Mutch Financial Services - Darryl Mutch

03/11/2026

RATE ANNOUNCEMENT - unfortunately the RBA has done it again. We are heading up another 0.25 percent on our loans.

Full announcement on

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

29/09/2026

RATES UP The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6%, marking the fourth increase this year after a two-meeting pause.

It takes the official cash rate to its highest level since November 2011.

Unfortunately, the likelihood of another rise this year is now locked in for most economists. We can almost see the question turning to - will there be three or four increases now.

IN SUMMARY we have the highest government spending, and wars overseas driving inflation. As long as this continues we will have an RBA moving rates higher.

Here are the minutes from the RBA meeting:

Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising. The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts. AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology-related goods. And there remains pressure on domestic capacity. Liaison indicates that firms are experiencing cost pressures and are either increasing the prices of their goods and services or looking to do so. Short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated. And recent inflation outcomes in Australia were stronger than expected at the previous meeting.

Growth in output has slowed but, at the margin, was stronger than expected in the June quarter. There are signs that growth in consumer spending is easing gradually as expected, although housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably. Labour market conditions have eased broadly as expected in recent months, and labour market leading indicators are broadly stable. Meanwhile, growth in business investment and debt is strong.

There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The Middle East conflict remains unresolved, and there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast. Global oil supply disruptions are maintaining upward pressure on global and domestic energy prices and inflation. A period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in Australia. To date, however, growth in Australia’s major trading partners has been stronger than expected, as the boost from AI-related investment has outweighed the adverse effects of the Middle East conflict. In Australia, weak productivity growth continues to constrain potential growth and there are uncertainties about the economic effects of the downturn in the housing market.

DECISION

Since the previous meeting, some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising. There have been further disruptions to global oil supply and recent data suggest that growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected. Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services. This inflation impulse is in addition to the effect of capacity pressures in the economy.

The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded. To achieve this, growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued for a period to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target. The three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be slowing. But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that, in light of recent developments, a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period.
The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed. Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments, and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

11/08/2026

RBA RATE ANNOUNCEMENT No change!

Here are the minutes from the RBA below. My read very hawkish! If we see inflation heading up or continues to stall going down then we will see another rate increase. Most economists are now saying we won’t have another hike.

FROM THE MINUTES:

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent.

Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of the increase reflected greater capacity pressures. While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too high. Trimmed mean inflation also remains elevated and is little changed from the March quarter. Oil and most related commodity prices remain higher than they were prior to the Middle East conflict. Some firms experiencing cost pressures are increasing the prices of their goods and services and others are looking to do so. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have eased but remain higher than earlier in the year.

Financial conditions have tightened in response to three increases in the cash rate target this year. Money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen, and the exchange rate has appreciated. There are signs that consumer spending growth is slowing gradually as expected, while growth in business debt and investment is strong. Momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities and new housing loans declining noticeably. Labour market conditions have eased by a little more than expected in recent months. Labour market leading indicators point to only limited easing in the near term.

There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. Resolution of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain, and there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast. Global oil supply will take time to recover, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation, in which case domestic inflationary pressures could be higher than expected. A period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in Australia. So far, growth in Australia’s major trading partners has been stronger than expected, as the boost from AI-related investment has outweighed the adverse effects of the Middle East conflict. In Australia, historically weak productivity growth continues to constrain potential growth.

Decision
The disruption to global oil supply is adding directly to inflation and there are indications that higher fuel prices are being passed through to prices of other goods and services, so inflation is likely to remain high for some time. This inflation impulse is in addition to the effect of capacity pressures in the economy.

The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded. To achieve this, growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target. Following three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and the economy appears to be slowing as expected. But inflation is still too high. It is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027 and there are upside risks to this projection. With monetary policy judged to be somewhat restrictive, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses how the economy is evolving. The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.

Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

16/06/2026

RATE CALL: No change! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35% today.

The bank will be looking at how inflation continues - a rise in inflation will be seen by most as a direct driver for further rate increases.

For more visit

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

12/05/2026

Budget 2026 - specific for investors:

- from July 1, 2027, the current 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will be replaced with inflation-adjusted indexation.

- new minimum 30 per cent tax rate will apply on capital gains from July 1, 2028

- negative gearing will remain on new builds only.

- investors in new home builds will also retain the option to use the capital gains 50 per cent discount when they sell.

- new houses are now planned to be 35,000 less

- ban on foreign buyers buying existing homes extended.

What is capital gains tax?

Capital gains tax is the tax you pay on profits from selling of assets, including investments such as property and shares.

The old discount was a 50 per cent reduction if held for a year or more. So $10K gain meant half or $5K was added to your taxable income.

House price growth

Treasurer has stated he expects prices to grow around two percent less per year.

Wealthy older Australians will face far heftier tax bills when they sell assets like property or shares under Labor’s once-in-a-generation overhaul to the capital gains tax.

05/05/2026

RBA rate hike - up 0.25%. I am well but concerned about where the Australian economy (and world) is heading at the moment.

Inflation is looking to be out of control for at least six months according to the RBA chief - she said something like the following at the press conference yesterday; "the rate rises that we do today won't have any impact over inflation for six months" and "if we have to go into stage three fuel conservation, then we will be in an even harder situation".

See the full RBA message at

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

17/03/2026

RBA RATE UPDATE - hike of 0.25 percent.

The RBA has now delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point increase, lifting the official cash rate to 4.1 per cent.

The decision was split, with five voting to increase and four opting to leave the rate unchanged.

The move reflects a combination of persistent inflationary pressures, high government spending, a labour market that has remained tighter than expected, and ongoing global volatility contributing to elevated costs.

As of January 2026, Australia’s annual inflation rate remained at 3.8 per cent, still above the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target range. Trimmed mean inflation also edged higher to 3.4 per cent, up from 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to December.

Housing (+6.8 per cent) and food (+3.1 per cent) continue to be key contributors, while services inflation sits at 3.9 per cent and goods inflation has accelerated to 3.8 per cent, driven in part by rising electricity prices.

More at

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

03/02/2026

NO SURPRISE 😳 Rate hike is here again.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced that the official cash rate will be hiked by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the interest rate to 3.85 per cent.

The decision to hike rates was unanimous by the Board.

In a statement, the RBA board said, "A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025.

"While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight.

"The Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target."

Key question is… how will inflation look moving forward. If we don’t start seeing it under control then this won’t be the last. Inflation is a tough nut once it starts getting out of control.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

09/12/2025

RBA - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced that the official cash rate will remain on hold for the next couple of months, after keeping it steady at 3.60 per cent for December/January.

This marks the third consecutive month where the cash rate has not moved, and the first time in a year that the settings have been kept level for more than two rate decisions (the last time being in 2024 - when the cash rate was held at 4.35 per cent for the whole year).

Prediction … if spending and price rises on our everyday items like coffee aren’t rained on… the next rate change will be up.

Prediction with a hint of hope.. no change in rates at all for 26.

29/10/2025

RATE PREDICTION - the Australia Bureau of Statistics shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation rate came in at 1.0 per cent for the quarter, above the RBA’s expectations.

This means the case for a rate cut this year is not strong.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.