09/06/2026
NAB tips rate cuts from 2027
Good news for borrowers: NAB thinks the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is done raising rates.
The major lender has dropped its forecast for an August hike, and is now expecting the cash rate to hold at its current level of 4.35% before cuts begin in the second quarter of 2027.
The reason? Economic momentum is clearly fading. Both GDP growth and NAB's own business survey point to a slowdown, with growth likely having already peaked for this cycle.
That said, don't expect rate relief anytime soon. Underlying inflation is still forecast to stay above the RBA's 2–3% target until mid-2027, which means the central bank is unlikely to move quickly.
"We have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing," NAB chief economist Sally Auld said.
If NAB's forecasts prove correct, the cash rate would fall to 3.6% by the end of 2027.