09/10/2026
📈 Why are mortgage rates creeping up again? Let’s talk bonds.
If you’ve noticed fixed mortgage rates ticking higher this week, here’s what’s really going on behind the scenes:
🔹 The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield just hit a fresh 52-week high near 3.48%. This is the number that directly drives your 5-year fixed mortgage rate.
🔹 The 10-year yield jumped too, now near 3.90%, confirming this isn’t a one-day blip. It’s a broader shift in how markets see risk and inflation.
⚡ Two big forces are pushing yields up right now:
1️⃣ Ongoing trade war tension is adding uncertainty to Canada’s economic outlook and pushing investors to demand higher returns on government debt.
2️⃣ Middle East tension has sent oil prices back above $100/barrel, reviving inflation fears that ripple straight into bond markets.
💡 Here’s the key thing to remember: the Bank of Canada hasn’t touched its overnight rate. It’s been sitting at 2.25% for seven straight meetings. Fixed mortgage rates are moving because of the bond market, not because of a Bank of Canada rate hike.
🏠 What this means for you: if you’re renewing, refinancing, or buying in the next few months, don’t assume “rates are rates.” Fixed and variable are being pulled by very different forces right now. Let’s chat about which strategy actually fits your situation.
📩 DM me or drop a comment. Happy to walk you through your options.