14/06/2023
Wednesday's economic calendar will open with New Zealand's Current Account, but the report is not expected to generate much interest. Traders' eyes will turn to UK GDP for April, which is forecast to have risen to 0.2%. Industrial Production, however, is estimated to have slowed to -0.2% in the month compared to 0.7% from March. The UK's Trade Balance deficit is expected to remain largely unchanged at -£16.5bn in April. Before the Fed announces its decision on monetary policy, we will be watching the May producer inflation release from the US. PPI is forecast to have slowed to -0.1%, while Core Producer Prices were unchanged at 0.2%. Later in the evening, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a hawkish skip, but if Tuesday's consumer inflation proves too hot, the Fed may choose to raise interest rates. Such a decision could be a "last call" and we should finally start to see some disagreements between committee members. The US economy was resilient for most of the half-year, but signs are emerging that it is beginning to weaken. If policymakers decide to hold off on another interest rate hike, there is a chance that this "skip" will turn out to be just a pause. Markets are currently pricing in a 25% chance of a rate hike, rising to 80% for the July meeting. In our view, the Fed can afford to pause rate hikes now.