04/16/2025
Here’s the scoop from our Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper (a.k.a. the economic crystal ball):
Things were looking up in the housing market. Spring was in the air, the for-sale signs were getting dusted off, and buyers were ready to re-enter the ring. Then—bam!—tariff drama entered the chat.
Since then, consumer and business confidence has taken a nosedive. Tariffs are like that dinner guest who shows up uninvited and eats all the appetizers—first they push prices up, and then they quietly ruin the whole vibe. The second-round effects? Slower growth, job cuts, and households clutching their wallets a little tighter.
Thankfully, the Bank of Canada seems ready to put on the cape and play superhero, likely slashing interest rates again this year. That’s good news for us north of the border, where our economy is extra sensitive to interest rates (yes, even more than the U.S.).
Today, traders are flipping a coin on whether we’ll get another 25 bps cut. Inflation did fall more than expected in March, and with the carbon tax now off the books, next month’s data might look even better. So while the Bank might sit this one out, we’re still forecasting three more rate cuts this year—down a full 300 bps from the peak.
