Paul Chapman, Investment and Wealth Advisor of RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

06/04/2026

Just when you thought things could not get more confusing, you enter the environment we’re in today – this Partner Memo is here to make some sense of things, and tackle the often confusing and humbling subject of the economy and markets.

It’s not often that I see some of the most experienced and respected market pundits and strategists scratching their heads, but we are in one of those times. The list of things to worry about has been long, and many have questioned why they aren’t influencing the market more negatively: the ongoing Iran conflict, broader geopolitics, terrible consumer confidence, sky-high valuations, increasing bond yields, surging inflation, a highly concentrated market… just to name a few.

On the other hand, over time, the stock market prices in one ultimate item – company earnings. And company earnings are blowing the doors off. This is largely lead by the current AI and energy boom, but it’s enough to create the optimism that is keeping markets strong.

And one other tidbit: Why aren’t high oil prices slowing down the economy? It is because advanced economies like ours are far less hydrocarbon-dependent than 20 years ago. Since 2006, nominal income in the US has doubled even as oil prices have remained around the same level. But, the risk that prolonged oil prices stay high is an underappreciated risk by the markets, and it’s because most don’t understand the engineering and how challenging it is to turn the oil flow ‘back on’. This is what we call the “Kitchen Faucet” fallacy, the assumption that oil production operates like a simple on/off valve or switch. That is simply not the case...

Lots to consider in this month's Partner Memo. To get on the recipient list so you receive this note real time (and not days later which is when I post to LinkedIn), reach out.

Chapman Private Wealth Group of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | Take comfort in the knowledge that your capital is being managed the way your friends complain they wish theirs was managed. The ultimate compliment is a referral to friends & family.

06/02/2026

We hosted the one and only Brian Belski for a client event on May 27th at Craigleith Ski Club. Getting Brian to Collingwood in Canada took some coordination given his busy schedule, and we were excited to be able to host him. It proved to be a very insightful and fun evening.

Brian is a former colleague of mine and is one of the leading investment strategists on the planet. He is also one of the very few managers that has consistently beat the market over the long term. He is a very frequent contributor to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and BNN, where his market calls are closely followed by investors globally. In his more than 35-year investment career, Brian has held senior strategy and research positions at BMO, Oppenheimer & Company, Merrill Lynch, and Piper Jaffray, where his consistency in messaging, coupled with process-driven conclusions, helped shape stock market and investment views for decades. Brian has recently founded an independent investment firm Humilis Investment Strategies, and we work closely with him on our equity holdings across our portfolios.

05/08/2026

Today we are departing sunny Italy, where I attended an RBCDS conference and I am honoured and humbled to have been a part of it. It has been a brief but wonderful trip, and underscores the focus that RBC Dominion Securities has on the business and the culture, illustrating again why it is a leading wealth management platform. Spending time with the leaders in our business is invaluable, and I am thankful for the friendships formed here. My being here is simply a result of discipline, the support from one of the best teams in the business, and a sole focus on doing the right thing for our clients.

05/05/2026

We will be hosting the legend Brian Belski in Collingwood on May 27th at 5-630pm at Craigleith Ski Club. Getting Brian to Collingwood in Canada took some coordination and leverage given his busy schedule, and we’re excited to be able to host him – this will prove to be a very insightful and fun evening without question.

Brian is a former colleague of mine and is one of the leading investment strategists on the planet. He is a very frequent contributor to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and BNN, where his market calls are closely followed by investors globally. Brian served as the Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets for many years, where he guided portfolio strategy for some of the world’s largest institutional investors and private wealth clients. In his more than 35-year investment career, Brian has held senior strategy and research positions at BMO, Oppenheimer & Company, Merrill Lynch, and Piper Jaffray, where his consistency in messaging, coupled with process-driven conclusions, helped shape stock market and investment views for decades. Brian has most recently founded an independent investment firm Humilis Investment Strategies.

To RSVP please reach out to my team at [email protected]

05/01/2026

As we enter spring (finally), markets continue to confuse many – it is the most humbling machine known to man. March came along and brought the Iran war with it, which caught many investors offside as they worked to manage exposures through that. Then April came and brought with it a rebound to the upside that is almost unparalleled. The US market short back up 10% in 10 days off the lows, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10-day returns! This is why it pays to be patient, not emotional, and manage through the noise even when your gut tells you to sell into weak markets accompanied by scary headlines…

It is important to remain disciplined and focus on the best and ‘real’ information – we get fed so much noise that can affect our judgement. Not good for investing. There is so much noise to signal – remember that economic/financial article authors aren’t paid on the quality of their analysis, or if the idea works out; they are paid based on the number of people who read it. So, nobody is going to write about something ‘boring’ (boring is usually good when it comes to investing). It is all going to be high growth, exciting glam stocks. Topic selection is skewed by economics – the algos feed this as more extreme stories get read more, which triggers other algos to distribute more widely.

This month we dive into why you may be an emotional wreck when it comes to investing, we discuss why markets are behaving surprisingly well, the outlook, risks and opportunities.

See this month's full Partner Memo at https://bit.ly/42GwPrp

Or listen to an abbreviated podcast version of it below https://bit.ly/4cYy7mx

In our Monthly Memos, we discuss recent trends in markets and behavioral finance, breaking down what it all means for your portfolio.

04/28/2026

We hosted part 3 of our Family Office event series in Toronto recently, with this instalment entitled “Investing In an Era of Turbulence: the state of markets today and perspectives on investing through volatility and change”. It was another packed house, with many of Canada’s leading family offices in attendance to hear from an all-star cast. We hosted panels of thought leaders speaking on the state of the markets and economy, and alternative managers who have managed multiple volatile cycles. By examining their contrasting approaches—ranging from high-conviction equity long/short to sophisticated arbitrage trades—we explored how these diverse strategies navigate a challenging environment.

Thank you again to our speakers Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Research at RBC Global Asset Management, Brian D’Costa, Founding Partner & Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at Algonquin, Jamie Wise, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer at Periscope Capital, Peter Hatziioannou, Co-Founder, President at XIB Asset Management, Adam Mitchell, Portfolio Manager at NewGen Asset Management, and Robert Fournier, Managing Director/PM of U.S. Equities at ONEX Corporation.

02/23/2026

Given the headlines out there around this sector (and beyond), Chapman Private Wealth Group of RBC Dominion Securities invites you to a webinar on March 3rd @ 1pm ET entitled "Private credit – Canary in the coal mine or opportunity?" We will be hosting two experts in the field of private credit and will cover topics that investors should be aware of, including:

• Private credit market snapshot: Deal trends, credit quality dispersion, and how macro pressures are separating winners from losers;
• AI's impact on credit: How technology is reshaping software underwriting and increasing differentiation among borrowers;
• Portfolio positioning and outlook: Current allocations, leverage metrics, and where spreads could be headed in 2026;
• Opportunities and risks: Attractive sectors with durable tailwinds.

To receive the webinar link, please RSVP to [email protected]

02/04/2026

Well, January was anything but uneventful - the theme of 2026 so far (and admittedly it’s very early) is that, seemingly every week, investors must consider and grapple with some sort of volatile geopolitical, policy or trade headline. Yet, so far, despite these headlines, markets have remained largely stable (outside of precious metals and crypto). Let’s see if that persists...

Core factors that determine stock prices remain healthy – that is, earnings growth and underlying economic growth. So it is these fundamentals that are acting as a buffer against policy chaos. As long as the fundamentals remain in place, markets will continue to be resilient in the face of policy chaos.

However, it is important that investors do not become complacent and fall into a trap of thinking “nothing matters” and that stocks just always rebound – that feels like the playbook recently, but believe me, it isn’t always this way. Bloomberg found none of the 21 market strategists surveyed at the end of 2025 expected stocks to decline in 2026.

There is a list of concerns that could bubble up to put the markets in check. But, as always, there some significant positives to counter a weakening consumer and labour market for now. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the US (OBBBA) is front-end loaded stimulus for 2026. Oil prices are low. The big tailwind for the U.S. economy is company capital expenditures which are being driven by AI-related data centre spending. We are likely to remain in a “run-hot” economy.

Many respected institutions are reinforcing a central message that investors should temper return expectations moving forward given where we have come from - I do believe there will be value to be found. We have to prepare and position accordingly, and be thoughtful about portfolio allocation and construction, lean into diversification, and be more intentional about sources of return. In this environment, active management/implementation, and risk management are paramount over passive investing and broad market direction.

Read on in this month's Partner Memo.

Podcast link: https://bit.ly/4kAJ7tT

https://bit.ly/4rp3A6S

Chapman Private Wealth Group of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | Take comfort in the knowledge that your capital is being managed the way your friends complain they wish theirs was managed. The ultimate compliment is a referral to friends & family.

01/23/2026

As we continue to grow and keep elite service levels for our clients, we are proud to welcome Benedikt Walkenhorst to the Chapman Wealth Management team!

Benedikt is earning his Bachelor of Honours in Economics at Queens University. During his studies, Benedikt developed a strong interest in financial and economic analysis and is currently working on his thesis. Benedikt is driven by ongoing growth and skill development and takes pride in delivering a high standard of client service. Originally from Germany, Benedikt moved to Canada for his high school education and has since made Canada his home.

01/21/2026

Another notable Canadian private fund hits the skids – this time, it’s a Canadian private credit fund. The ‘gates’ keep coming up across many Canadian funds in the private credit and private real estate world.

Gating is the term used when a fund suddenly denies any withdrawals. Those of you experiencing this with one of these funds certainly don’t need to be reminded of this.

Many of these funds had far too much concentration in their portfolios, had some questionable ‘quality’ underlying some of their exposures, and ‘sold the dream’ of big yields/returns with more underlying liquidity than was the case. All is well when things are good, assets are ‘performing’, and the funds are receiving inflows. But we find out who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.

If you work with an advisor who was surprised by these recent events, and holds these funds by extension, you may want to rethink who your trusted partners are. Professionals who offer ‘expertise’ in alternative strategies and managers need to understand them intimately, and know the profiles and risks of each strategy and manager. This requires decades of experience, and a close network of due diligence professionals around them. The list of advisors who can offer this is very short.

There is often a place for quality exposures in these asset classes, and they are certainly out there – but you have to really know your dance partner.