Tom Hawley

18/10/2026

16/10/2026

Property prices falling doesn’t automatically mean property is more affordable.

$1M property.
$800K loan at 5.25%.

Versus:
$900K property.
$720K loan at 6.25%.

The property is 10% cheaper. The loan is $80K smaller.

But the repayments are actually higher.

A lower purchase price only tells you half the story.

Would I rather be buying today than 12 months ago? Yes.

You’re buying at a lower price, with less competition, and potentially with less upside risk to interest rates than someone who bought before the rate hikes.

But cheaper property does not necessarily mean cheaper repayments.

Affordability is about the price AND the cost of money.
General information only. Not financial advice.

15/10/2026

How do you borrow almost 20% more without earning another dollar?

This client earns $140k base + $100k in commission and wanted to take advantage of a softer property market.

One major lender assessed her at around $1.05m.
Another lending option got her above $1.2m.

Same borrower. Same income. Very different result.
Why?

Different lenders treat income differently. Different servicing buffers. Different policies around commission and bonuses.

Now, the higher borrowing capacity came with a higher interest rate and additional risk. We made sure she understood that before making any decision.

But she also knew her earning potential was increasing and wanted the option to push her budget for the right property.

This is why understanding lender policy matters.

Your borrowing capacity isn’t just determined by how much you earn.
It’s also determined by who you ask.

General information only. Your circumstances, borrowing capacity and lender eligibility will vary.

14/10/2026

POV: you get in the room with Albanese & co and ask where the money is actually going…

14/10/2026

There’s a good chance property prices have further to fall.
But they don’t ring a bell at the bottom.

Right now, buyers have something they haven’t had for a long time: leverage.
Less competition. More negotiating power. More choice.

The second the market turns, that changes. You go from being the only serious buyer to competing with three or four others, and suddenly your advantage is gone.

So if the right property comes up now, and you’re buying with a long-term view, I wouldn’t necessarily sit on the sidelines trying to perfectly pick the bottom.

Because you might wait another six months and get a lower market. But when that same quality property comes up, you could have three or four other buyers fighting you for it. You might pay more, or you might miss out on the property altogether.

You could also buy today and watch the value fall further over the next 6–12 months. That’s the reality of buying on the way down.

But if it’s the right property and you’re planning to hold it for the long term, what happens over the next six months matters a lot less than what happens over the next 10 years.

This isn’t financial advice and everyone’s circumstances are different. Do your own research and get professional advice before making any property or financial decision.

12/10/2026

When you actually lay everything out, the Australian economy is looking pretty dire.

Almost everything on the board is in the red.

Interest rates at 15-year highs.
Inflation too high.
Property falling.
Auction clearance rates through the floor.
Rents at record highs.
Housing supply going backwards.
Real wages falling.
Consumer confidence collapsing.
Productivity going nowhere.
GDP per capita in recession.
Taxes increasing.
Small businesses under serious pressure.

At face value, it doesn’t exactly scream “great time to invest”.

But here’s the question.

If I showed you this exact snapshot in 2036, would you look back and think 2026 was a terrible time to buy?

Or would you look back and see an opportunity?

I’m not saying rush out and buy a property tomorrow.

But the best opportunities rarely appear when everything looks perfect and everyone feels confident.

When sentiment is this bad, the headlines are this negative and everyone else is looking for the exit, it’s worth paying attention to who is quietly looking for the entrance.

The smart money is starting to get the chequebook out.

08/10/2026

Sydney needs more housing. The problem? In some cases, developers can’t make the numbers work even if the land was FREE.

It now costs more than $1 million to deliver a new apartment in Sydney, with around $113,000 of that attributed to land.

Take the land cost away completely and you’re still looking at roughly $937,000 to build it.

Construction costs, labour, regulation and financing have all become more expensive, while buyers can only pay what they can afford.

If developers can’t make money building apartments, they won’t build them.

And with Sydney desperately needing more housing, that creates an even bigger supply problem.

Eventually, something has to give.

07/10/2026

If you’re currently with HSBC, now is a very good time to review your home loan.

We’re getting a lot of enquiries from HSBC customers following the sale of its Australian retail banking business.

And the reality is, there are some very competitive alternatives out there.

We recently refinanced a law firm partner from HSBC into the private banking division of a major bank.

Lower rate.
Better service proposition.
Better overall banking relationship.

The key is knowing which banks to approach and how to negotiate the deal.

06/10/2026

This is the part of negative equity that I don’t think people fully understand.

If you bought with a 5% deposit and your property falls far enough in value, you can end up owing the bank more than your property is worth.

If you’re forced to sell, you could lose your deposit, lose the money you’ve spent buying the property and still be left with debt after the property is gone.

And under the First Home Guarantee, the bank isn’t taking all of that risk.
The Government guarantees part of the loan above 80%.

Which means taxpayers are ultimately exposed to a portion of the losses if these loans go bad.

First home buyers were encouraged into 95% loans near the top of the market.

Now property prices have fallen and rates are at a 15-year high.

That’s the part I have a problem with.

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