02/15/2024
The 5-year Canadian bond is considered the safest Canadian investment with a 5-year term
Because of its risk-free status it’s often used as a benchmark for other interest rates in Canada.
Fixed mortgage rates are based indirectly on government of Canada bond yields.
That’s why the most popular mortgage term in Canada (the 5-year fixed) closely follows the 5-year bond yield.
The number one factor influencing demand for 5-year bonds is inflation.
High inflation drives down the value of bonds and drives up their yields, and vice versa.
Discounted 5-year fixed rates are typically 150+ basis points above the 5-year yield.
This “spread,” as it’s called, can vary anywhere from under 100 to over 200 in times of financial stress.
Now that you understand the logic behind the relationship between bond yields and the 5 yr mortgage rate - you understand why economists and the Bank of Canada watch closely any movements on the yield chart to predict ( not always accurately ) what will happen next.
Now back to the chart above
Look at the 2 blue arrows , one on the left and one at the extreme right
The one on the left shows you the 5yr bond yield on March 01 2023 and the on the right is the yield as of today Feb 14 2024 at 1700 EST
March 01 2023 saw the yield at 3.69%
And today’s closing yield rate was 3.699% at the closing bell
What does that mean ?
For one, news outlets exaggerate a lot and don’t show you the full picture of what’s really happening
They also choose to show only part of whole picture
What do i mean by that ..
Simple
When you hear that bonds are rising, you need to start asking … but rising compared to what?
If we look at the 12 months comparison that i showed you above, there is no change at all
Now when you look at the yield rate on Dec 20, 2023 which was at 3.18% , it’s normal to see a big jump from 3.18% to 3.69%
What’s next ?
As usual, expect fluctuations in the rate market on a weekly basis, that’s completely normal.
For you to have less anxiety and more peace of mind, i advise that you schedule a call with me so that i can walk you through your options.
437 637 0584