04/03/2026
⚡️ Headline: War Escalation Drives Dollar Surge — Gold & Oil Rally
🌍 Market Overview
• 🌍 Global markets were dominated Monday (Mar 2) by rapidly escalating Middle East tensions.
• ⚔️ Israel–Iran conflict expanded to energy infrastructure, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stalled.
• 🛢️ WTI crude surged 5.98% above $71, reflecting fears of supply disruption.
• 🟡 Gold held above $5,350 as safe-haven demand intensified.
• 💵 Dollar Index jumped 0.93% to 98.55, pressuring non-USD currencies.
• 🏦 Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned the conflict could fuel inflation, making the Fed more cautious on rate cuts.
• 📅 Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from July to September.
• 🇪🇺 ECB Chief Economist Lane also warned prolonged conflict could trigger surging Eurozone inflation.
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💵 US Dollar
• 📈 DXY +0.93% to 98.55, hitting a five-week high.
• 🛡️ Safe-haven demand and hawkish policy expectations supported the dollar.
• 📊 US Treasury yields climbed sharply:
• 2Y: 3.479%
• 10Y: 4.044%
• 🦅 Yellen suggested the Fed may hold rates steady longer due to oil-driven inflation risks.
• 👀 Next focus: Fed officials’ commentary and geopolitical developments.
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🟡 Spot Gold
• 📈 Gold rebounded and closed above $5,350 despite dollar strength.
• ⚠️ Oil-driven inflation fears are fueling stagflation concerns, supporting safe-haven flows.
• 📊 SPDR Gold ETF added 3.43 tonnes, showing continued institutional demand.
• 🔧 Technical levels:
• Support: $5,300
• Resistance: $5,380 → $5,400
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💴 USD / JPY
• 📈 USDJPY surged above 157, closing at 157.23.
• 📊 Driven by widening US–Japan yield differentials.
• 🇯🇵 Japan unemployment held at 2.6%, but had limited FX impact.
• 🎯 Resistance: 158.00
• 🟢 Support: 156.50
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🇦🇺 AUD / USD
• 📉 AUD extended losses, falling below 0.6750.
• ⚠️ Strong USD + worsening risk sentiment pressured the currency.
• 🇨🇳 China-linked growth concerns also weighed on AUD.
• 🔧 Next support level: 0.6700
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🛢️ WTI Crude Oil
• 🚀 WTI jumped 5.98% to $71.03 (intraday gains briefly >8%).
• ⚠️ Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten ~20% of global oil supply.
• 🏦 Yellen warned prolonged disruption could push oil even higher.
• 📊 Risk premiums overshadowed rising US inventory data.
• 🎯 Next resistance: $73