03/02/2026
In its first Board Meeting for 2026 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced that the official Cash Rate will be hiked by 0.25 percentage points, bringing same to 3.85% per annum.
This marks the first time the RBA has moved the Cash Rate since it reduced it to 3.60% on 13 August 2025 with the decision to increase the Cash Rate being unanimous. Today's decision will not be a surprise for many, but its effect on the Housing Market remains to be seen.
In a statement, the RBA Board said, "A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that Inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025. While part of the pick-up in Inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and Labour Market conditions are a little tight. The Board judged that Inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the Cash Rate target."
From the perspective of P & J Financial Solutions, the February Cash Rate increase has been driven by a combination of a stickier-than-expected Inflation rate and a Labour Market that has remained tighter than many predicted.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to December 2025, up from 3.4% in the year to November, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The trimmed mean also rose to 3.3% in the 12 months to December, from 3.2% in the year to November. For the December quarter, Inflation published at 3.6% – the highest level in six quarters; with the RBA’s Inflation target range remaining at 2% –3%; whilst at the same time, Unemployment edged down month on month from 4.3% to 4.2%.
In January, the RBA Deputy Governor warned that the chances of near-term easing remain “very low”. “Inflation above 3%, let’s be clear, is too high,” Andrew Hauser said. “I think we all remember the pain and the difficulty, many of us are still working that through, of that persistent high period of Inflation over the last few years. It’s our job to ensure that doesn't happen again.”
The hike was widely anticipated by the major banks, with all four forecasting a 0.25 basis point move; whilst at P & J Financial Solutions, we are of the view that the RBA wanted to be on the front foot and commenced Interest Rate hikes straight away, to ensure things don't get out of hand. We have noticed some caution in the markets in prior weeks and now the shift will be toward looking at whether this is the beginning of a new upward trend in Interest Rates, or if this will be a one-and-done hike for this point in time. Over the coming weeks, we hope that we will gain further clarity around what the future is going to look like.
One valid argument that abounds at present is that rising Interest Rates will do little to slow Australia’s property market, as persistent Housing shortages and strong Investor demand will keep prices elevated. Interest Rates alone are not just going to do anything, because in the end, they are not building enough homes for the people that want to purchase. So ultimately that comes down to supply and demand. If the supply is not there, the demand is going to increase regardless of what the economics are outside of that. This is always going to be one of the factors that keeps heat in the market, and you cannot change it overnight.
Supply constraints will continue to underpin Housing prices, so we are not talking about a sharp correction. But higher borrowing costs do slow things down. We expect price growth to moderate through 2026. For borrowers, this means less borrowing power and a more challenging lending environment; which tends to cool buyer urgency, encourage more cautious bidding, and bring a more measured feel to auctions and private treaty negotiations.
The higher Interest Rate environment also makes it tougher for First Home Buyers looking to take advantage of the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme, as higher Interest Rates can reduce borrowing capacity for those trying to enter the market. The RBA Board has made it clear that Inflation is likely to remain above target for some time, driven by substantial growth in private demand, including both household spending and investment, and escalating house prices.
As the year progresses the Economic and Financial landscape holds a degree of considerable uncertainty and volatility and as such the need for experienced guidance and knowledgeable advice remain critical for all Borrowers (both personal and / or business) when reviewing and considering their financing options be they for new, increased, or additional finance; or simply a “health check” on their current Lending facilities. Accordingly, please do not wait or hesitate to reach out to Paul or Jason at P & J Financial Solutions for such advice, guidance, and assistance in a professional and friendly manner.