29/07/2026
Westpac just reversed its rate rise call. Hours after this morning's inflation data.
Headline inflation came in at 3.8% for the year... down from 4.0% in May and 4.2% in April. Three months of easing in a row.
Going into this week, Westpac was the last of the big four still forecasting rises. Two of them, which would have taken the cash rate to 4.85%. By this afternoon they'd dropped the call. All four majors now expect no more increases this year.
Market odds of a hike at the RBA's 11 August meeting fell from around 20% to about 3%.
On fixed rates. What we generally find is that when the outlook shifts from "more hikes" toward stable, fixed pricing moves before any RBA announcement rather than after it. The gap between fixed and variable tends to narrow.
The honest caveat, and you can see it on the chart: underlying inflation held steady at 3.6%. It hasn't come down. Much of the headline fall came from petrol. Housing (rent) is still running at 6.8%.
The sequence from here is simple. Inflation needs to get back inside 2–3% and hold there before the RBA will consider cutting. That's what eventually flows through to home loan rates.
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This is general information only and doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
