09/06/2026
The RBA meets again on Tuesday 16 June, and if you've got a mortgage you're probably wondering the same thing as everyone else — are they going to lift rates again?
Quick recap. The cash rate's at 4.35% after the RBA bumped it up by 0.25% on 5 May. The vote that day was 8 to 1, not the usual clean sweep, and Governor Michele Bullock said afterwards that the Board now thinks rates are “a bit restrictive.” Read between the lines: they'd like to sit back and see what happens for a while.
Two things are bothering them. Fuel and grocery costs have climbed thanks to the Middle East conflict, and inflation here was already too sticky before that. What they're really watching is whether higher prices start to feel “normal” — once that mindset sets in, it's much harder to unwind.
Right now, markets are pricing in around a 76% chance the RBA holds on 16 June. Not impossible they move again, but a pause looks far more likely.
The honest answer? Nobody knows yet. The jobs and inflation data due over the next couple of weeks will probably make the call for them.