Tips4Mortgages

05/20/2026

Canadian CPI Inflation Rises to 2.8% As Core Inflation Measures Decline." from Chief Economist

Canadian Inflation Rose to 2.8% in April as Core Inflation Approached 2% Target. Statistics Canada released the April CPI data this morning, showing a smaller-than-expected rise in headline inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.8% y/y in April, up from 2.4% in March. Higher energy pr...

05/08/2026

"Weakest Labour Market Report Since January 2021." from Chief Economist

Weak Jobs Report in April drives Unemployment Rate Up to 6.9% Employment in Canada edged down by 17,700 in April, following a 14,000 gain in the prior month, missing the consensus forecast for a 15,000 increase. On a year-over-year basis, employment in April was up by 67,000 (+0.3%), but recorded a....

04/29/2026

"Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady For the Fourth Consecutive Meeting"
from Chief Economist

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering at 2.4% and core inf...

04/22/2026

"Canadian Inflation Jumps to 2.4% Y/Y As War Causes Oil Price Shock." from Chief Economist

Canadian Inflation Surges to 2.4% Y/Y on Oil Price Shock The headline inflation rate in Canada surged as expected with the War in Iran and the resulting oil price shock. The inflation rate hit 2.4%, up from 1.8% in February, tying for the highest in a year but a bit below market expectations of 2.5%...

03/16/2026

"Canada’s Annual Inflation Rate Slowed to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January" from Chief Economist

Canadian Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 1.8% in February. Canada’s inflation rate slowed by more than expected last month, before the oil shock of the Iran war. The yearly inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Monday. Justin Trudeau intr...

02/27/2026

"Canada’s Economy Declined by 0.6% in Q4, Taking Overall Real GDP Growth to 1.7% in 2025." from Chief Economist

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflec...

02/17/2026

"Canadian inflation fell a tick to 2.3% in January" from Chief Economist

CPI Inflation in Canada Fell A Tick to 2.3% Y/Y in January on Gasoline Price Decline The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, w...

10/29/2025

"Bank of Canada Cuts Overnight Rate by 25 bps to 2.25%."
from Chief Economist

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.25% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% as was widely expected. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. The economy w...

10/21/2025

"Canadian CPI Inflation rose to 2.4% in September, up from 1.9% in August" from Chief Economist

Canadian Inflation Stronger Than Expected The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9% increase in August. The acceleration in headline inflation from 1.9% in August was also larger than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, whi...

09/17/2025

This morning we saw the Bank of Canada reduce the rate by 25 BPS putting their overnight rate at 2.5% as of September 17 - this means bank prime rate will go from 4.95% to 4.7%. They gave three main reasons: the softening labour market, less upward pressure on underlying inflation, and less risk of future inflation.

The two key points for you to takeaway are:
The BoC is currently looking at a shorter time frame than usual due mostly to the ongoing tariff situation.
The BoC is committed to price stability for Canadians
Trump is still hounding Canada. He’s about to renegotiate CUSMA, he’s obsessed with reducing US taxes (maybe by using tariff income?), and he wants Canada to be part of the US to exploit Canadian resources
We have also seen fixed rates drop over the past week or so and if things get ugly enough we will see fixed rates come down further just like variable rates
Canada is experiencing slower population growth, subsequent reduced economic growth and inflation, and potentially further rate drops in 2025
We also saw the US drop rates today as well. Looks like more rate drops to come this year as many are already predicting another cut at the end of next month.

Have a great day and reach out any time if you have any questions.