’t have to move rates in the same direction.
And your mortgage strategy shouldn’t be based on guessing what one central bank will do next.
Look at your:
✅ Financial situation
✅ Mortgage term
✅ Future plans
✅ Risk tolerance
✅ Cash flow
Then build the mortgage around YOU, not around a headline.
Have questions about fixed vs. variable or where rates could go from here?
Send us a message anytime.
📧 [email protected] or DM ⬇️