06/08/2026
After a week of hawkish central bank signals and sticky inflation data, markets are now turning their attention to July's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). With interest rate expectations hanging in the balance, tomorrow's labour market report could determine the next move for the US Dollar, Gold and global equities.
Wall Street is currently expecting 88,000–120,000 new jobs after June's 57,000 increase. Leading indicators have been mixed, with ADP employment rising by 44,000 in July, while the ISM Services Employment Index slipped into contraction at 47.4, suggesting hiring momentum may be slowing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold around 4.2%–4.3%, with any move above 4.3% likely to reignite expectations for Fed rate cuts.
If payrolls come in above 130,000, accompanied by solid wage growth, it would reinforce the Fed's higher-for-longer stance. That could strengthen the US Dollar while putting pressure on Gold and equity markets. On the other hand, a reading below 60,000 or an unexpected rise in unemployment would likely fuel rate-cut expectations, weighing on the Dollar while supporting Gold and risk assets.
With markets finely balanced, tomorrow's NFP could become one of the biggest volatility events of the month. Whether you're trading currencies, indices or Gold, it's a release worth watching closely.
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