17/07/2026
The RBA on pause. Parliament hasn't passed budget legislation. But lenders have already moved.
Three things are true this week. Only one of them made the headlines.
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, its first pause this year, after three straight rises. Repayments aren't going up for now. Breathe.
The Budget changes everyone's talking about include winding back negative gearing for new investors, the capital gains changes are still waiting to be made into law. The Government aims to pass it through the Senate during the sitting fortnight 22 June – 2 July 2026.
Lenders however aren’t waiting. Many have already started stripping negative gearing out of how they assess investors, and that alone is cutting investor borrowing capacity by around 20%.
If you already have a loan, some lenders are quietly cutting fixed rates saving their sharpest deals for new customers. A hold doesn't mean your rate is frozen. Worth checking yours is still competitive.
That's the part most people miss. You can wait for the RBA. You can wait for Parliament.
But the banks make their own judgements and policies, and they're already changing them.
What it means, depending on where you sit:
If you're buying: for some buyers a steady cash rate makes planning easier, and competition has eased. Get your finance sorted first, so your offer is real when the right place comes up.
If you're investing: your borrowing capacity may have dropped even though no law has changed. Worth speaking to us first before you commit to anything.
If you already have a loan: when rates sit still, lenders often save their sharpest pricing for new customers and quietly leave existing ones behind. Worth checking yours is still competitive.
So what happens next? Even the big four can't agree.
They lined up behind the same June call, rates on hold, then split completely on where things go from here.
NAB just abandoned its tip for another 25-basis-point rise, now calling 4.35% the peak and forecasting the next move to be a cut in Q2 2027. CBA and ANZ have backed an extended hold since May, with cuts starting in the second half of 2027. Westpac is the outlier — it still expects the RBA to hike in August and September, blaming stubborn inflation.
One decision. Four different roadmaps.
Which is exactly why planning beats predicting and having a broker in your corner who is up to date with the fast changing bank policy matters more to you today than what a forecast that may not hold.
If you want me to check your rate is still doing its job or look at what banks policy make impact your borrowing send a message.
