Dyllan Hutchings - Mortgage Architects

Home
Canada
Hamilton, ON
Dyllan Hutchings - Mortgage Architects

Call Directions Website

First time home buyer specialist
"Let me do the heavy lifting for you"

As a representative of Mortgage Alliance, my sole mission is to find the perfectly tailored mortgage solution at the lowest possible cost, and to continue looking for opportunities to save my clients money over the life of their mortgage. My passionate and client focused approach will empower you to make informed and educated financial decisions throughout the entire process.

10/28/2026

The Bank of Canada just raised its overnight rate by 0.25%, bringing it from 2.25% to 2.50%.

This is the Bank’s first rate increase since 2023 and comes as inflation has become a growing concern again, particularly with elevated energy prices. The Bank also indicated that further increases are possible, but that it will proceed carefully given the uncertainty surrounding the Canadian economy.

So, what does this mean for mortgages?

📈 Variable-rate mortgage holders should expect prime rates to increase by roughly 0.25%, which will increase borrowing costs.

🏠 Fixed-rate mortgages are not directly affected by today’s decision. Fixed rates are influenced primarily by the bond market, meaning they can move independently of the Bank of Canada.

🔄 If you’re coming up for renewal, today’s decision is another reason to look at your options early rather than waiting until your renewal date.

The bigger question now is whether this is a one-off adjustment or the beginning of another rate-hiking cycle. The Bank has left the door open to further increases, but emphasized that future decisions will depend on how inflation and the economy develop.

If you’re unsure how today’s decision affects your mortgage, renewal, or buying plans, feel free to reach out. There are still plenty of ways to structure a mortgage strategically in a changing rate environment.

09/25/2026

🇺🇸🇨🇦 The U.S. just raised rates. Does that mean Canada is next?

Not necessarily — but there’s an interesting story happening underneath the surface.

On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25%, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the Fed’s first increase since 2023, with the Fed pointing to elevated inflation and continued economic strength.

So what does that mean for Canada?

The Bank of Canada does not automatically follow the Federal Reserve. Canada sets its own monetary policy based on Canadian economic conditions.

At its September 2 decision, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%. The next decision is October 28, when the Bank will also release its latest Monetary Policy Report.

But here’s where things get interesting…

THE GAP BETWEEN FIXED AND VARIABLE

Right now, we have a meaningful difference between Canada’s short-term policy rate and longer-term borrowing costs.

The Bank of Canada overnight rate is 2.25%.

Meanwhile, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is around 3.7%.

And that matters because fixed mortgage rates are heavily influenced by longer-term bond yields, while variable mortgage rates are much more directly connected to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate through prime.

That’s one reason we’re currently seeing variable mortgage rates significantly below many fixed-rate options.

BUT LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2021–22.

As the chart shows, 5-year bond yields began rising before the Bank of Canada started aggressively increasing its overnight rate.

Then the Bank began tightening monetary policy as inflation became increasingly persistent.

As the overnight rate moved higher, the gap between the overnight rate and the 5-year bond yield narrowed.

Could we see something similar again?

Potentially — but history doesn’t guarantee the same outcome.

For the gap between today’s variable and fixed rates to narrow substantially, the Bank of Canada would need to raise its policy rate and/or fixed rates would need to move lower.

And whether the Bank actually raises rates will depend on what happens with inflation, employment, economic growth, energy prices and other financial conditions.

WHAT IS THE BANK WATCHING RIGHT NOW?

Canada's latest data presents a mixed picture.

📈 Canadian GDP grew 3.3% in Q2.

👷 Unemployment was 6.4% in July.

📊 Headline inflation has been around 3%.

⛽ A significant portion of that inflation has been driven by higher gasoline prices.

📉 Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2%, while core inflation remained close to 2% in July.

The Bank also said the Canadian economy continues to have excess supply, while higher energy prices and trade uncertainty have increased the risks surrounding the inflation and growth outlook.

So October 28 isn't simply about what the U.S. Federal Reserve just did.

The bigger question is:

WHAT DOES THE CANADIAN DATA SAY BY OCTOBER 28?

The Bank could hold.

It could raise.

It could eventually cut.

And each outcome would have different implications for variable mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates can continue moving independently as bond yields and lender funding costs change.

THAT'S THE BIG TAKEAWAY:

The Fed raising rates doesn't automatically mean the Bank of Canada will raise rates.

But the current gap between longer-term bond yields, fixed mortgage rates and the Bank of Canada's overnight rate is worth watching.

And if inflation remains elevated and the Bank eventually needs to raise its policy rate, we could see the gap between today's variable and fixed rates narrow — similar to what happened during the 2021–22 tightening cycle.

That isn't a prediction.

It's simply why understanding what drives each type of mortgage rate is so important.

📅 October 28, 2026 — we'll see what the Bank of Canada decides next.

09/16/2026

🇨🇦 Nearly $500 Billion in New Investment Commitments — But What Does It Really Mean?

Nearly $500 billion in new investment commitments were announced at Canada's first Investment Summit in Toronto on September 14–15. But what exactly is being committed, and where is the money going? 🇨🇦

The summit brought together investors from nearly 30 countries, representing more than $100 trillion in assets under management. The federal government says the event resulted in nearly $500 billion in new investment commitments across Canadian businesses, infrastructure, and strategic industries.

Here's how the announced commitments break down:

💰 Institutional investors — Nearly $100 billion in new capital for Canadian assets.

🏦 Canadian banks — Nearly $325 billion in new financing commitments for businesses and infrastructure over various timeframes.

📊 Investment funds — More than $14 billion in capital mobilization commitments.

🏗️ Major projects — Bell Canada and the Government of Saskatchewan announced a $52.5 billion investment in a 1.2-gigawatt AI infrastructure hub in Saskatchewan, which is expected to create more than 4,500 jobs.

So, where is the investment being directed?

🔹 Energy and critical minerals
🔹 Artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure
🔹 Transportation and major infrastructure projects
🔹 Defence and aerospace
🔹 Technology and advanced manufacturing

The government also announced a new Productivity Mega Deduction, which would allow businesses to immediately deduct the cost of a broader range of investments. According to the government, this would reduce Canada's marginal effective tax rate on new business investment from approximately 13% to 6.4%.

What does this mean for Canadians?

The announced investments are intended to support business expansion, infrastructure development, and economic activity. Potential effects include changes in employment, business investment, and demand for goods and services.

However, it's important to distinguish between investment commitments, financing facilities, and money that has already been spent. The timing and eventual economic impact of these announcements will depend on how projects are implemented.

From a mortgage perspective, economic growth, employment, inflation, and investment activity are all factors that can influence the broader interest-rate environment and housing market. However, these announcements do not directly determine mortgage rates or guarantee changes in home prices.

I'll continue breaking down the economic news and explaining what it means for Canadians and the mortgage market. 📊🏡

09/02/2026

The 2027 rate forecasts are in, and it could mean bad news for Variable Rate Mortgage and HELOC holders 👇

Currently, the BOC overnight lending rate sits at 2.25%, where it’s been since October 2025. Here is where the major banks think that overnight rate will land by end of year 2027:

📈 RBC: 3.25% (+1.00%)
📈 Scotiabank: 3.00% (+0.75)
📈 CIBC: 2.75% (+0.50)
📈 National Bank & Desjardins: 2.75% (+0.50)
➡️ TD & BMO: 2.25% (no change anticipated)

Which paints a pretty stark divide. Four of the major banks are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise rates a minimum of 0.50% all up to a full 1.00%. However cooler heads at TD and BMO are forecasting another full year of NO CHANGES, and the overnight rate to remain at 2.25%.

For context, every quarter point change (+0.25) to the Prime Rate increases monthly borrowing costs for variable mortgage and HELOC holders by +$13 per every $100k borrowed. Assuming we take RBC word for it (Canada’s largest mortgage lender), a full 1% increase on a standard $500k mortgage would increase monthly payments by $260! Or over $3000 per year!

Pretty significant if you ask me.

With that being said, personally, I’m with TD and BMO on this one.

Canada is already dealing with high household debt, expensive housing, and a huge number of mortgages working their way through renewals.

Another round of rate increases would put unnecessary pressure on Canadians and our already shaky economy.

Higher mortgage and HELOC payments mean less money being spent elsewhere. Businesses also face higher borrowing costs, which can mean less investment, less hiring and slower economic growth.

And that’s my biggest concern.

For variable mortgage and HELOC borrowers, another 0.50%–1.00% in rate increases could have a very real impact on monthly cash flow.

I think TD and BMO have the more reasonable outlook here.
But as always, these are forecasts — nobody knows exactly where rates will be in 2027.

09/01/2026

Canada vs. USA — Q2 2026, and the numbers tell two totally different stories 🇨🇦 🇺🇸

Let's talk about it, because if you're watching interest rates or just trying to understand what's happening with the economy, this quarter is a great case study.

Canada came in a lot hotter than expected — GDP grew 3.3% annualized 📈— the fastest pace we've seen in over three years, and enough to confirm we dodged a technical recession. The engine behind it?

Exports absolutely surged, up over 15%, mostly thanks to a rebound in auto production and energy. Businesses also opened up their wallets, with investment jumping over 12%.

Meanwhile, south of the border, the U.S. cooled off. GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, down from 2.1% the quarter before and it actually missed what economists expected. 📉 Government spending pulled back and rising imports ate into the numbers a bit.

So on paper, Canada "won" the quarter. But here's the twist: when you look at jobs, the story flips. Canada added a solid 70K jobs in Q2, but our unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7%.. The U.S., on the other hand, kept unemployment steady in the low 4% range after a meager 13k net loss to jobs — a much tighter, healthier labour market overall.

And consumer spending? Basically a tie. Canadians and Americans both kept spending at almost the exact same pace (around 3.3-3.4%), so nobody's tightening their belt just yet on either side of the border.

The real question is what happens next. Canada's growth is leaning hard on exports right as new U.S. tariffs threaten to slow that down, while the U.S. slowdown might actually be masking a more resilient underlying economy. Two very different pictures heading into fall. 👀

08/25/2026

You’ve been pre-approved for a mortgage… but that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re ready to cross the finish line just yet 🏡

A pre-approval is an important first step. It gives you an idea of how much you may qualify to borrow and can help you shop with more confidence.

But there’s still more work to do.

Before your mortgage is officially approved, the lender will typically need to confirm your full financial situation and review the property you’re buying.

Here are a few things that can change between pre-approval and final approval:

📄 Your income still needs to be verified
💳 New debt or credit inquiries can affect your qualification
📉 Changes to your credit can impact your approval
🏠 The property itself needs to meet the lender’s requirements
💰 And just because you qualify for a certain amount doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the right budget for you

Think of a pre-approval as a starting point — not the finish line.

The best thing you can do after getting pre-approved is keep your finances stable, avoid taking on unnecessary new debt, and speak with your mortgage professional before making any major financial decisions.

That new car might be exciting… but maybe wait until after you get the keys. 😅🔑

If you’re thinking about buying a home and want to understand what you actually qualify for — and what you can comfortably afford — send me a message. 📲

08/24/2026

The Canada-U.S. trade war just escalated again… but what could that mean for your mortgage? 🇨🇦🇺🇸

On August 21, trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. broke down, and the U.S. imposed new 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.

Canada has responded by announcing dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, expected to take effect after Labour Day.

So why should homeowners and future buyers care?

Trade wars can have a ripple effect throughout the entire economy.

📉 Tariffs can hurt Canadian exports and economic growth.

👷 Certain industries and jobs could face additional pressure.

📈 At the same time, tariffs can potentially increase the cost of goods, creating inflation concerns.

🏦 That leaves the Bank of Canada in a difficult position: a weaker economy could support lower interest rates, while inflation could make rate cuts more difficult.

And that uncertainty can flow directly into the mortgage market.

The important thing to remember is that there isn't necessarily a simple “tariffs = lower mortgage rates” equation.

A weaker economy could put downward pressure on rates over time. But rising inflation, bond-market volatility and global uncertainty can push borrowing costs in the other direction — especially for fixed-rate mortgages.

Bottom line: the Canada-U.S. trade situation is about much more than politics.

It could impact jobs, prices, inflation, interest rates and ultimately the housing market.

For anyone buying, renewing or refinancing, staying informed and having a flexible mortgage strategy is becoming increasingly important.

📲 Questions about how the changing economy could impact your mortgage plans? Send me a message.

08/21/2026

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate steady so far this year… so why are fixed mortgage rates still creeping higher? 🤔

It’s a good reminder that the Bank of Canada does not directly set fixed mortgage rates.

While the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate has remained unchanged, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield — one of the key benchmarks used to price fixed mortgages — has been moving higher.

For example:

📈 The 5-year Government of Canada yield was around 3.16% in late July.

📈 It climbed as high as approximately 3.34% in August.

📈 And it has remained elevated around the 3.30% range this week.

That increase may seem small, but bond markets move in basis points, and even a relatively small change can affect how lenders price their fixed-rate mortgages.

The simple version:

Bank of Canada overnight rate → has stayed the same.
Bond yields → have increased.
Fixed mortgage rates → are starting to follow.

This is why waiting for the next Bank of Canada announcement isn't always the best strategy when you're shopping for a fixed mortgage. Fixed rates can move before the Bank of Canada makes any changes — in either direction.

If you're buying, renewing, or thinking about locking in a fixed rate, understanding which rates are moving — and why — can make a big difference.

📲 Send me a message and let's talk through your mortgage options.

08/20/2026

Canada’s housing market may be starting to shift... 👀🏡

After a slow start to 2026, home sales have now increased for 4 consecutive months.

At the same time:

📈 Sales are gradually picking up
📉 New listings have declined for 3 straight months

⚖️ Many markets—including Ontario—are moving closer to balanced conditions

🏠 National home prices posted their first monthly increase since November 2024

What does this mean?

The market may be becoming more competitive without returning to the chaos we saw a few years ago.

For buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” moment, it may be worth taking another look at what’s possible.

Thinking about buying, renewing, or refinancing? Send me a message and let’s build a strategy around your situation. 📲

08/19/2026

🇨🇦 **Canada Inflation Update — July 2026**

Canada’s headline inflation rate rose to **3.0% in July**, largely driven by higher energy and travel-related costs. However, underlying inflation remains much more stable, with **core inflation at 1.95%**, still below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.

For homeowners and borrowers, the key takeaway is that the recent increase appears to be driven primarily by specific categories rather than broad-based price pressures. That could give the Bank of Canada room to remain patient with interest rates through the rest of 2026.

**Thinking about your mortgage strategy?** Whether you’re renewing, buying, or simply wondering what today’s rate environment means for you, I can help you understand your options.

Address

Hamilton, ON

Telephone

+15198595117

Website

https://linktr.ee/hutchmortgagehub, http://www.hutchmortgagehub.ca/

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Dyllan Hutchings - Mortgage Architects posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.