Mutch Financial Services - Darryl Mutch

11/08/2026

RBA RATE ANNOUNCEMENT No change!

Here are the minutes from the RBA below. My read very hawkish! If we see inflation heading up or continues to stall going down then we will see another rate increase. Most economists are now saying we won’t have another hike.

FROM THE MINUTES:

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent.

Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of the increase reflected greater capacity pressures. While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too high. Trimmed mean inflation also remains elevated and is little changed from the March quarter. Oil and most related commodity prices remain higher than they were prior to the Middle East conflict. Some firms experiencing cost pressures are increasing the prices of their goods and services and others are looking to do so. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have eased but remain higher than earlier in the year.

Financial conditions have tightened in response to three increases in the cash rate target this year. Money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen, and the exchange rate has appreciated. There are signs that consumer spending growth is slowing gradually as expected, while growth in business debt and investment is strong. Momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities and new housing loans declining noticeably. Labour market conditions have eased by a little more than expected in recent months. Labour market leading indicators point to only limited easing in the near term.

There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. Resolution of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain, and there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast. Global oil supply will take time to recover, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation, in which case domestic inflationary pressures could be higher than expected. A period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in Australia. So far, growth in Australia’s major trading partners has been stronger than expected, as the boost from AI-related investment has outweighed the adverse effects of the Middle East conflict. In Australia, historically weak productivity growth continues to constrain potential growth.

Decision
The disruption to global oil supply is adding directly to inflation and there are indications that higher fuel prices are being passed through to prices of other goods and services, so inflation is likely to remain high for some time. This inflation impulse is in addition to the effect of capacity pressures in the economy.

The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded. To achieve this, growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target. Following three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and the economy appears to be slowing as expected. But inflation is still too high. It is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027 and there are upside risks to this projection. With monetary policy judged to be somewhat restrictive, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses how the economy is evolving. The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.

Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

16/06/2026

RATE CALL: No change! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35% today.

The bank will be looking at how inflation continues - a rise in inflation will be seen by most as a direct driver for further rate increases.

For more visit

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

12/05/2026

Budget 2026 - specific for investors:

- from July 1, 2027, the current 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will be replaced with inflation-adjusted indexation.

- new minimum 30 per cent tax rate will apply on capital gains from July 1, 2028

- negative gearing will remain on new builds only.

- investors in new home builds will also retain the option to use the capital gains 50 per cent discount when they sell.

- new houses are now planned to be 35,000 less

- ban on foreign buyers buying existing homes extended.

What is capital gains tax?

Capital gains tax is the tax you pay on profits from selling of assets, including investments such as property and shares.

The old discount was a 50 per cent reduction if held for a year or more. So $10K gain meant half or $5K was added to your taxable income.

House price growth

Treasurer has stated he expects prices to grow around two percent less per year.

Wealthy older Australians will face far heftier tax bills when they sell assets like property or shares under Labor’s once-in-a-generation overhaul to the capital gains tax.

05/05/2026

RBA rate hike - up 0.25%. I am well but concerned about where the Australian economy (and world) is heading at the moment.

Inflation is looking to be out of control for at least six months according to the RBA chief - she said something like the following at the press conference yesterday; "the rate rises that we do today won't have any impact over inflation for six months" and "if we have to go into stage three fuel conservation, then we will be in an even harder situation".

See the full RBA message at

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

17/03/2026

RBA RATE UPDATE - hike of 0.25 percent.

The RBA has now delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point increase, lifting the official cash rate to 4.1 per cent.

The decision was split, with five voting to increase and four opting to leave the rate unchanged.

The move reflects a combination of persistent inflationary pressures, high government spending, a labour market that has remained tighter than expected, and ongoing global volatility contributing to elevated costs.

As of January 2026, Australia’s annual inflation rate remained at 3.8 per cent, still above the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target range. Trimmed mean inflation also edged higher to 3.4 per cent, up from 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to December.

Housing (+6.8 per cent) and food (+3.1 per cent) continue to be key contributors, while services inflation sits at 3.9 per cent and goods inflation has accelerated to 3.8 per cent, driven in part by rising electricity prices.

More at

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

03/02/2026

NO SURPRISE 😳 Rate hike is here again.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced that the official cash rate will be hiked by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the interest rate to 3.85 per cent.

The decision to hike rates was unanimous by the Board.

In a statement, the RBA board said, "A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025.

"While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight.

"The Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target."

Key question is… how will inflation look moving forward. If we don’t start seeing it under control then this won’t be the last. Inflation is a tough nut once it starts getting out of control.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

09/12/2025

RBA - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced that the official cash rate will remain on hold for the next couple of months, after keeping it steady at 3.60 per cent for December/January.

This marks the third consecutive month where the cash rate has not moved, and the first time in a year that the settings have been kept level for more than two rate decisions (the last time being in 2024 - when the cash rate was held at 4.35 per cent for the whole year).

Prediction … if spending and price rises on our everyday items like coffee aren’t rained on… the next rate change will be up.

Prediction with a hint of hope.. no change in rates at all for 26.

29/10/2025

RATE PREDICTION - the Australia Bureau of Statistics shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation rate came in at 1.0 per cent for the quarter, above the RBA’s expectations.

This means the case for a rate cut this year is not strong.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

30/09/2025

RBA RATE UPDATE no change this month and the odds are maybe heading toward no further cuts this year 🤔

Following discussions on 29 and 30 September, the Monetary Policy Board announced its rate decision this afternoon (30 September), holding the official cash rate where it is.

The vast majority of bank economists had expected the RBA to reduce the cash rate today, with all four of Australia’s major banks predicting that the central bank would maintain its current settings, after having dropped the cash rate to its lowest level in two years just six weeks ago.

Similarly, on Monday (29 September), the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures was trading at 96.41, indicating that just 4 per cent expected the interest rate to decrease to 3.35 per cent.

In its post-meeting statement, the RBA monetary policy board said: "With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the Board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions.

The monetary policy board also noted that private consumption is "picking up"as real household incomes rise and measures of financial conditions ease, and that the housing market is "strengthening".

According to the RBA, the strength of the housing market is "a sign that recent interest rate decreases are having an effect" and that "credit is readily available to both households and businesses".

It concluded: "The board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

"The board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome."

The RBA has been clear that it is taking a longer-term view when making decisions about the cash rate.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.

12/08/2025

RATE CUT! This will add around $50K to the average person’s borrowing capacity. Normally extra capacity along with Spring lead to prices heading upwards.

I don’t see another cut happening this year unless the data continues to stack up against the evonomy again.

Here are the minutes from the RBA meeting outlining the reasons:

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent.

Inflation has continued to moderate.
Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. In the June quarter, trimmed mean inflation over the year fell to 2.7 per cent, broadly as expected in May. Headline inflation, which has partly been affected by temporary cost of living relief measures, was 2.1 per cent, also as forecast. Updated staff forecasts for the August meeting suggest that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path.

The outlook remains uncertain.
Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated. There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided. Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic activity, and there remains a risk that households and firms delay expenditure pending still greater clarity on the outlook. As in May, the forecasts assume that both effects weigh on activity and inflation in Australia for a period.

Domestically, private demand appears to have been recovering gradually, real household incomes have picked up and some measures of financial conditions have eased.

Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight, although have eased further in recent months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in the month of June and averaged 4.2 per cent in the June quarter as a whole, in line with the May forecasts. Measures of labour underutilisation nevertheless remain at low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has eased from its peak but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.

There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. The forecasts released today are for the recovery in household consumption growth to be sustained as real incomes rise. Businesses in some sectors, however, continue to report that weakness in demand is making it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices. There is a risk that consumption growth is a little slower than expected, which could weigh on growth in aggregate demand and lead to weaker labour market conditions. Alternatively, as real incomes and wealth continue to rise, households might choose to consume more and save less than expected. Labour market outcomes may also prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators.

There are also uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the balance between aggregate demand and potential supply for goods and services, conditions in the labour market and continued weak productivity outcomes.

Maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority.
With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate. This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points. The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

Decision
Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

We are Australia's central bank. We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation's currency.