Ben Halpin - CML Canmore Mortgage Lenders

04/01/2025

I wanted to share my upcoming real estate article in this week's Rocky Mountain Outlook. I think it's a very relevant topic!

Tariffs. A word that we’ve seen more and more in the headlines lately. There are lots of questions that come along with these headlines, and the most important question to many is “how will this affect me”. There’s no way to sugar coat it, tariffs are bad news for many Canadian industries, and they are inflationary. This is not a controversial or ground braking statement, and something many are already aware of.

However, there may be a silver lining to all this tariff talk. While a trade or tariff war would be bad news economically for Canada as a whole, bad economic news is often good news for mortgage rates!

Fixed rates are based on and heavily influenced by the Canada Government Bond yields, namely the Canada 5 year Government Bond yields. Bad economic news (like 20% broad tariffs) will drive bond yields down. It’s not just bad Canadian news that impacts this though. Canadian bond yields often follow in step with the US 10 year treasury note yields, and are heavily influenced by those yields, as for now, our countries and economies are heavily intertwined, although that may not be the case going forward. With tariffs being bad news all around, we have seen bond yields hit lows not seen in 3 years. With this we have seen lower fixed interest rates, and more competition amongst banks and lenders.

While a looming trade war with our country's biggest trading partner is still a grim thought threatening to turn into an ever-increasing reality, at least there may be some good news for current and prospective homeowners. I’m not trying to make light of the tough times that may be ahead for many Canadians, I realize that to many this may offer little solace. I hope for better days and times ahead for all Canadians, and believe with our strong Canadian resolve, we will get through these strange times

06/05/2024

Big news from the Bank of Canada this morning. For the first time in four years, we have a Key interest rate cut! While, it's only a small 25 basis point (.25%) cut, it's welcome news for many Canadians, especially those with variable rate mortgages. This marks a departure from 11 straight months of peak interest rates.

What does this mean for mortgages? On a $300k mortgage with a 25-year amortization, a .25% rate reduction equals $44.72 less in monthly payments. For fixed rates, Canadian 5 year bond yields are at lows not seen since March 2024, which could lead to fixed rate decreases if the lower yield trend holds.

Overall it's a small step, and we are still a long way from significantly lower rates, but it's a step in the right direction.

Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have questions on rates, or anything mortgages!

05/31/2024

Hello Friends!

I received a great note from the Real Estate Council of Alberta that I'd like to share with you about making offers and conditions of offers during Alberta's hot housing market. It's a bit of a read, but worthwhile for anyone whose house hunting in these competitive markets.

Currently, Alberta’s real estate market is extremely competitive, with limited supply of homes for sale, meaning sellers often receive multiple offers. Home buyers may feel they need to tailor their offer to appeal to the home seller and may consider making a condition-free offer to stand out from other buyers. RECA is advising consumers that this home buying strategy has risks.

Most offers to purchase a home are conditional, meaning they have criteria that must be met before the property purchase can be completed. These criteria must be written into the offer to purchase, with an exact explanation of how the condition will be met, and the timeframe for when the condition must be met. If the buyer does not waive conditions by the agreed upon deadline, an offer to purchase becomes void.

A condition can be anything the buyer and seller agree to, as long as it is written in the signed offer to purchase. Typical conditions include conditions for a buyer to:

secure financing
complete a home inspection to their satisfaction
review condominium documents to their satisfaction
finalize the sale of their current property
Conditional offers allow buyers and their licensees to perform due diligence research on a property, such as getting a home inspection and properly reviewing all relevant information, such as the title or condominium documents. Conditional offers also allow buyers to secure financing for the property, typically through a mortgage.

Consumers should be aware that a mortgage pre-approval is not a guarantee they will obtain financing. Mortgage pre-approval is only tentative approval based on the buyer's basic financial information. It is also important to note that at the pre-approval stage, the property is not yet known. Property type, location, or value can impact the financing available.

For any reason, including not securing financing, if a home buyer fails to complete the purchase as stated, they may forfeit their deposit and could face legal action by the seller.

Consumers are urged to discuss any plans to make a condition-free offer with their real estate licensee. Home buyers should also be sure to speak to their mortgage broker about the financing implications of submitting a condition-free offer. RECA licensees must advise their clients about the risks and possible implications of condition-free offers.

For more information on condition-free purchase offers, please visit reca.ca

I hope this information is helpful, please let me know if you have any questions about pre-approvals, mortgages, or any part of the home buying process!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

05/01/2024

Shopping around is important! Did you know, every 0.1 percentage point per $100,000 mortgage translates to roughly $480 of interest savings over five years on a 25-year amortization! Let me save you time and money, by doing the shopping for you!

05/01/2024

Rate update!

Expectations for decreases to the overnight rate have gone from over 1.00% of rate cuts in 2024, to a 50% chance of .50% rate cut. Strong inflation numbers in the US are pushing back rate cut expectations south of the border, and the BOC is following suit.

The latest economic data and US trends are also pushing up goverment of Canada bond yields, which has led to some fixed rate increases over the past 2 weeks. While the expectation is still lower rates in the future, I think mortgage holders and rate watchers should be prepared for higher for longer.

03/05/2024

With the Bank of Canada meeting tomorrow to announce if they will cut, hold or increase the overnight rate, many were hoping for or expecting the first-rate cut of 2024. Based on the latest economic data, top economists and banks are now tampering their expectations of a rate cut tomorrow, and are predicting the BoC holds rates. It seems June is the most probable date we can expect a rate cut, with markets pricing in 90% odds of a 50 bps reduction.

What does this mean for variable rate holders, and anyone considering a variable rate mortgage? Patience is needed. Despite the likelihood of rates holding till June, CIBC still expects 125bps worth of rate cuts by the end of the year. That's a 1.25% reduction for variable rate holders, if forecasts are accurate. Despite economic Data suggesting job growth and a strong labour market, much of that growth is in part-time jobs, with full-time jobs decreasing. This data also doesn't account for newcomers, and some economists see the latest report as "terrible".

My advice for variable rate holders is, if you've held on this long, keep going, relief is on the horizon. With expected cuts in the later half of 2024, I think variable mortgages will start to become a viable option for those with higher risk tolerances. When it comes to mortgage products, there is no one size fits all, and it's about what's right for you and your goals. If you have any questions about anything mortgages, don't hesitate to reach out!

03/05/2024

The federal government is discontinuing the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive. What does this mean for first time home buyers? The honest answer is not much.

The program, which allowed first time home buyers to receive 5%-10% down payment in the form of a shared equity mortgage with the goverment, had some flaws, that made it mostly unusable for most first time home buyers. The program, while well-intentioned, had a maximum purchase price of $505,000, or 4 times the applicant's household income. When rolled out in 2019, this cap made more sense, but quickly became outdated as home prices increased. Even an increase to max purchase prices in the GTA/GTV was not enough to get the utilization expected. In total, less than 16,000 applications were submitted, despite the goal of assisting 100,000 first time home buyers.

With the maximum purchase cap, this program was not applicable in many areas, and limited its utilization. Another draw back was the repayment obligation, which was based on the home's value at the time of repayment. With home price increases, this could leave homeowners who used the program owing a large amount to the goverment when selling their home, or becoming mortgage free. Although measures were taken to cap the maximum repayable amount, this made the incentive less appealing to some.

CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation) has noted that the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) rolled out in 2023 is a better tool to help first time home buyers. While I'm a fan of the FHSA, I know how difficult it can be to enter the market as a first time home buyer, and think the more tools available the better. Hopefully, the goverment can use the nearly $1 billion of unused funds that were earmarked for this program to assist first time home buyers in a more impactful way.

While the FTHBI is no longer available, the First Time Home Buyers Program, and First Home Savings Account are still 2 great tools that can be used to help save up a down payment for first time home buyers. To learn more about these programs, please feel free to reach out to me.

01/17/2024

Did you spend big over the holidays and rack up some credit card debt? Or is your New Year's goal to improve your credit score? Perhaps you have good credit and want to keep it that way! What ever your situation is, here's 5 tips from Equifax to help keep your credit score on the up:

1) Pay on time: One of the best things you can do to improve your credit scores is to pay your minimum payments on time, every time. You can see late payments in the accounts section of myEquifax.

2) Keep your credit utilization rate low: It's typically best to use 30 percent or less of the credit available to you on your revolving credit accounts, such as credit cards. You can see your credit utilization rate for creditors who report into Equifax on your myEquifax dashboard.

3) Limit applying for new accounts: Applying for new credit accounts will usually lead to a hard inquiry on your credit report. Sometimes these can negatively affect your credit scores for a short period of time. You can see the inquiries from creditors who check your Equifax credit report in the inquiries section of myEquifax.

4) Keep old accounts open: One of the factors in calculating credit scores is “average age of accounts,” so keeping paid-off accounts open can help maintain the length of your credit history, and help improve your credit scores.

5) Review your credit reports regularly: It’s important to check your credit reports regularly for any unpaid balances or past-due accounts, which can negatively impact your credit scores. You can also check for inaccuracies or signs of identity theft, such as credit accounts you didn’t apply for or a phone number that doesn’t belong to you.

As a certified Equifax credit professional, I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have about how credit works, how you can improve your credit scores, and the role your credit score plays in obtaining a mortgage. Please feel free to reach out at any time!

12/08/2023

Good News this week for both variable rate holders, and those coming up for renewal, or looking to make a purchase.

Yesterday, at the Bank of Canada's rate announcement, they held the overnight rate. That means no increase for variable rate holders. While the sentiment from the BoC is they are not afraid to increase rates if needed, many banks and economists are predicting rate cuts for early to mid 2024. Inflation numbers are very near target, and with a weakening economy, rate cuts on the horizon makes sense.

Speaking of the weakening economy, 5 year Canadian Bond Yields have hit their lowest level in 6 months! While this might not be great news for the economy or bond traders, it is good news for those with upcoming mortgage renewals. We are seeing 5 year fixed rates in the low 5% range, with some promo offers below 5%!

Please feel free to reach out if you have questions about an upcoming renewal, purchase, or anything else mortgage related.

Halpin is here to help!

12/01/2023

A light read for your Friday afternoon!

This article does note a modest decrease of .5% in Canmore. However, this is based on the median home price. From my insight into the market, this decrease seems to be in the higher priced single family detached homes, while Condo's and town houses in the sub $1MM price range seem to be seeing continued price growth.

A new report from Royal LePage predicts the cost of homes near ski hills will not cool in 2024, but instead heat up across in many regions. Here's where.

11/20/2023

"Higher for Longer" seems in contradiction of some of my post from last week regarding mortgage rates. This headline is in regard to the overnight rate set by the Bank of Canada, which influences the prime lending rate, and variable rate mortgages. Despite positive out looks and predictions on sooner than expected decreases to the overnight rate, the BOC is issuing some caution, that rates could remain higher for longer. I do think we are at the peak for interest rates. Bond yields seem to share this sentiment, and we have seen a decrease in fixed rates as a result. However, even with these decreases, rates are still over 5%, and it's very likely we see these elevated rates persist for a while longer. Despite signs of a weakening economy, reduced inflation, and the Fed in the US potentially lowering rates in early 24, the BOC is not as bullish that they will be reducing rates as soon.

While it may take longer than some experts anticipate for the BOC to start cutting the overnight rate, I do think we are over the hump, and it's only a matter of time before we see the overnight rate, and subsequently prime rates decrease. This will be a welcome relief to variable rate holders.

Although rate decrease are on the horizon, many Canadians still face the prospect of increased mortgage costs at renewal. While I do expect to see rates to continue to decrease, this is going to happen slowly. The best thing you can do is be prepared for an increase in rate, so you can budget or make a plan to manage payment increases. Please feel free to reach out if you have a question about your upcoming renewal, I'd be happy to help you plan for your next renewal. It's never too early to be prepared!

Canadians must prepare themselves for the possibility that interest rates remain "higher for longer," the Bank of Canada's Senior Deputy Governor said today.