RdY Investments

21/08/2026

Bitcoin surpasses $76,000 📈

20/08/2026

Gold is testing the $4,450 level this morning, down 1.51% to around $4,454.70, while silver is showing strength, up 4.87% near $66.67. The pullback comes after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data trimmed some of the steam from Wednesday's Treasury-led rally .

The numbers tell the story:

1️⃣ Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, below the 210,000 forecast
2️⃣ Continuing claims rose to 1.799 million
3️⃣ Philly Fed manufacturing index surged to 47.4 in August, well above the 24.1 estimate and reinforcing the Empire State survey's message that regional factory activity isn't rolling over

This firmer data is adding resistance to the lower-yield trade that pushed gold above $4,500 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Fed minutes revealed several officials were prepared to raise rates if inflation doesn't cool. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.7% .

Traders are now looking ahead to Friday's flash PMI readings at 9:45 a.m. ET for the next directional cue .

Reference: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-20/gold-approaches-session-low-4450oz-after-us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-206k

20/08/2026

Gold surges over 3% as US Treasury announcement hurts yields, dollar

Click the link in the comments below.

19/08/2026

Bitcoin's price just spiked more than 7%, hitting its highest point since June 2. This sudden rally was fueled by the liquidation of approximately $1.2 billion in short positions within a single hour.

18/08/2026

Oil Market Update: Tensions and Technicals Point Higher

Crude oil markets are showing renewed strength, driven by a potent mix of geopolitical tension and supportive technical patterns.

As of early Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading steadily near $84.00, with Brent crude holding above $88.00 .

The Geopolitical Driver: US-Iran Standoff
The primary catalyst is the escalating deadlock between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump has stated he is not interested in extending the recent truce agreement, insisting the US has leverage via a naval blockade of Iranian ports .
An Iranian official has warned that the country is prepared for a more offensive policy if diplomacy fails, keeping tensions high around the Strait of Hormuz . This critical waterway remains a flashpoint, with vessel traffic far below pre-conflict levels, supporting the risk of supply disruptions .

Technical Outlook: A Bullish Bias
Technically, WTI is displaying a bullish short-term outlook. Key points to watch include :

Support: The immediate support level is near the 20-day SMA at $81.60-$81.70. A break below this could expose the $73 level.

Resistance: The initial upside resistance is at the 100-day SMA near $86.20. A breakout above this level could confirm further strength.

Target: A bullish flag pattern on the daily chart provides a broader technical target of $95.50, though some profit-taking is expected around the $86.14 - $86.59 area .

The current technical picture suggests a "buy on dips" strategy, with the path of least resistance pointing higher .

Market Dynamics & Risks
The tight supply narrative is supported by a recent larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories . Furthermore, analysts at TD Securities highlight the ongoing risk of a sharp short-covering rally, as the underlying fundamentals remain supportive of supply deficits and inventory drawdowns . Any renewed risk aversion or supply concern could quickly translate into upside pressure for oil prices.

15/08/2026

The Trinity of Market Structure: Breaking Down the "Short M," "W," & "Trap Wedge" 📉📈

It’s not just random lines; it’s a masterclass in how institutions manipulate retail traders using liquidity and breaks of structure.

Here is the play-by-play of what is happening in this single frame:

1. The Foundation: Liquidity & Structure

Before we look at the patterns, we need to understand the "SMC" (Smart Money Concepts) labels on the chart.

BOS (Break of Structure): This is the key indicator that the trend is changing. In this sequence, we see a BOS to the downside (the market broke the previous low), signaling a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.

BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): These are the stops sitting above the recent highs. Institutions hunt these levels to get filled on their sell orders.

OB (Order Block): These are the "imbalances" or large pending orders left by banks/institutions. They act as magnets or areas of strong reaction (Support/Resistance).

2. The "Short M" Pattern (The Fakeout)

The chart starts with a move up to grab BSL (taking out the high). This is the classic "Stop Hunt."

The Trap: Price sweeps the highs, triggering retail breakout buys, only to reverse sharply.

The "M" shape forms as price rallies, rejects the high, and drops below the "neckline" of the M. This creates a BOS (Break of Structure) to the downside, confirming the reversal.

3. The "W Pattern" (The Retest)

After the drop, price forms a "W" (Double Bottom) pattern.

Why it forms: This is often a "Return to OB" or a test of the new Support Level. The market drops into an Order Block, finds buyers, and bounces.

The Shift: The second leg of the "W" pushes higher, attempting to break the downtrend. However, note the Resistance Level created by the previous lows. Price struggles to get through this.

4. The "Trap Wedge" (The Compression)

This is the most dangerous part of the chart—the Trap Wedge.

A wedge is a tightening range (Symmetric Triangle or Rising Wedge) where price is compressing.

The Trap: Everyone expects a breakout to the upside because the wedge is sloped upward. However, price "fakes" the breakout above the wedge/resistance, only to reverse violently.

Notice how the wedge sits directly at a Resistance Level and a previous OB. The smart money is using the wedge to lure buyers in before dumping the price.

5. The Framework (The Bigger Picture)

The image highlights "THREE CHART PATTERNS IN ONE FRAME." Here is how they stack together to form a trade setup:

1. Sweep: Price sweeps the high (BSL) to trap breakout traders.

2. Shift: Price breaks structure (BOS) to the downside, transitioning from Bullish to Bearish.

3. SIFT (Smart Money Sifting/Shakeout): This is the manipulation phase. The "W" and the "Trap Wedge" are designed to make retail traders think the trend is reversing back up, only for price to use that liquidity to push lower.

The Trade Idea:
The entire structure from the "Short M" through the "Trap Wedge" is a Distribution Zone. The institution is distributing their long positions to the public. The entry for short positions would typically be at the "Trap Wedge" breakout (the fake move up) or the break of the "W" low, targeting a move down to the next Order Block (OB) below.

Key Takeaway:
Don't just look at the pattern; look at the context. If a "W" or a "Breakout" happens at a major Resistance Level or Order Block, it is statistically more likely to fail. Look for the BSL sweep + BOS + Trap Wedge combo—that is the recipe for a high-probability reversal.

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30/07/2026

11/07/2026

Bitcoin Market Update: July 11, 2026

Can BTC Break $65,500, or Is a Pullback Coming?

Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads. After a sharp 11% recovery from the July 1 low of $57,748, BTC currently trades around $64,184, holding above the psychologically important $64,000 level. But momentum is fading—and the technicals are flashing warning signs.

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Key Levels to Watch

On the upside, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $64,500 to $64,720, a zone where sellers have repeatedly stepped in. The critical breakout threshold sits at $65,224 to $65,500, defined by the 50-day simple moving average. A clean break above this level with volume would open the door to $67,000 and $68,500.

On the downside, the first support zone lies at $63,683 to $63,750, followed by stronger support at $62,000 to $62,500 (the 20-day SMA). The major failure level to watch is $61,000 to $61,200—a break below this could accelerate selling toward the lower Bollinger Band near $58,350.

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Short-Term Technicals: A Bearish Tilt

Several indicators suggest the recent rally is losing steam.

The Stochastic oscillator is at 92.98—deeply overbought territory that historically precedes pullbacks. Similarly, the Bollinger Band %B reading of 0.82 indicates price is approaching the upper band ceiling, and the band itself is flattening and turning down—a sign that bullish momentum is exhausting.

The MACD histogram is converging toward zero, but this appears to be a recovery attempt from an oversold trend rather than a healthy bull signal. Meanwhile, the 12-day EMA at $62,983 remains below the 26-day EMA at $63,273, meaning the short-term cross is still technically bearish. Price has also outrun its EMAs, which typically invites a snap-back to the mean.

Price action is telling a cautionary tale. Bitcoin has seen multiple rejections at the $64,300-$64,600 zone, with the 1-hour chart showing a long upper wick at $64,680—a classic distribution pattern. Perhaps most concerning is the declining volume on bounce attempts, suggesting there is "nothing in a hurry to commit" at these levels.

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Macro & Institutional Forces

Headwinds remain. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and removed dovish language from its statement, making a September rate hike a real possibility. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets, with US-Iran tensions and oil price volatility adding to market anxiety. The CLARITY Act has also suffered setbacks, with market-implied passage odds dropping from 74% to roughly 48% in just one month.

Tailwinds are building too. ETF flows turned positive on July 10, with $90.44 million in net inflows breaking an extended outflow streak. Corporate accumulation remains robust—public companies added 110,000 BTC in Q2 2026 alone, pushing corporate holdings past 6% of total supply. The US dollar is weakening, with the DXY approaching mid-June lows, historically a supportive factor for crypto. And inflation expectations are easing, with the probability of US inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026 dropping below 20%.

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Derivatives & Positioning

Open Interest dropped 5.05% in 24 hours, indicating steady deleveraging at local highs. Top traders are 58.6% long compared to retail at 55.9%, suggesting smart money remains modestly bullish but not overextended. The funding rate sits at near zero, meaning there is no crowded-long premium to unwind. In the past 24 hours, 53,157 traders were liquidated for approximately $133 million.

Overall positioning suggests the market is not overly crowded on the long side, which limits downside cascade risk.

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Scenarios

The bull case (roughly 40% probability) envisions Bitcoin consolidating sideways while the Stochastic resets without a major price correction. A volume surge above $1.2 billion on Binance spot could drive a clean break above $65,500, with targets of $67,000 followed by $68,500. The trigger is a daily close above $65,500 with conviction volume.

The bear case (roughly 60% probability) sees the overbought Stochastic, flattening MACD, and upper Bollinger rejection leading to a pullback from the $64,720-$65,224 resistance zone. The first test would be $63,683 support, and a break below $63,151 could trigger stop cascades toward $62,000 (SMA 20), then $61,000, and ultimately the lower Bollinger near $58,350. The trigger is a break below $63,151 with volume.

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Summary

The short-term view is cautiously bearish to neutral-bearish. Three factors point toward caution: repeated rejection at $64,500-plus resistance, an overbought Stochastic while price stalls, and declining volume on bounce attempts.

However, the macro backdrop is improving—a weaker dollar, easing inflation expectations, and returning ETF inflows—while institutional accumulation remains a structural support. This suggests any pullback may be limited to the $62,000-$63,600 range rather than a collapse.

Key decision levels to watch:
- Above $65,500 = breakout confirmed — consider buy
- Below $63,151 = breakdown confirmed — consider sell/short
- Between these levels = noise zone — avoid trading

30/06/2026

29/06/2026

📈 Mastering the Bullish Order Block Retest

If you’re serious about technical analysis and Price Action (PA), understanding how to trade the retest of a Bullish Order Block is non-negotiable. It isn't just about spotting a "demand zone"; it’s about understanding the specific market behavior that leads to a high-probability entry.

This chart breaks down three distinct ways price often behaves before reclaiming an order block to continue its bullish momentum:

1️⃣ Continuation Pattern: Often seen as a flag or wedge. Price consolidates in a narrowing range after a Break of Structure (BOS), testing the patience of traders before slamming into the demand zone for the final discount entry.

2️⃣ Consolidation: This is a classic range-bound structure. Price trades sideways, effectively flushing out weak hands before dropping back into the demand zone. It’s a clean "trap" for breakout traders who get in too early.

3️⃣ Buyside Liquidity / PDL: This is perhaps the most powerful setup. The market creates an obvious swing high or a Previous Day Low (PDL) trap. Retail traders see these levels as support/resistance; smart money uses them as liquidity to fuel the move down into the demand zone for a cleaner, explosive reversal.

Why does this matter?

In the picture, you can see that the entry point (marked with the red circle) is consistently at the deepest part of the demand zone. Many traders make the mistake of buying at the first touch. However, the most successful traders wait for the "exhaustion" of these patterns—whether it's the completion of a consolidation or the sweep of liquidity—before executing.

Pro Tip: Never trade the order block in isolation. Always look for the BOS first to confirm the trend shift, then identify the pattern forming above the demand zone. If you rush the entry before these structures complete, you’re just providing liquidity for someone else.

Study these structures carefully.