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Forex Kings & Queens, Gaborone (2026)

30/08/2022

EUR/GBP DAILY OUTLOOK
30 August 2022, 19:37
Chart - Courtesy Trading View

Technical Analysis:

- EUR/GBP was trading 0.75% higher on the day at 0.8599 at around 16:25 GMT

- Three White Soldiers pattern on the daily charts raises scope for further upside in the pair

- Price action has broken past cloud top,

- Momentum is bullish, stochs and RSI are sharply higher, RSI is well above the 50 mark

- GMMA indicator shows minor trend is bullish, while major trend is turning bullish

Support levels:

S1: 0.8568 (110-week EMA)

S2: 0.8497 (5-DMA)

Resistance levels:

R1: 0.8632 (Upper BB)

R2: 0.8699 (200-week MA)

Summary: EUR/GBP was trading with a bullish bias. Close above the daily cloud will boost further upside in the pair.

30/08/2022

Patience and consistency are the key❤

28/08/2022

AUD/USD: BEARS KICKING OFF THE WEEK BELOW 0.6900, EYES ON AUSTRALIAN DATA
29 August 2022, 00:29
AUD/USD bears keep their defensive mode intact below 0.6900.
USD holds the upper hand amid a risk-off mood, hawkish Powell.
The aussie eyes Retail Sales data in the critical US NFP week ahead.
AUD/USD is trading below 0.7000, starting a brand new week on the back foot, as US dollar bulls keep the upper hand following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric during his appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Powell, in his prepared remarks on day 2 of the annual Fed event, said that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for 'some time, adding that the Decision on the September rate hike will depend on the totality of data since July meeting.”

The US dollar staged a sharp V-shaped recovery on his comments, despite the retracement in the Treasury yields across the curve. The negative shift in the market’s perception of risk sentiment helped the uptick in the safe-haven greenback, as major Wall Street indices tumbled roughly 3.50% after Powell poured cold water on the idea of a Fed pivot that could jeopardize its war against inflation.

Heading into a new week, risk-off flows seem to extend into the Asian trading this Monday, reflective of the submissive tone in the higher-yielding aussie. Bulls also remain at bay, awaiting the Australian Retail Sales data for July due for release at 0130 GMT. The country’s consumer spending is seen rising by 0.3% in the reporting period vs. 0.2% booked previously.

Australian retail sales volumes rose 1.4% in the June quarter of 2022, hitting a new record level, for the third consecutive quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed about a month ago.

The pair will also take cues from the broader market sentiment and the speech from Fed official Lael Brainard in the US Nonfarm Payrolls week ahead. China’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be also closely eyed for fresh hints on the health of Australia’s biggest trading partner, China.

12/08/2022

USD/CHF PRICE ANALYSIS: RECOVERS BUT STILLS UNDER THE 200-DMA
12 August 2022, 21:41
The USD/CHF is set to finish the week with losses of 2.05%.
From a daily chart perspective, the major is downwards, as sellers target March’s 31 low below 0.9200.
Despite a positive divergence in the hourly chart, the USD/CHF pierced the 200-DMA, but sellers piling at the 200-DMA dragged the pair lower.
The USD/CHF trims Thursday’s losses yet remains below the 200-day EMA, after hitting a daily high at 0.9450, but retraced towards the current price level, but still above the opening price. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9418, up by 0.13%.

Traders’ sentiment is upbeat, with US equities rallying sharply. The greenback recovers some ground, as shown by the US Dollar Index up 0.54%, at 105.662, after an improvement in US consumer sentiment eases the US Federal Reserve pressures.

USDCHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook
From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF daily chart illustrates the pair as downward biased, with sellers remaining in control, despite buyers lifting the major towards its daily high. Nevertheless, backed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.91, well below the 50 midlines, a dip towards the March 31 swing low at 0.9194 is on the cards.

In the one-hour scale, the USD/CHF portrays a positive divergence with price action aiming lower, while the RSI records successive series of higher lows. Nevertheless, as the RSI already crossed its 50-midline, upwards and lately downwards, the uptrend is in question, but unless sellers break below the August 11 low at 0.9370, the major might remain range-bound.

The USD/CHF first resistance will be the R1 daily pivot at 0.9447. Break above could pave the way towards 0.9500. On the flip side, if the pair breaks below 0.9400, it could dip towards 0.9370.

USD/CHF Hourly chart

USDCHF Key Technical Levels

01/07/2022

GBP/USD: BEARS ATTACK 1.2100 WITH EYES ON YEARLY LOW, UK/US PMI
1 July 2022, 07:55
GBP/USD reverses the previous day’s bounce off two-week low.
UK government braces for VAT relief but fails to impress GBP bulls amid economic woes.
Doubts over ‘partygate’ investigation take rounds, Irish deputy PM accuses No10 over NIP.
Final readings of UK PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June will be important for fresh impulse.
GBP/USD returns to the bear’s radar, after a one-day absence, as Brexit, politics and economic pessimism weigh on the Cable pair during early Friday morning in Europe.

Starting with the presently key issue, namely the economic slowdown fears, the United Kingdom reported no change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2021 during the final announcements published the previous day. That said, the UK GDP matched initial forecasts of 0.8% QoQ and 8.7% YoY. It’s worth noting that the fears of UK recession growth stronger as a jump in inflation joins Brexit woes, not to forget pessimism surrounding the Russia-Ukraine crisis and China’s covid resurgence.

To battle the economic pessimism, the UK government plans to ease the Value Added Tax (VAT). Prime Minister Boris Johnson's chief of staff Steve Barclay suggested reducing the 20% headline rate of the tax, The Times said, adding a temporary cut would reduce the tax bill for millions, per Reuters.

Elsewhere, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss defended the privileges committee inquiry into PM Johnson’s ‘partygate’ scandal as Tory backbenchers term it a 'kangaroo court'.

On the Brexit front, Irish deputy PM Leo Varadkar accused Number 10 of "siding" with unionists in seeking to scrap parts of the deal agreed in 2019, per the BBC. Additionally, The Guardian conveys a 14% fall in the UK exports to the European Union (EU) in 2021, mainly due to Brexit.

Alternatively, the risk-off mood joins cautious sentiment ahead of the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, expected at 55.0 versus 56.1 prior, also propelling the US dollar’s demand. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed from a 12-day high to snap a two-day uptrend by closing Thursday’s trading around 104.75, near 104.80 by the press time.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.80% to mark a five-day downtrend whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields reverse early Asian session rebound to 2.967%, refreshing the three-week low.

Moving on, the final reading of the UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June precedes the UK ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month to direct intraday moves. However, major attention will be given to the chatters surrounding recession, Brexit and politics for clear directions.

Technical analysis
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June 14-16 upside, near 1.2110, restricts immediate GBP/USD downside before directing the bears to the yearly low of 1.1933. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until the quote stays below the aforementioned resistance line of around 1.2180. Even if the GBP/USD pair rises past 1.2180, it needs to cross the 200-HMA hurdle surrounding 1.2235 to recall the buyers.

30/06/2022

USD/MXN PRICE ANALYSIS: A CONSOLIDATION ABOVE 20.20 OPENS DOOR TO 20.45
30 June 2022, 19:16
USD/MXN turns negative, after hitting weekly highs near 20.30.
A recovery in market sentiment helped the Mexican peso during the American session.
A consolidation above 20.20 is likely to trigger more gains.
Emerging market currencies recovered ground during the American session from multi-day lows. They remain under pressure affected by the sharp decline in global stocks. The negative growth outlook and monetary tightening from the Fed weigh on currencies like the Mexican peso.

The USD/MXN peaked on Thursday at 20.26, the highest level in a week. Later as stocks recovered, pulled back erasing gains. Despite moving off highs, the outlook is biased to the upside. At the first attempt, the dollar was rejected from above 20.20. If it posts a daily close above it could rise further to the next resistance at 20.45. The 20.20 area is reinforced by the 100-day Simple Moving Average.

While under 20.20, some consolidation between 20.20 and 20.00 seems likely before the next directional move. A decline back to 20.00 should be seen as a normal correction after the rally from 19.80 to 20.20.

A decline under 20.00 and below the 20-day SMA should strengthen the Mexican peso, favoring an extension toward the weekly low at 19.81. The key support below is the 19.70 area that if reached, could likely trigger a rebound.

USD/MXN daily chart
USD/MXN

30/06/2022

AUD/USD RECLAIMS 0.6900 POST LONDON FIX AS US CONSUMER SPENDING DROPS
30 June 2022, 21:01
The AUD/USD grinds higher despite a dampened market mood on a weaker greenback.
Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation eases, but also consumer spending takes a hit, could the US economy support higher rates?
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Seesawing around 0.6850-0.6950 as the pair consolidates in that area.
AUD/USD stages a recovery after plunging to fresh two-week lows around 0.6850s, reclaiming the 0.6900 figure, nearly gaining 0.60% on Thursday, after US inflation shows some signs of topping. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6910 during the North American session.

A risk-off mood struck the financial markets on the last day of the first half of 2022. US equities extend their losses, and the greenback is falling, as shown by the US Dollar Index slumping 0.39%. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield nosedives below the 3% threshold as recession fears increase, as illustrated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for the Q2 plunges towards -1.0%.

US inflation shows signs of easing; consumer spending falls
The US calendar reported inflation figures, which showed that it is slowing down. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May climbed by 6.3% YoY, less than foreseen, while core PCE, the Fed’s favorite reading for inflation, heightened by 4.7% YoY, lower than estimated, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Albeit a good sign for the US economy, the same report highlighted that American consumers spent less in May, for the first time in 2022, and previous numbers were downward revised, indicating that the economy is not as strong as thought.

At the same time, the US Department of Labour released the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on June 25, which topped above the 228K expected, and rose by 231K.

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell crossed wires. He said policymakers’ job is to find price stability, even during the new forces of inflation, while adding that the US economy is solid and can withstand monetary policy adjustments.

Australia’s economic docket will feature the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June. Across the pond, the US docket will reveal S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs alongside the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD remains in a downtrend, though slightly consolidating n the 0.6850-0.6950 range. Further confirmation of the previously-mentioned is the location and slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), albeit, at negative readings, it is almost horizontal. Nevertheless, the major’s price action on Thursday is rising sharply, and a break above the June 30 high at 0.6920 might open the door for further gains, but solid resistance near 0.7000 will be challenging to overcome. Contrarily, a continuation to the downside is in play, though it would accelerate once sellers reclaim 0.6850, which will send the pair tumbling towards the YTD low near 0.6828, followed by 0.6800.

30/06/2022

GBP/USD SEEN AROUND 1.1700 IN MID-2023 – WELLS FARGO
30 June 2022, 21:12
According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the mix of measured monetary tightening and rapid inflation, combined with the slowdown in UK economy, provides an underwhelming backdrop for the pound. They revised their forecast for the GBP/USD lower and now see it around 1.1700 in mid-2023.

Key Quotes:
“We expect the U.K. central bank to begin lowering its policy interest rate during the second half of 2023, by a cumulative 50 bps to 1.50% by the end of next year.”

“Overall, this mix of gradual monetary tightening and rapid inflation (meaning that real U.K. policy interest rates will remain substantially in negative territory), combined with a U.K. economic downturn, provides an underwhelming backdrop for the U.K. currency. We have revised our forecast for the pound lower, and now see a trough in the GBP/USD exchange rate around $1.1700 in mid-2023.”

“Even as the U.S. economy falls into its own recession and the Fed begins to lower interest rates by late next year, we believe that headwinds facing the U.K. economy will mean only a modest rebound for the pound, and we target a GBP/USD exchange rate of $1.1900 by the end of 2023.”

29/06/2022

GBP/USD FLIRTS WITH 1.2100, LOWEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS POST-FED’S POWELL AND BOE’S BAILEY

29/06/2022

GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD ERASES GAINS, BACK UNDER PRESSURE BELOW $1820
29 June 2022, 18:46
Gold reversed from two-day highs and is back near weekly lows.
US dollar rises across the board following comments from Portugal.
Gold prices dropped sharply during the American session, erasing daily gains. XAU/USD peaked at $1833, the highest level in two days and then turned lower, falling to $1814, slightly above the daily low of $1811.

The reversal took place amid a rally of the US dollar. The DXY jumped toward 105.00, the highest level in a week. It is rising for the second day in a row as market concerns remain in place.

US yields eased on Wednesday even as central bankers offered a hawkish tone from Portugal where the European Central Bank is having its annual meeting. Fed Chair Powell warned about the risk to the economy from higher interest rates; however made it clear the biggest risk is losing price stability. ECB President Lagarde said they will consider the “anti-fragmentation” tool at the July meeting.

Short-term outlook
The bounce from $1811 weakened before reaching at $1835, a short-term downtrend line. A break above the mentioned level should open the doors to more gains, targeting initially $1845 and then levels above $1850.

While under $1835 the outlook is biased to the downside, with rising risks of more losses below the 20-Simple Moving Average in four-hour charts (currently at $1825).

XAU/USD is testing $1815 and below attention would turn to $1811 (June 29 low) and then to $1804 (June 14 low), the last defense of $1800.

Techincal levels

29/06/2022

RUSSIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BELOW FORECASTS (4.5%) IN MAY: ACTUAL (3.9%)

29/06/2022

AUD/USD bears are moving in as the US dollar strengthens in risk-off.
DXY has rallied to beyond 105 the figure, dragging commodity currencies lower.
At 0.6875, AUD/USD is lower on the day by some 0.4% as the US dollar springs back to life, rallying through the 105 figure as measured against a basket of currencies via the DXY index. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six counterparts, ticked up 0.51% to 105.08. The two-decade high of 105.79 was struck on June 15. Quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios is also feeding into higher volatility in financial markets.

The greenback has edged higher on Wednesday as the euro gave back earlier gains despite European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde saying the era of ultra-low inflation that preceded the pandemic is unlikely to return. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade, following its global peers, to try to cool accelerating inflation, though economists are divided on the magnitude of any hike.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said there was a risk that interest rate increases will slow the economy too much, but persistent inflation was the bigger worry. Additionally, US stocks fell on Wednesday as traders' concern over the impact of hefty rate increases on the US economy bites. US data showed that growth contracted in the first quarter amid a record trade deficit. This is on the heels of a report from Tuesday that showed consumer confidence hit a 16-month low.

Eyes on the RBA
Meanwhile, the Aussie had otherwise found some support on Wednesday as upbeat domestic data provided a temporary distraction from worries about a global recession. reuters reported that Australian Retail Sales surprised with a solid increase of 0.9% in May handily topping forecasts of a 0.4% gain. The news agency reported that Sales were up a sizable 10.4% on May last year, though some of that is due to higher prices rather than volumes.

The data has encouraged demand for the Aussie due to the expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have more confidence that consumers can handle higher interest rates as it prepares for another likely hike at its July policy meeting next week. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has previously suggested that drastic tightening would seriously damage the economy. Rates are seen up around 3.25% by the end of the year and near 4% in 2023 and investors are odds-on for another rise of 50 basis points to 1.35%, and for a similar move in August.

Net AUD short positions fell for a third consecutive week following the hawkish comments from RBA Governor Lowe and more optimism regarding the outlook for China’s economy could bring further support in the next set of data. In this regard, we saw the Aussie rally when China slashed the quarantine time for inbound travellers by half on Tuesday. Higher commodity prices have also had a positive impact on Australia’s terms of trade.

''We expect AUD/USD to hold close to current levels on a 1-month view and rise moderately to the 0.73 area by year-end,'' analysts at Rabobank said.

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