Lion IQ, 159 Main Street Osborne Park, Perth (2026)

03/06/2026

Economy slows as rate rises bite

Australia's economy is losing steam, and the latest data makes that clear.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the March quarter, but the quarterly result told a different story. Growth came in at just 0.3% for the quarter, a sharp drop from the 0.9% recorded in the previous three months.

ABS head of national accounts Grace Kim said rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour, resulting in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expects further softening ahead. Governor Michele Bullock has noted that monetary policy works with a lag, meaning the full impact of this year's rate rises is still to be felt. In its most recent statement on monetary policy, the RBA is forecasting annual economic growth to ease to 1.3% by the end of 2026.

02/06/2026

Budget housing modelling: a tale of two forecasts

How much will the federal budget's housing tax changes actually affect supply and rents? The answer depends on whose modelling you read.

Treasury projects a net increase of around 12,000 new homes over the next four years and a modest rent rise of about $2 per week. Independent modelling commissioned by Master Builders Australia, the Property Council of Australia and the Real Estate Institute of Australia tells a different story.

Qaive and Tulipwood Economics found the combined package – negative gearing changes, CGT reforms and the $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund – would reduce new dwelling starts by more than 8,700 over four years, lower GDP by $864 million and push rents up by $9 per week by 2029/30.

The negative gearing changes are identified as the primary driver of the supply reduction. While the $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund is expected to add homes, the modellers estimate it will deliver around 5,300 new dwellings over four years – well below the government's projection of 26,000.

01/06/2026

Australia's housing market hits pause

Australia's housing market essentially ground to a halt in May, with Cotality's national Home Value Index recording 0.0% growth for the month.

But a flat national number masks a growing divide. Sydney fell 0.9% and Melbourne dropped 0.8%, both now sitting meaningfully below their November peaks. Perth and Darwin, meanwhile, rose 1.5%, and Brisbane gained 0.9%.

Cotality research director Tim Lawless said the direction is becoming more consistent across the country, even if the pace still varies. "Most markets are losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify."

Higher interest rates, stretched affordability and the federal budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are all bearing down on buyer demand. National home sales over the past three months were 2.2% lower than a year ago.

“The largest drop in estimated sales can be seen in Sydney and Melbourne, down 17.0% and 14.2% on levels a year ago,” said Mr Lawless. “These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers.”

01/06/2026

Older investors now make up a larger share of the market

Australia’s property investor market is gradually getting older, according to new research from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The median age of investors increased from 45 in 2000 to 51 in 2023, while the share aged over 60 rose from 12% to 28%. Over the same period, the share of investors aged under 30 roughly halved, based on the RBA’s data.

Part of that reflects Australia’s ageing population more broadly, but it also highlights how long-term property ownership can build wealth over time.

Many older investors purchased property decades ago when prices were significantly lower and have had more time to pay down debt. That has likely helped many remain active in the market later in life.

At the same time, rising property prices, larger deposits and borrowing constraints mean younger Australians are generally entering the market later than previous generations.

29/05/2026

Holiday home owners face tougher tax rules

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) is tightening the rules around holiday home tax deductions, in a move that could catch out many property owners from 1 July 2026.

Under the new guidance, owners will generally only be able to claim deductions such as interest, council rates and depreciation if the property is genuinely being used to earn income. That means making it available for rent during genuine peak periods, such as Christmas, Easter or local high-demand seasons.

Private use will also need to be limited. A week or two away in the off-season may be acceptable, but owners who regularly use the property themselves could lose access to major deductions and will need to apportion expenses carefully.

The changes are significant because the ATO’s previous position was more flexible, often allowing deductions if owners made reasonable efforts to rent the property out.

27/05/2026

Headline inflation falls, but deeper pressures are building

First, the good news: the latest inflation figures have probably reduced the chances of another interest rate hike in June.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, annual inflation slowed from 4.6% in March to 4.2% in April. That was broadly in line with market expectations and will likely, at least, provide some breathing room for borrowers after the February, March and May rate hikes already delivered this year.

However, the fall in headline inflation was heavily influenced by lower petrol prices after the federal government temporarily halved the fuel excise. As a result, the headline figure may look healthier than the underlying reality.

This explains why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will probably be more concerned about the trimmed mean inflation figure, which actually increased from 3.3% to 3.4% during the month.

That’s significant because trimmed mean inflation strips out volatile items like fuel and gives a better indication of whether higher costs are spreading through the broader economy. And right now, they are.

Higher energy, freight and construction costs are increasingly flowing into other goods and services, suggesting inflation pressures are becoming more embedded rather than fading away.

26/05/2026

Buyers gain more negotiating power as listings rise

Home buyers are starting to regain some bargaining power, with Cotality data showing vendor discounting rates edged higher in April 2026 as listings continue building across many markets.

The median vendor discount across the combined capitals increased to 3.1% over the three months to April, up from 2.9% in recent months. Regional markets also saw discounting rise slightly to 3.3%.

The figures suggest sellers are becoming more flexible on price as buyers gain more choice and competition between listings increases.

Sydney recorded a median discounting rate of 3.2%, while Melbourne sat at 3.1%. Brisbane remained relatively tight at 2.6%, highlighting how conditions still vary significantly between cities.

The rise in discounting also aligns with softer market conditions emerging after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hikes earlier this year, which have weighed on borrowing capacity and buyer confidence.

25/05/2026

Refinancing activity remains elevated

Australians are still refinancing in large numbers as borrowers search for more competitive interest rates and flexible loan features.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, owner-occupiers refinanced $42.9 billion worth of loans in the March quarter, while investors refinanced another $25.3 billion.

While quarterly growth has started to level out, refinancing volumes remain well above year-ago levels.

That’s no surprise given how much the lending landscape has shifted in 2026. The Reserve Bank’s rate rises in February, March and May have pushed many borrowers to reassess whether they’re still getting a competitive deal.

Competition between lenders also remains fierce, particularly for borrowers with strong equity and repayment histories.

Importantly, refinancing is not always just about securing a lower rate. Some borrowers are restructuring debt, consolidating loans or accessing equity

24/05/2026

Australia's banking system passes a tough stress test

Australia just passed one of the toughest stress tests in the world and came through with flying colours.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the country's banking regulator, confirmed in its May 2026 System Risk Outlook that our banking system can withstand a scenario combining a deep global recession, sharply higher funding costs and serious operational disruptions, all at once.

Banks remain well capitalised. Liquidity is strong. The system is built to keep lending even if conditions get significantly worse.

But while APRA says the system is strong, it also warned risks are rising.

The regulator is paying close attention to geopolitical instability, cyber threats, artificial intelligence and increasing competition among lenders.

Housing remains a key area of focus, with APRA noting that elevated property prices and high household debt continue to create vulnerabilities. The regulator also observed that some lenders are making exceptions outside their normal lending standards as competition intensifies.

Importantly, APRA said it still has additional macroprudential tools available if lending risks continue increasing.

21/05/2026

Unemployment rises to 4.5%

Australia’s unemployment rate has climbed to 4.5%, the highest level since late 2021, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

Employment fell by 18,600 people in April, while unemployment rose by 33,000. Female employment also recorded its first decline since August 2025.

Importantly, this may reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates again in June.

The RBA has already lifted the cash rate three times this year to combat inflation, which remains elevated following the recent oil price shock and rising global tensions in the Middle East.

But the labour market is now clearly cooling. Higher borrowing costs, weaker consumer spending and falling business confidence are starting to affect hiring decisions.

That creates a difficult balancing act for the RBA, which is trying to slow inflation without pushing the economy too hard.

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