08/06/2026
Bangladesh's latest macroeconomic indicators present a mixed but somewhat more cautious picture this week, with improving reserve buffers and strong remittance inflows offset by slowing fiscal momentum and tightening credit conditions. Gross foreign exchange reserves rose by 0.8% to USD 30.13 billion from USD 29.89 billion last week, providing a modest improvement in the country's external buffer. The Bangladeshi Taka held steady at 122.75 for yet another consecutive week, reflecting continued exchange-rate stability. The call money rate eased slightly to 9.93% from 9.95%, signalling a marginal relaxation in short-term interbank liquidity.
The external sector offered encouraging signals. Remittance inflows surged 15.49% year-on-year to USD 3.43 billion in May, a significant acceleration from the prior month and a strong endorsement of household income support and foreign exchange resilience. Exports stood at USD 3.12 billion in March, down 18.54% year-on-year, continuing to reflect subdued global demand and persistent competitiveness challenges. Imports held at USD 5.38 billion, broadly flat compared to the previous reading and down 3.41% year-on-year, suggesting contained import demand. The current account deficit narrowed considerably to USD -0.396 billion during July–March FY26, compared to -0.878 billion in the corresponding period of FY25, pointing to a meaningful improvement in the external balance position.
Investment indicators remained in contraction but continued to moderate. Capital machinery import growth stood at -3.07% during July–March FY26, a substantial improvement from the -26.02% recorded a year earlier, suggesting the worst of the investment downturn may be behind Bangladesh even as a genuine recovery has yet to materialise.
Inflationary pressures intensified, with CPI rising to 9.42% in May from 9.04% in April, reversing recent easing and placing renewed strain on household purchasing power. On the fiscal side, tax revenue growth decelerated sharply to 6.71% in April FY26, compared to 27.76% a year earlier, marking a notable reversal from last month's strong performance and raising questions about the sustainability of recent fiscal momentum.
Monetary conditions showed divergent trends. M2 growth accelerated further to 11.45% in April FY26, up from 7.76% a year earlier, reflecting ample system-wide liquidity. However, private sector credit growth continued its downward trajectory, slowing to 4.75% compared to 7.50% in the same period of FY25, underscoring persistent caution among businesses in committing to new borrowing and investment. GDP growth remained at 3.49% for FY2025, while classified loans rose to 32.26% of total outstanding loans as of March 2026, up from the prior December's 30.60%, a reminder that underlying asset quality risks in the banking sector remain elevated under Bangladesh Bank's oversight.
