04/03/2026
β‘οΈ Headline: War Escalation Drives Dollar Surge β Gold & Oil Rally
π Market Overview
β’ π Global markets were dominated Monday (Mar 2) by rapidly escalating Middle East tensions.
β’ βοΈ IsraelβIran conflict expanded to energy infrastructure, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stalled.
β’ π’οΈ WTI crude surged 5.98% above $71, reflecting fears of supply disruption.
β’ π‘ Gold held above $5,350 as safe-haven demand intensified.
β’ π΅ Dollar Index jumped 0.93% to 98.55, pressuring non-USD currencies.
β’ π¦ Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned the conflict could fuel inflation, making the Fed more cautious on rate cuts.
β’ π
Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from July to September.
β’ πͺπΊ ECB Chief Economist Lane also warned prolonged conflict could trigger surging Eurozone inflation.
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π΅ US Dollar
β’ π DXY +0.93% to 98.55, hitting a five-week high.
β’ π‘οΈ Safe-haven demand and hawkish policy expectations supported the dollar.
β’ π US Treasury yields climbed sharply:
β’ 2Y: 3.479%
β’ 10Y: 4.044%
β’ π¦
Yellen suggested the Fed may hold rates steady longer due to oil-driven inflation risks.
β’ π Next focus: Fed officialsβ commentary and geopolitical developments.
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π‘ Spot Gold
β’ π Gold rebounded and closed above $5,350 despite dollar strength.
β’ β οΈ Oil-driven inflation fears are fueling stagflation concerns, supporting safe-haven flows.
β’ π SPDR Gold ETF added 3.43 tonnes, showing continued institutional demand.
β’ π§ Technical levels:
β’ Support: $5,300
β’ Resistance: $5,380 β $5,400
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π΄ USD / JPY
β’ π USDJPY surged above 157, closing at 157.23.
β’ π Driven by widening USβJapan yield differentials.
β’ π―π΅ Japan unemployment held at 2.6%, but had limited FX impact.
β’ π― Resistance: 158.00
β’ π’ Support: 156.50
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π¦πΊ AUD / USD
β’ π AUD extended losses, falling below 0.6750.
β’ β οΈ Strong USD + worsening risk sentiment pressured the currency.
β’ π¨π³ China-linked growth concerns also weighed on AUD.
β’ π§ Next support level: 0.6700
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π’οΈ WTI Crude Oil
β’ π WTI jumped 5.98% to $71.03 (intraday gains briefly >8%).
β’ β οΈ Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten ~20% of global oil supply.
β’ π¦ Yellen warned prolonged disruption could push oil even higher.
β’ π Risk premiums overshadowed rising US inventory data.
β’ π― Next resistance: $73
