12/06/2026
Fielding a few questions on SpaceX.
Its current valuation of $1.75 trillion works out to roughly 100× its revenue of $18 billion — not profit, revenue. It actually ran at a loss last year, and while it did post a profit of around $4 billion in 2024, that doesn’t come close to justifying a trillion‑plus valuation on traditional metrics.
Since inception, it has accumulated $42 billion in net operating losses. Despite this, SpaceX has secured an unprecedented fast‑track inclusion into the index, meaning a huge wave of passive money will be forced to buy in immediately. That alone feels… off.
I acknowledge the potential — SpaceX could become a true end‑to‑end AI and infrastructure company. But paying 99× revenue for a business in an industry that hasn’t yet proven sustainable profitability is extraordinary. It has shades of the early‑2000s tech bubble, just amplified.
For this valuation to make sense, SpaceX would need to increase revenue a hundred‑fold, and operate with high efficiency, just to land in a reasonable range. That’s not a bet I’m willing to make.
