04/29/2026
📊 Rate Update: The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% today, staying on pause as global conflict, rising oil prices, trade uncertainty, and a weakening labour market continue to cloud the economic outlook.
🌎 Globally, uncertainty remains elevated. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to pressure oil markets, driving higher gas and energy prices worldwide. At the same time, uneven global growth, fragile trade relationships, and broader market volatility are forcing central banks to remain cautious.
🇨🇦 Here at home, Canada’s economy continues to face headwinds. While some consumer spending remains resilient, elevated unemployment, cautious business investment, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding future trade agreements are weighing on growth. Higher fuel and living costs are also adding pressure to household affordability.
📈 Inflation remains near target, but risks are building. While underlying inflation has eased, rising energy prices and prolonged geopolitical instability could reignite inflationary pressures — one of the key reasons the Bank is holding rates steady rather than moving too quickly.
✨ For now, the Bank believes maintaining the current rate is the best path forward - balancing inflation control while allowing the economy time to absorb ongoing shocks. However, future decisions remain highly dependent on incoming data and evolving global conditions.
🗣️ Bottom line: Rates are steady for now, but uncertainty is far from over. With wars, oil shocks, unemployment, and trade risks all in play, the path ahead remains anything but predictable. 💡📉📈
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