06/08/2026
Canada recently entered what’s called a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
But here’s what most headlines aren’t telling you:
A recession is a backward-looking measurement. It tells us what already happened, not necessarily what’s coming next.
In fact, this recession looks very different from what many Canadians expected.
Historically, recessions often lead to:
• Significant home price declines
• Aggressive interest rate cuts
• Financial stress in the banking system
But today:
• Home prices have softened, but haven’t crashed nationally
• Fixed mortgage rates remain elevated
• Canada’s major banks remain profitable
• Housing supply continues to be constrained in many markets
The bigger concern isn’t the recession itself.
It’s the growing pressure on Canadian households:
➡️ Mortgage renewals at higher rates
➡️ Higher debt servicing costs
➡️ Slower wage growth than many expected
➡️ Rising living expenses
That’s why many Canadians feel like they’re falling behind even though unemployment remains relatively low and the economy isn’t collapsing.
My prediction?
The next 12 months won’t be defined by a housing crash or a rate collapse.
They’ll be defined by affordability.
Affordability will determine:
• How many people buy
• How many people sell
• How much housing activity we see
• And ultimately where home prices go from here
Curious what you’re seeing firsthand.
Do you feel like Canada is in a recession?
Or does it feel more like a prolonged affordability crisis?
