12/12/2025
India Avenue hosted a webinar yesterday on a review of 2025 for Indian equity markets - a year of pause and correction of excesses built up from 2020-2024. We also discussed the outlook for 2026 for Indian Equities, which is increasingly building traits of a unique asset class for asset allocators. Let us know if you would like the YouTube link to the webinar.
Key takeaways were:
- continues to stand out as a differentiated equity asset class, delivering superior long-term compounding supported by structurally higher and less volatile earnings growth than developed and peers.
- The quality of the Indian market has improved markedly, with growing domestic investor participation reducing volatility and lowering to global equities, strengthening its role as a portfolio diversifier.
- The underperformance in 2025 represents a cyclical pause rather than a structural break, following an exceptional FY20–24 profit cycle, as valuations normalised, moderated to around long-term averages, and foreign capital temporarily retreated.
- Recent weakness has been orderly and policy-tolerated to enhance export competitiveness, while India’s fundamentals remain resilient, supported by strong growth, low inflation, and substantial foreign exchange reserves.
- relative to emerging markets have reset toward cyclical lows at a time when global investors are materially underweight India, creating scope for renewed capital inflows as earnings momentum stabilises.
- Looking into 2026, improved corporate balance sheets, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a broadening earnings recovery across financials, industrials, IT services and pharmaceuticals underpin a favourable medium-term outlook.
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