06/09/2026
I have two reports for you this week!!
The first!
https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-18-year-land-cycle-poppycock-pattern-or-predictive-power
This week I sat down with property analyst Michael Matusik, who has spent more than three decades working across Australia's housing, property and planning sectors.
Michael has recently conducted his own investigation into the 18-year land cycle, prompted by questions from attendees at his annual Master Class about Samuel Benner's famous financial timetable, (shown below.)
I wrote about Benner’s chart in some detail a year or so ago in The Prophecies of Samuel Benner & George Tritch – What They Reveal About the Land Cycle.
However, Michael’s analysis gives me a good opportunity to revisit it, because there are a few important aspects of Benner’s work that are particularly relevant to where we are in the cycle today.
Rather than accepting the 18-year land cycle at face value, Michael went back through Australian housing data to see whether the long cyclical pattern could be identified independently.
I was delighted to read Michael’s analysis. It is exactly what we need to see when it comes to the cycle.
As I pointed out in my Land Cycle paper, the 1930s produced a substantial body of research into long property cycles, with researchers including Homer Hoyt, Roy Wenzlick, Arthur H. Cole and Clarence Long among many others, independently arriving at broadly the same conclusion - that there was, on average, a 16–20 year property cycle across numerous markets.
It is only when this body of evidence is properly recognised that we are likely to see broader mainstream acceptance that the land cycle is not simply an historical curiosity, but a predictable feature of the economy - and one that requires policy intervention before the speculative peak is reached, rather than attempts to repair the economic damage after the cycle has already broken!
Michael’s research found major growth peaks across markets including Blacktown, Moreton Bay, the Central Coast, Geelong, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Melbourne separated by approximately 18 to 21 years.
Today's report is going to flow in three sections.
- First I share Michael’s report and analysis.
- Then I'll add my own commentary on how the cycle should be viewed in the context of Samuel Benner’s financial timetable - giving some hints on how it was calculated
- Then you can sit back and listen to this week’s interview as we delve into current real estate trends and the 18-year land cycle a little further.
In today's report you'll discover..
- Does the 18-year land cycle really stand up when tested against Australian property history?
- What Michael Matusik discovered when he went looking for the pattern himself.
- The remarkable forecasting detail hidden within Samuel Benner’s famous timetable.
- What an extraordinary prediction made in the 1870s can teach us about the cycle today.
- Why the precise timing of past turning points matters far more than it first appears.
- Why the years on the Benner timetable fluctuate.
- What the timetable tells us re 2026
- And where the next great property opportunities could emerge once the cycle turns.
https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-18-year-land-cycle-poppycock-pattern-or-predictive-power
WAIT! THERE'S MORE!....
EVEN WARREN BUFFETT DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE LAND CYCLE!
Then Callum Newman chimes in with his report, showing why even the world’s greatest investors can get caught on the wrong side of the land cycle.
He takes a fascinating look at Warren Buffett’s investment record, the mistakes buried beneath Berkshire Hathaway’s extraordinary success, and why its latest multibillion-dollar bet on US housing could prove particularly badly timed as we approach the next major turn.
You'll discover..
- Why Warren Buffett’s extraordinary investment record may hide some surprisingly costly mistakes.
- The Berkshire Hathaway strategy that helped turn Buffett into one of the world’s richest investors.
- What changed at Berkshire after 2000 — and the enormous opportunity cost Callum says followed.
- The investment decisions Buffett made as the last land cycle unravelled in 2007–08.
- Why Berkshire’s latest US$8.5 billion bet on a US homebuilder has Callum questioning the timing.
- What happens when one of the world’s greatest investors ignores the land cycle.
- Why even Berkshire Hathaway may not be the “safe” retirement stock investors assume as the cycle turns.
https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/even-warren-buffett-doesn-t-understand-the-land-cycle
If you enjoy Callum’s analysis, make sure you follow him over at Stockfindr on Substack.
With 15 years’ experience as a financial analyst and previous work published through Fat Tail Investment Research, Marcus Today, Livewire and Money Magazine, Callum brings the same independent, provocative thinking you’ve just read here to his own work - digging into markets, stocks and investment ideas that deserve a closer look.
It’s free to subscribe, so jump over and sign up!
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