Krystyna Seibicz Mortgages

08/20/2026

04/10/2024

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate. No change at this point in time. They will meet again June 5th.

02/14/2024

Happy Valentines Day ! ❤️

02/06/2024

“In January, the Canadian bond market took quite a beating as interest rates rose roughly 30 basis points from their recent lows. The December housing data revealed a surge in sales, while inflation data showed just how difficult it may be to return to the 2% inflation target.

Core inflation remains above 3.5% despite flat economic activity in the fourth quarter.
 
While overall growth declined by 1.1% in Q3, we expect the final quarter of 2023 and Q1 of this year to post roughly zero growth. Nevertheless, labour markets remain relatively strong, and wage rates rise well above 5% year-over-year.
 
Since mid-year, the Bank of Canada has focused on the supply/demand balance, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. Last week’s Business Outlook Survey showed little to no improvement in those metrics, with corporate pricing behaviour somewhat encouraging on the path to normalization but still not there.
 
There is a way to go before we see sub-3% inflation sustainably. Until then, the bank will hold the overnight policy rate at 5%. The Bank of Canada made its first announcement of the year on January 24th, resulting in no change in the overnight rate for the fourth consecutive meeting.
 
While markets are anxiously looking forward to a series of interest rate cuts, it is too early for the Bank of Canada to take a more dovish tone. This week, they will issue their full economic forecast in the Monetary Policy Report.
 
Inflation remains critical to the outlook. The latest CPI report was not encouraging. Progress has been made in bringing inflation down, but plenty of work remains to get back to 2%. Rate cuts are coming this year, but the Bank of Canada will patiently await a further drop in inflation and inflation expectations. In the meantime, a continued rebound in housing markets will anticipate the future easing in mortgage rates.“

-Dr. Sherry Cooper

01/24/2024

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitive tightening:

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%.

01/15/2024

Happy Mindset Monday !

I hope you all have an amazing week ❤️

01/10/2024

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01/02/2024

“With the release of the November inflation data, some were disappointed that inflation remained at 3.4% year-over-year—the same as in October.

However, without the base effects of year-ago energy price declines, inflation would have been less than 3%.

 
December’s inflation data will be similarly skewed higher. Still, there is ample reason to suggest that interest rates have peaked, and the Bank of Canada will begin to ease monetary policy next year.

The economy has slowed significantly, and the unemployment rate is rising. Consumer spending will continue to slow as monthly mortgage payments rise at renewal. Excess demand is now gone, and housing markets have slowed considerably. Although the road to 2% inflation will be bumpy, the central bank now believes that the overnight policy rate is high enough to return inflation to its target.

Core inflation has been sticky, and wages continue to rise, playing catch-up to past inflation, but events are trending in the right direction. While not even the Governing Council knows when they will begin to cut interest rates or how quickly the process will proceed, policymakers and regulators are worried about the dampening effects of significant increases in monthly mortgage payments for the 60% of loans that will be renewed or refinanced in the next three years.

Just as overstaying their aggressive easing of monetary policy caused inflation, on the flip side, keeping monetary policy this tight for too long could damage the livelihoods of many Canadians, triggering potential financial instability and significant layoffs. These concerns have precipitated a dramatic decline in market-driven interest rates worldwide.

There are many reasons to believe the Bank of Canada will begin to ease monetary policy in 2024. Bond and money markets are building in this expectation.”