11/05/2026
The Bank of Canada raised rates. Markets had their best day in months. Tuesday's election ties the two together.
Three things worth knowing this week:
The TSX jumped 2.3% and the Dow 3% on a clear election result and oil falling 7%. Anyone who sold Tuesday night missed Wednesday. That is why we don't trade around elections.
The quarter-point hike is an oil story, not a prices-everywhere story. Inflation is 3.1%, but gas is up 28% from a year ago. Take gas out and we're just over 2%, exactly where the Bank wants it.
Variable still wins. Best five-year fixed is around 4.4%, variable around 3.7%. Rates would have to rise three more times just for variable to catch up to where fixed is today.
This is not 2022. We're starting at 2.5%, not zero. Inflation is 3%, not 8%. The Bank is using the word cautious.
A quarter point is an adjustment, not the start of a climb.
Full breakdown in the video. If you'd like to talk through your own mortgage or portfolio, send us a message.