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UpThink Financials and Things in Between Pay-forward education on finance, health, and holistic growth for everyone. bit.ly/wealthcraft

09/10/2026

Run the Philippine 2027 national budget through ChatGPT! Let AI dissect every billion, expose questionable priorities, and sniff out budget items that smell more like political favors than public service. Trillions of pesos, endless promises, and the same old magic trick: taxpayers' money goes in, but where does it go? Time to put the budget under an AI microscope. 🇵🇭🔥

Many Filipino households have some room to save, but only a fraction of that surplus may actually become long-term inves...
30/09/2026

Many Filipino households have some room to save, but only a fraction of that surplus may actually become long-term investments. Meanwhile, retirement brings its own pressures: modest pensions, rising healthcare costs, inadequate protection, and potentially decades without employment income.

For Filipino investors, DragonFi’s OTC Depositary Receipts could make global investing more accessible, allowing exposur...
29/09/2026

For Filipino investors, DragonFi’s OTC Depositary Receipts could make global investing more accessible, allowing exposure to selected foreign stocks and ETFs through a Philippine broker and using pesos.

But accessibility is not the same as direct ownership. You are buying a locally registered receipt representing the foreign security, which can mean a more limited investment selection, different liquidity and pricing, additional fees and custodial layers, and potentially fewer voting, transfer, and trading privileges than with a direct foreign brokerage account.

**The opportunity**: easier, locally regulated access to global diversification.

**The limitation**: less flexibility and control than directly holding the underlying foreign securities.
And for now, it remains part of the SEC Strategic Sandbox, so the final structure and terms matter.

But did you know? There are other ways to directly invest in the US market. Know your options.

Brent Crude Oil is falling while Philippine gas prices are soaring. Paldong paldo na sila :)
21/09/2026

Brent Crude Oil is falling while Philippine gas prices are soaring. Paldong paldo na sila :)

I am not against taxation. A functioning state must, after all, be paid for.But there is something rather backwards abou...
19/09/2026

I am not against taxation. A functioning state must, after all, be paid for.

But there is something rather backwards about taxing people into better behaviour before giving them a reasonable means of behaving better.

Take the proposed taxes on unhealthy food (sugary/sweetened beverage and food tax). The health argument is understandable: discourage excessive sugar consumption, reduce disease, ease the eventual burden on public healthcare.

Fine.

But what if fresh, nutritious food remains expensive or inconvenient for millions of Filipinos? What if vegetables are being discarded in farming provinces because they cannot economically reach the very urban households being told to eat better?

Surely the order matters.

Fix farm-to-market logistics. Build cold storage. Reduce needless middlemen and spoilage. Make vegetables and healthier food genuinely affordable. Then, when alternatives actually exist, there is a much stronger case for taxing unhealthy choices.

The same principle deserves application elsewhere.

Fuel taxes eventually find their way into fares, freight and food. Electricity charges deserve particular scrutiny when households have little choice but to consume electricity. Documentary stamp taxes create friction in perfectly ordinary transactions. Layers of national and local fees nibble away at small businesses. Even the travel tax invites the rather obvious question of why the act of leaving one's own country should itself be a revenue event.

None of this means abolishing taxes indiscriminately. It means demanding a better standard.

Before imposing another tax, ask:
What failure are we correcting? Who ultimately pays? Is there a practical alternative? Has government done its part first? And, rather importantly, where does the money actually go?

Taxation is at its most defensible when it sits atop a functioning system.

It should not be the system.

18/09/2026

Wag muna magpafull tank. Oil just plummeted 6% overnight. Something happened. Price next Tues after this Tues P5-10 .

What percentage of average monthly income is consumed by food?After normalizing available national income and food-expen...
15/09/2026

What percentage of average monthly income is consumed by food?

After normalizing available national income and food-expenditure data, the approximate picture is:

🇰🇷 South Korea ~9%
🇯🇵 Japan ~14%
🇻🇳 Vietnam ~26%
🇵🇭 Philippines ~29%
🇮🇩 Indonesia ~30%

Lower is better.

This doesn't necessarily mean food is cheaper in Japan or Korea. In absolute terms, many food items there can be considerably more expensive.

What it tells us is something different: income is high enough relative to food costs that feeding yourself consumes a smaller portion of what you earn.

Imagine every country earning 100 units of income.

A Korean household needs roughly 9 for food and has about 91 left.

A Japanese household uses around 14, leaving 86.

For the Philippines, roughly 29 out of every 100 goes to food, leaving only 71 for everything else.

And that “everything else” matters:
housing, electricity, transpo, healthcare, education, insurance, emergency funds, retirement, investments, leisure, raising children.

This is why economic progress shouldn't be judged only by whether wages are rising or whether food prices are being kept artificially low.

A better question is:

How much of a person's labor and income must be exchanged simply to meet basic needs?

The less income required for necessities, the more economic space households have to save, invest, protect themselves and improve their quality of life.

That, to me, is a more intuitive measure of prosperity.

A 5% salary increase sounds good…until your cost of living goes up faster. If you’re earning ₱100,000/month today, maint...
11/09/2026

A 5% salary increase sounds good…
until your cost of living goes up faster.

If you’re earning ₱100,000/month today, maintaining roughly the same purchasing power at the current annual hurdle would mean earning around:

₱110K next year → ₱161K in 5 years → ₱259K in 10 years.

That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re getting richer. It may simply mean you’re keeping up.

What can the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas do beyond interest rates, inflation, and defending the peso?The Philippines has...
01/09/2026

What can the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas do beyond interest rates, inflation, and defending the peso?

The Philippines has a Gordian knot of problems. The BSP cannot fix agriculture, electricity, infrastructure, education, or productivity by itself.

But it sits at the center of something powerful:

How money moves through the economy and how money becomes capital.

So rather than asking the BSP to solve everything, I’d focus on seven areas where it has real leverage.

1. Financial inclusion → capital formation

We’ve become very good at making money easy to spend.

E-wallets, QR payments and digital banking have transformed transactions.

The next frontier should be making wealth accumulation equally easy:

Income → Savings → Insurance → Investment → Retirement

Imagine being able to automatically direct even 3 to 5% of every salary or remittance into savings or investments.

Not mandatory. Just frictionless. PERA can do this.

2. Give MSMEs a “Credit Passport”

Small businesses often struggle to borrow because they lack collateral.

But they increasingly leave digital footprints: bank transactions, QR sales, invoices, utilities, taxes, payroll and e-commerce receipts.

With the owner's consent, these could help banks answer a better question.

Not just:

“What property can you mortgage?”

But:

“How reliably does your business generate cash?”

Better data doesn't mean reckless lending. It means better underwriting.

3. Turn remittances into wealth

OFW remittances have supported Philippine consumption for decades.

The next evolution could be:

₱20,000 remittance →
₱16,000 family
₱2,000 savings
₱1,000 protection/retirement
₱1,000 investment

Voluntary and customizable.

Multiply small allocations across millions of OFWs and decades.

We gradually transform an exporter of labor into an owner of capital.

4. Make financial scams harder to execute

Fraud isn't just consumer protection.

It destroys trust and trust is infrastructure.

Banks + e-wallets + telcos + law enforcement should eventually operate a shared fraud-response network:

Transaction → recipient → mule account → SIM/device → downstream accounts.

The objective: freeze and trace stolen money in minutes rather than days.

5. Attack inflation at the right level

Higher interest rates cannot grow onions, produce rice, generate electricity, or lower world oil prices.

But BSP must act when those shocks spread into broader inflation.

So:

Government attacks the source.
BSP prevents the propagation.

DA, DOE, DTI, PSA, DOF and BSP should share a serious real-time picture of where inflation is actually coming from.

6. Deepen Philippine capital markets

Banks are excellent at lending against predictable cash flows and collateral.

But startups, R&D, technology, infrastructure and high-growth businesses often need risk capital.

We need deeper corporate bonds, private credit, investment funds, venture capital and infrastructure securities.

The goal:

Filipino savings → Philippine productive assets.

Financial inclusion shouldn't end with Filipinos owning accounts.

It should eventually mean more Filipinos own capital.

7. Think structurally about the peso

We often talk about “defending the peso.”

But over the long run, a currency reflects the economy underneath it.

If we continually import energy, food inputs, machinery and high-value goods, we continually need foreign currency.

The durable solution isn't simply defending the peso harder.

It's producing and exporting more valuable things.

The BSP cannot build those industries.

But it can help build the financial system that funds them.

This is the bigger loop I'd try to reverse:

Low productivity → low wages → low savings → shallow capital → expensive financing → weak investment → low productivity.

Replace it with:

Financial inclusion → savings → capital → productive investment → productivity → higher wages → more savings → deeper capital markets → greater peso resilience.

That is the bigger opportunity for Philippine central banking.

Price stability protects purchasing power. Financial stability protects savings. Financial development should help Filipinos build and own capital.

The BSP's long-term job isn't only managing the price of money.

It is also improving the plumbing through which money becomes productive capital.

BSP 101

31/08/2026

📊 WEEKLY CAPITAL INTELLIGENCE

Risk Deployment Score: 62/100 — Constructive, but Selective

Are markets giving investors a green light?

Somewhat — but this is not yet an “all-in” environment.

Our latest reading is 62/100, which means conditions remain generally supportive of owning risk assets, but there are enough warning signs to justify keeping some dry powder.

💧 1. There is liquidity in the system.

Money and liquidity conditions remain generally supportive. This matters because abundant liquidity can help equities, crypto and other risk assets.

But liquidity alone isn't enough.

What matters is whether that money can actually reach risk assets without being overwhelmed by high interest rates, inflation or financial stress.

That's why we look at two things:

GLR — Global Liquidity Regime: Is liquidity expanding?

ERL — Effective Risk Liquidity: Is that liquidity actually translating into favorable conditions for investors?

Our current conclusion:

🟢 Liquidity: supportive
🟡 Transmission to risk assets: only moderately supportive

Why?

Long-term interest rates and real yields remain relatively high. Money may be available, but money is still expensive.

🏦 2. Credit markets are surprisingly calm.

Corporate credit spreads remain contained and broader financial conditions aren't signaling serious financial stress.

That's important.

When the economy or financial system is approaching trouble, credit markets often begin flashing warnings before ordinary investors notice.

For now, we're not seeing that.

🤖 3. The AI boom remains real—but it's becoming an infrastructure story.

One of the biggest investment lessons emerging from AI is that artificial intelligence requires much more than powerful chips.

Think of the chain:

AI → Chips → Memory → Networking → Data Centers → Cooling → Electricity → Power Grid

Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing into AI infrastructure.

But increasingly, the constraint isn't simply:

“Can we get enough GPUs?”

It's becoming:

“Where do we get enough electricity to run them?”

That means the AI investment opportunity may increasingly spread toward:

⚡ Power generation
🏗️ Data-center infrastructure
🔌 Electrical equipment
❄️ Cooling systems
☢️ Nuclear energy
🔥 Natural gas generation
🔋 Energy storage
🖥️ Semiconductors and networking

The AI revolution may therefore become an industrial and energy investment cycle, not merely a technology-stock story.

🐘 4. What is Big Money doing?

We also monitor large capital allocators such as Berkshire Hathaway, institutional investors and corporate insiders.

Berkshire has recently shifted from being a persistent net seller of equities toward deploying meaningful capital again.

That's interesting—but it doesn't mean:

“Warren Buffett bought, therefore everyone should buy.”

Large investors have different objectives, time horizons and information.

We treat their behavior as evidence, not prophecy.

🧭 So what should investors do?

At 62/100, our framework says:

🟢 Long-term diversified equities — Remain invested

🟢 AI / technology — Maintain strategic exposure

🟢 AI power & infrastructure — Increasingly interesting

🟡 Semiconductors — Strong theme, but don't blindly chase prices

🟡 Bitcoin / crypto — Strategic exposure with risk discipline

🟢 Gold — Useful portfolio hedge

💵 Cash / short-term fixed income — Keep some dry powder

🔴 Highly leveraged investments — Not yet an ideal environment for aggressive deployment

The distinction matters.

You don't have to choose between being 100% invested and sitting 100% in cash.

Capital allocation is a spectrum.

This week's takeaway:

62/100 — Constructive, but Selective.

Liquidity says the environment is supportive.

Credit markets aren't showing major stress.

AI investment remains powerful.

But high long-term interest rates tell us not to become complacent.

Stay invested in structural opportunities.

Keep some liquidity.

Don't chase.

And increase risk when the evidence improves—not simply because markets are going up.

Weekly Capital Intelligence |

For financial education purposes. This is an original research analytics developed by the author called Liquidity Transmission Market Framework for analyzing liquidity, valuation, and risk

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